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1MToWin's NFL Edge: Week 4
2By JMToWin, Last Updated 2 hours ago (DK Premium)
3
4Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!
5Click here if you’re a FanDuel subscriber and wish to read this article!
6Week 4
7
8Every week, things change in the NFL. Player usage changes. Player roles change. Some players improve, while others – either because of eroding skills, or because of injury – begin to perform worse. Matchups we thought were good turn out to not be so good after all, and matchups we thought were bad end up being good matchups to pick on.
9These are often the sorts of things that our DFS competition is slow to adjust to. These are also the sorts of things that pricing algorithms on DFS sites can be slow to adjust to. If we can be quicker to adjust than our opponents, and if we can be quicker to adjust than pricing algorithms, we can gain a huge edge over time.
10Just some thoughts to help you as you start your week. Make sure you are challenging your thinking. Make sure you are opening your mind and are allowing yourself to think differently than others.
11On a separate note: If you sent me a free H2H invite after reading last week’s article, and I failed to pick it up, there are three possible reasons why this happened:
121) You sent an invite for a slate I wasn’t playing.
132) You sent an invite on Sunday morning (I was working on rosters right up until lock on Sunday and did not have time to do anything else that morning).
143) I just plain missed it. I had over 500 free H2H invites, so I’m sure I missed a few in the shuffle.
15If you want to keep checking out my lineup each week, feel free to keep sending H2Hs. While I will be playing across all sites, and across most slates, as the season progresses, my main focus each week is the DraftKings main slate, so please send invites for that slate. Also, if I happen to miss your invite, I offer my apologies in advance. I’ll do the best I can to make sure I enter my team into all of them.
16But enough talk. Let’s dig in.
17Let’s get ready to crush Week 4.
18Dolphins at Bengals
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20On the one hand, the narrative that the Dolphins cannot run the ball is a bit overblown. Yes, they have the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL so far this year, but they also have the fifth-fewest rushing attempts. Their 4.1 yards per carry as a team is nothing special, but it’s also not putrid. It’s just about average (and that’s with a long run of only 17 yards, so even in the small sample size of only 61 rush attempts, things aren’t skewed a ton by one big run).
21Of course, that’s largely irrelevant information. “The Dolphins aren’t awful at running the ball – they just aren’t running it a ton.” Okay. They still aren’t running it a ton, so we still don’t want to use them – right?
22Right.
23What’s more, the Dolphins literally cycled four running backs through their rotation this last week. Although one of these guys could certainly pop off for a touchdown or two, there is no scenario in which any of these guys is a justifiable play.
24While some will be tempted to shift to “attacking the Bengals through the air” (with the thinking going something like, “The Dolphins can’t run and just had a good game through the air, and the Bengals just got lit up by Trevor Siemian, of all people”), I’ll be completely content to stay away myself if I have time to play the Thursday night slate this week. Typically, the Bengals’ defense slows down the run with talent and slows down the pass with scheme – dropping lots of guys into coverage and making it difficult for the quarterback to find openings. Last week, the Bengals – in facing the run-heavy Broncos – adjusted to focus on stopping the run, essentially daring Siemian to beat them. With the Dolphins having a low likelihood of run game success with their sub-average backfield rotation against the stout Bengals’ front that – oh, by the way – gets back Vontaze Burfict this week, we can expect the Bengals to revert to their typical scheme. This is going to make life difficult for Ryan Tannehill, on a short week, on the road.
25Guys I don’t mind if you feel you have to go here: There is really only one. Jarvis Landry. His ceiling is not as high as he has made it appear through the first couple weeks of the season, but he’s still one of the most reliably-targeted wide receivers in football, and the Bengals’ pass defense is generally of the “bend but don’t break” variety – preventing big plays, while being more willing to give up stuff underneath.
26Unlike last year, when A.J. Green was one of the most reliably under-targeted receivers in football with an average of 8.25 targets per game, he is getting fed the rock this season, with target totals of 13, eight, and 11 through the first three weeks. This game sets up well for Green against the Dolphins’ weak cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Maxwell. There is always a risk in a guy like Green – who is the only serious pass game weapon on this team at the moment – that the defense will sell out to stop him, and will force the offense to go elsewhere (as the Steelers did with Green in Week 2, and as teams have been doing with Julio Jones all year in Atlanta), so he is certainly fade-worthy from a game theory perspective, on a Thursday night slate where he is likely to draw a lot of ownership attention. But the matchup is good enough on paper that I sure won’t talk you off him, either.
27This also sets up as the sort of game in which Jeremy Hill should eat. Of course, it seems that “Gio games” always turn into “Hill games,” and “Hill games” always turn into “Gio games.” Hill is still a touchdown-dependent piece, and any articles you read that try to tell you “Hill is now the clear guy to roster in this backfield” are probably driven more by recency bias than by anything else; honestly, we’ve been seeing such articles – one way or the other in this backfield – for the last three seasons. Still, the Bengals are large home favorites, and they are playing a below-average run defense that, schematically, leaves holes open in the middle that a guy like Hill can run through. Hill won’t sneak by anyone, but he’s certainly a viable play in this spot.
28Colts at Jaguars
29
30Let’s talk about a few things we know about London games:
311) With both teams traveling across the pond, we essentially have a “West Coast to East Coast” travel situation, in terms of players’ internal clocks – but even more pronounced, as each team has to travel and play under these unusual conditions.
322) To a certain extent, at least, the travel (and the early start) shortens the week for these teams. This game is a bit like a Sunday game after a Monday night game.
333) The field conditions at Wembley Stadium have been notoriously bad.
344) An inordinately high number of games played in London have turned into blowouts (which, I’m sure, is doing wonders for getting fans over there interested in the NFL…).
35We also know, in regards to these defenses, that each side has struggled this year in terms of both consistency and, really, slowing down opponents at all.
36Putting it all together, I expect this game to be sloppy, yes – but I also expect it to be high-scoring.
37Let’s start with the “away” team – the Indianapolis Colts:
38Somewhat quietly, T.Y. Hilton currently ranks fourth in the NFL in targets (and he joins Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, and Larry Fitzgerald as the only guys with double-digit targets in all three games to start the year). With Donte Moncrief out, Hilton is an even more integral part of this offense. And with the Colts running more “12” personnel – two tight ends, two wide receivers, and a running back – this gets Hilton back on the outside more, after he spent large chunks of the first two weeks in the slot. With Hilton bouncing between the slot and the outside, we get a nice mix of safety and upside with the sorts of targets he is receiving. I will point out that with Jalen Ramsey playing well to begin his career, the Jags’ pass D is going to be better this year than most people think; currently, they already rank 12th in pass defense DVOA and sixth in yards-per-attempt. But I don’t think the messy field at Wembley, against the Colts, is the spot in which this pass defense will suddenly start impressing the public. There is risk I am wrong here, but I still don’t mind playing Hilton on Thursday-start slates, given his high usage and high floor/ceiling combo in this offense.
39Frank Gore can get you a solid game, but is highly unlikely to be a week-winner. Andrew Luck has a good shot at solid production here, but there are other places I would rather go at quarterback, considering Luck’s price. And you could take a tourney flier on Phillip Dorsett or Chester Rogers, but I would only do so in massive-field tourneys where you are willing to take on risk for big upside (at a low floor) in order to get low ownership.
40Of course, the most integral piece of this offense outside of Hilton seems to be Jack Doyle. Doyle is still under-targeted for what you would really want (an average of five targets per game), but it is worth noting that he and Dwayne Allen have an identical number of targets through three weeks, and Doyle has been far more effective with his looks. Although the Jags’ DvP against tight ends looks good so far, their defensive scheme is fundamentally susceptible over the middle.
41Last year, one of our favorite DFS strategies was to target the non-number-one receiver against the Colts. Vontae Davis would often shadow an opponent’s number one guy, and the number two guy would therefore rack up a massive number of looks against the Colts’ poor performers across the rest of the field. Last year, in two games against the Colts, Allen Robinson totaled only five catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, across 16 targets. Allen Hurns, on the other hand, totaled 14 catches for 221 yards and two touchdowns, across 19 targets. Hurns remains a high-risk, touchdown-dependent play here, but we should expect Davis to match up with Robinson, and we should expect Hurns to get extra looks as a result, making him a solid tourney option.
42The Colts currently rank 32nd in DVOA against the tight end, after ranking 20th last year. With the Jags’ passing offense flowing primarily through Robinson, Hurns, and Julius Thomas, and with this game expected to be high-scoring, Thomas makes for a strong option this week as well. Also, don’t overlook Blake Bortles, who is always in play in a shootout – especially against a team in Indy that does not force a ton of turnovers.
43The one place on the Jags I am not particularly interested is the backfield. Even with as bad as the Colts’ run defense is, the workload split in this backfield makes each guy (T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory) pretty unappealing to me.
44Bills at Patriots
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46If you ever get a chance to, I encourage you to watch a number of NFL games from start to finish, paying particular attention to the effort level of the players away from the action. You will notice that a shockingly large percentage of the time, you see guys running lazy routes when they are not the primary read, or you see guys giving half-hearted efforts at blocking away from the play, while those they are blocking give half-hearted efforts to work off the block. It seems you see this even more in non-division games than you do in divisional matchups; it seems you see this a ton in the second or third quarters of games, when the excitement of the start of the game has worn off, and the pressure of the end of the game has not yet kicked in.
47Watch some games and keep an eye out for this. Then watch a Patriots game. You’ll see one of the big reasons why the Patriots tend to do better in the regular season most years than other teams (and also, you’ll see one of the reasons the Patriots – who tend to have less talent than their opponents – often end up with much closer games in the playoffs, when their opponents are exerting maximum effort on each play).
48I bring that up because these “rah rah” coaches – guys like Rex Ryan, and Jeff Fisher, who succeed (or…“succeed from time to time,” I should say) by “motivating their guys to play hard,” rather than by out-scheming the opposing coach – do end up with some nice performances every once in a while. We saw that last week against the Cardinals. Watching that game, you saw a Cardinals team that was going through the motions, and a Bills team that was flying around the field. I think we’ll see the same thing this week against the Patriots – in a division game, against a coach Rex Ryan always pumps his team up to play.
49Honestly, I expect this game to be relatively low-scoring. Regardless of who is under center for the Patriots (right now, it looks like it will be Jimmy Garoppolo, though that may just be Belichick shenanigans), there are better passing games to look to. The Bills are certainly exploitable through the air, especially if Ronald Darby is out again, but if they play to their capabilities (which I expect them to do), this is still a tough matchup. Given what Garoppolo did to the Dolphins through a couple quarters in his last start, I can see the appeal, but I expect a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair.
50Furthermore, I expect the Pats to continue doing what they have been doing in the absence of Tom Brady: run the ball with LeGarrette Blount. As long as the Patriots do not fall far behind, they will be content to pick up only 20 or 25 yards on 12 Blount carries in the first half, as they know that – eventually (as we have seen each of the first three weeks) – Blount will wear down the opposing defense and break off a few chunk gains. With the Bills currently ranking 11th in pass defense DVOA and 21st in run defense DVOA, we can comfortably predict that Belichick and McDaniels will continue with what has been effective so far this season: short passes, misdirection to take advantage of the opponent’s aggressiveness, and a bunch of runs with Blount.
51If Sammy Watkins plays this week, the Patriots will make it their focus to erase him. This will render the Bills’ passing attack an unpredictable mess for fantasy purposes. If Watkins does not return, this also leaves us with an unpredictable mess. If you want to go here (and if Watkins is out again), here are the notable wide receiver targets (and production) from Week 3:
52Robert Woods: 8 targets, 6 catches, 51 yards
53Marquise Goodwin: 5 targets, 1 catch, 6 yards
54Walt Powell: 5 targets, 3 catches, 28 yards
55Woods played 95% of the snaps; Goodwin played 83%; Powell played 64%.
56The final place to look in this game is LeSean McCoy. With 15 to 17 carries and four to five targets in each game this season, he’s a viable option – one who regularly goes overlooked in tourneys. He’s the likeliest member of the Bills to find the end zone, and his usage should give him a floor of at least 10 (FanDuel) to 12 (DraftKings) points. Also – as much as Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower (the latter of whom should return this week) create a difficult run game matchup – the Pats’ “bend but don’t break” brand of defense should allow Shady to pick up some chunk gains between the 20s. There are probably a few high-priced running backs I like more, but I certainly don’t mind Shady this week, either – especially given how low his ownership perpetually is. The opportunity will be there, and the matchup should work in his favor to at least some extent.
57Titans at Texans
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59Only the Jets – with their horrific performance at Arrowhead last weekend – have gifted more fantasy points to opposing defenses this year than the Titans. Tennessee has the fourth-most turnovers on the season (as well as the fourth-worst turnover differential). While the Texans are going to be missing J.J. Watt, and that certainly hurts them as a defense, keep in mind that the teams against which the Titans have managed to give the ball away so many times already this year are as follows: Vikings, Lions, Raiders. While the Vikings are an undeniably awesome defense, the other two teams on that list have had very disappointing starts to the season. I don’t usually go out of my way to recommend DST options – particularly because that’s usually the last position I end up deciding on myself, which means that I may recommend something on Wednesday that I am not still high on by Saturday – so let’s just say I’m not “recommending” the Texans’ D. But I am saying you should give them a strong look.
60This is also a good opportunity for me to mention that as the season goes on, I’ll be updating this article later in the week. This should be the last week during which I am unable to do so – so starting next week, check back for any late additions (which I will note at the top of the article, to make sure you can easily spot them).
61As for the viability of the Titans’ offense…
62For starters, the Titans rank dead last this year in situation-neutral pace. Basically, the plan under Mike Mularkey seems to be: “We can’t really keep up with our opponents, so let’s slow down the game and hope we can keep things close.” Additionally, the Titans have thrown the ball only 33 times each of their last two games. Against a tough pass defense, it’s tough to trust Tajae Sharpe – especially with the low ceiling he has shown to start the year. Remember: you should not just be looking for someone who can hit his salary multiplier; you should also be looking for guys who can take your team over the top. While Sharpe is a consistently solid play, I’ll be surprised if he has more than one “big week” this season.
63The Texans generally slow down tight ends as well, though a large part of this is the simple fact that tight ends have to stay in to help block Watt. With Watt out, I don’t mind Delanie Walker (though there is certainly enough value at tight end that you don’t have to go here against a tough defense, either).
64Finally: DeMarco Murray. Each week, while writing this article, I try not to think too deeply into my own opinions, biases, roster leanings, etc. Instead, I try to simply put in the research and reach my hypotheses in as unbiased a manner as possible. I then go back and read this article on Thursday, and I mark down all the players I seem to like. Last week, DeMarco was near the top of the list, as he appears to be a lock at this point for 12+ carries and 5+ targets. I’ll say two things here: 1) That sort of workload is a lot more valuable against the Raiders than it is against the Texans. But 2) The Texans are not great at defending backs out of the backfield, so Murray should still get some nice floor-stats from his pass game work. This seems to be a solid, but non-elite spot for Murray – though he could provide tourney upside at low ownership if he stumbles into the end zone for a touchdown or two.
65In spite of playing a pair of high-powered offenses in the Lions and Raiders (along with an opening weekend against the Vikings), the Titans games have not combined for more than 41 points a single time this year. In fact, the game against the Raiders combined for only 27 points; the game against the Lions combined for only 31 points; and while the game against the Vikings combined for 41 points, two of the Vikings’ touchdowns came off defensive scores. Take those away, and you have another game in the 27- to 31-point range.
66Additionally, the Texans – after running their offense at the league’s third-fastest pace last year (situation neutral) – currently rank 20th in pace of play. This should be a slower-paced game than we would have expected coming into the year, and it should be a lower-scoring game than we would have expected. This is backed up by an Over/Under of 40.5, which is lower than we would have anticipated coming into the year.
67Another thing that’s different than we would have expected? The Titans rank 17th in pass defense DVOA, a year after finishing 24th. Look, 17th is still not good, but with the pace sure to be slow in this game and each offense set to get off fewer plays than we normally see in an NFL game, 17th is also not an awesome spot to pick on. Part of this, of course, is the defensive scheme of Dick LeBeau. But another part is the so-far improved play of Jason McCourty – who was a very solid corner before falling off the last couple years.
68McCourty and burn victim Perrish Cox play their sides and almost never move around – with Cox sticking at left corner. This should get Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins an equal share of looks on Cox. Not that McCourty is a dangerous matchup or anything, but Cox is downright generous. Each receiver is in play – with Hopkins obviously the more dependable guy, given the problems Fuller is sure to continue to have with drops, but with eight-plus targets a pretty solid bet for both of them (and with Fuller – while obviously claiming a lower floor – having a similar ceiling to Hopkins, at a lower price).
69When I first saw “Houston at home against the Titans,” I got excited about Brock Osweiler, due to the formerly fast pace of the Texans, the formerly poor pass defense of the Titans, and the faith I have in Bill O’Brien as a quarterback-whisperer. But as long as the Texans are slowing down the pace and the Titans are playing better pass D, I feel we can probably find more upside elsewhere.
70Lamar Miller is the final guy to look to here (no, we’re not looking to Ryan Griffin; the tight end is not a major part of this offense, and Griffin only got so many looks in Week 3 because the Patriots were content to leave him open as they focused on erasing Nuk and Fuller). Miller will be a consideration for me every week this season, as long as he is healthy. He quietly has the second-most carries in the NFL (only one behind Blount), and is also averaging about four targets per game. He has started his season with a string of poor RB matchups: the Bears (before injuries decimated their front seven), the Chiefs, and the Patriots. He now gets another tough running back matchup in the Titans. This makes him more of a tourney play than a cash play (his high usage obviously makes him justifiable in cash, but his price makes him less appealing), but he certainly has the upside to pop off for a big game.
71Lions at Bears
72
73The Lions are allowing the most yards-per-carry in the NFL.
74The Lions are allowing the eighth-most yards-per-attempt in the NFL.
75The Lions currently rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 27th in run defense DVOA.
76What about the other side of this matchup?
77The Bears are almost exactly middle of the pack in both YPC allowed and YPA allowed, but they rank 26h in both pass defense and run defense DVOA.
78The Lions also rank second in the NFL in “situation neutral” pace (a fact that seems to be going a bit overlooked by the public at the moment). And while the Bears’ offense tries to slow things down when they can (29th in “situation neutral” pace), they have found themselves in so many holes this year, they actually rank sixth in overall pace. This game could also go overlooked to an extent by the DFS community, with an Over/Under of 46.5 Even with there only being 12 games on the main, Sunday slate, there are three games that currently have a higher Over/Under (Carolina at Atlanta, New Orleans at San Diego, and Kansas City at Pittsburgh). This makes this a great spot to uncover things we can target.
79The first place to look, of course, is the place very few people will overlook: Jordan Howard. I don’t play much season-long fantasy these days, but I am still in four leagues I have been in for a while. I’m not very good in those leagues, but I did pick up Jordan Howard two weeks ago (and I tried to trade for him in the fourth league, where someone else already owned him), as he just looked so much better than Jeremy Langford, and I figured it was only a matter of time until he got his opportunity. Now that Langford is out, that timeline has been accelerated. My point, of course, is that this is not just some third-string scrub who is only rosterable because of usage; this is a guy who was probably going to take over this backfield pretty quickly anyway, and who shapes up as an excellent play this week. Remember: the main formula we should be using in assessing plays is Talent, Matchup, Opportunity, and Price. Howard has positive grades on all four fronts this week.
80While I am writing this on Wednesday morning, I doubt the following sentence would be any different if I were writing this on Saturday night:
81The quarterback situation this week is a bit murky for the Bears. Because, you see, if you withhold injury information, you probably give yourself a big advantage (Football according to John Fox). Which, by the way, can you imagine what it would be like to be John Fox? You get fired from the Broncos and they win a Super Bowl as soon as you leave. You run a bunch of on-field talent out of town in Chicago. And then you can’t win games. Awesome.
82Anyhow, I’m not interested in the quarterback on the Bears’ side regardless of who pulls the start, and I also do not think the outlook on either side is impacted much.
83In looking up the numbers for Alshon Jeffery last year against the Lions, I was reminded that this is the same matchup that brought me a 12th-place finish in the Millionaire Maker last season. In the first game between these two teams last year, we talked in the NFL Edge (and again on the Friday night Round Table with myself, Jeff Collins, and Adam Levitan) about how this game had a much lower Over/Under than it should have – which is probably the position we find ourselves in again. In that game, Alshon went 8-147-1 on 11 targets – a reminder that while Darius Slay is good, he’s not a guy we absolutely have to avoid. (I will point out that we should not underestimate Slay. Most of the big stats Jordy Nelson racked up last week came from the Packers getting him matched up on linebackers, and his touchdown against Slay came on a play on which the refs missed a clear offensive pass interference, as Jordy pushed off just before the ball arrived.) Regardless of who starts at QB this weekend, Alshon is firmly in play.
84We can also look to Kevin White as a high-upside tourney flier in this one. White has pathetic efficiency on the year (only 13 catches and 132 yards on a whopping 27 targets), but even before game flow forced 14 targets his way last week, he had target totals of seven and six through the first two weeks of the season. He could easily see another seven-plus targets in this one, and while his floor remains low, he has the athletic talent to pop off for a big game against a secondary that is very weak away from Slay.
85The final spot to look in this game is Zach Miller. Detroit ranks 27th in tight end DVOA so far this season, and Miller is a dependable piece of this offense. Especially if Cutler is back in, I expect something more like the four to five targets Miller had the first couple weeks, but another nine targets is not out of the question – especially if Hoyer is the one slinging the ball.
86The Lions’ offense is a DFS gift right now, in that there is a very narrow field of players worth considering, as their usage so far has been pretty straightforward. I’ll start at the top:
87The Lions currently rank seventh in the NFL in pass attempts, while ranking 24th in rushing attempts. Matthew Stafford has thrown the ball 39, 40, and 41 times to start the season. He is one of the top plays on the weekend, regardless of price.
88Marvin Jones has target totals of ten, 11, and eight. His worst game this year yielded 85 yards. He is sure to be chalky this week, after posting such a massive game last weekend, but he’s certainly in play anyway against a banged-up secondary, in what should be a high-scoring game.
89Eric Ebron has target totals of five, seven, and eight to begin the year. He is an integral part of this offense, and the Bears rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end.
90The one tricky spot is the running back position. Theo Riddick received nine targets last week with the Lions in comeback mode, but he failed as a lead back, amassing only nine yards on ten carries. Meanwhile, Dwayne Washington had ten carries of his own and picked up 38 yards – looking very good in the process. One thing that stood out to me in re-watching this game on Tuesday was that the Lions appear to be comfortable deploying Washington freely in this offense. One instance in particular that highlighted this was a play on which Washington was originally lined up at wide receiver; Stafford changed the play, motioned Washington into the backfield, then handed the ball off to him. It was the sort of versatility – and the sort of comfort level in the offense – that many rookies do not show, and it bodes well for his usage moving forward. While Ameer Abdullah was never particularly useful himself, in spite of his talent – and we should therefore be cautious on Washington – I also think we will see more usage for Washington this weekend than many are expecting, with a solid showing against a beat-up Bears run D.
91Panthers at Falcons
92
93I put off writing up this game for a bit, as I figured it would be one of the more complicated ones to unravel. The main reason for this? We have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and yet, this game has the second-highest Over/Under on the main slate. That is a bit unusual – to say the least. After all, how often do you expect to see…well, for example, the Broncos in a game with an Over/Under above 50? Same goes for the Seahawks. Same goes for just about any top defense.
94Additionally, the Falcons are not generally regarded as an offense we want to depend on for a big offensive performance in a tough matchup. I mean, sure, they put up points this year against the Buccaneers, the Raiders, and the Saints…but that was the Buccaneers, the Raiders, and the Saints.
95The first thing we need to look at, then, is whether the Panthers’ defense is still legit.
96The second thing we need to look at is whether the Falcons’ offense is now legit.
97The third thing we’ll look at in this game is the history between these two teams.
98Finally, we’ll break down what our expectations are for this game, and where we think we can look for fantasy goodness.
99IS THE PANTHERS’ DEFENSE STILL LEGIT?
100In Week 1 – in a tough road test against the Broncos – the Panthers allowed 307 total net yards. That is a solid mark. They gave up 21 points, though that obviously cannot be pinned fully on the defense.
101In Week 2, the Panthers allowed 27 points to the 49ers, though 17 of those points came in the fourth quarter, when the Panthers were relaxing with a huge lead – allowing the 49ers to rack up garbage time stats and points.
102In Week 3, the Panthers allowed 22 points to the Vikings, though only 13 points were scored by the Vikings’ offense – which gained only 211 total net yards.
103Of course, that list of games/teams also reveals that the Panthers have not yet faced a really great offense.
104Currently, the Panthers rank tenth in pass defense DVOA and fifth in run defense DVOA. With the aforementioned caveat (that the Panthers have not faced a truly elite offense yet) still firmly in play, we can point out that the Panthers have allowed the third-fewest yards in the NFL, the fifth-fewest passing yards, and the sixth-fewest yards per carry. There is an idea out there that the Panthers without Josh Norman are no longer elite in the secondary, but Bene Benwikere and rookie James Bradberry would beg to differ. The Panthers also rank sixth in quarterback hurries, so they are still getting pressure on the QB. I’ll vote that this is still a good defense.
105IS THE FALCONS’ OFFENSE NOW LEGIT?
106Again: the Falcons may be the first truly elite offense the Panthers have faced this year – if the Falcons’ offense is, in fact, elite.
107Let’s start this exploration by admitting that the Falcons’ hot start means nothing from a predictive standpoint. The toughest pass game matchup they have faced so far has been the Bucs, with a pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. The Saints rank 27th. The Raiders rank 28th.
108The Falcons were also able to beat the Raiders and Saints by being more than just a one-dimensional offense – as they effectively mixed in the run game with both of their solid running backs. But the Saints rank 31st in run defense DVOA, and the Raiders rank 28th. Again: the Panthers rank fifth.
109The Falcons’ offensive line has been a strong point for them this year. But otherwise, they appear to be the same team they were before: Matt Ryan looks better than he looked last year, but he doesn’t necessarily look any better than he did in his “solid” seasons throughout his career in the past. Julio Jones is the only true threat in the pass game. Basically, this is an all-around solid but non-elite offense – one that will likely finish middle of the pack yet again in most major offensive categories.
110WHAT IS THE RECENT HISTORY BETWEEN THESE TEAMS?
111The last four games between these two teams – over the last two seasons – have yielded the following scores:
11220-13 – Atlanta (in Atlanta)
11338-0 – Carolina (in Charlotte)
11434-3 – Carolina (in Atlanta)
11519-17 – Atlanta (in Charlotte)
116At the risk of running into the same thing we ran into last week – when we pointed out that the Lions and Packers had gone a few years with lower-scoring games than many would expect between the two of them – I will draw your attention to the total points in those last four Panthers-Falcons games: 33, 38, 37, and 36 (if we want to go back further: 41, 44 in 2013).
117EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS GAME:
118The big thing here is that the Falcons still have no pass rush. This should allow Cam to pick apart the Falcons’ secondary, or to take off and run if nothing is open. If this happens, the Panthers could put up a big score – and, of course, this could lead to the Falcons putting up points in the third or fourth quarter as the Panthers let up a bit (as they are prone to doing). There are a few reasons I do not expect this second part (the “letting up”) to occur, however:
119Firstly, the Panthers have already accumulated more losses than they did all of last year. Pundits are (laughably) talking about the Falcons being the new kings of this division. The Panthers are highly unlikely to let up in this game. They don’t just want to beat the Falcons, I’m sure; they want to shut them down.
120Secondly, the Panthers will have a plan to erase Julio Jones. They can slow down Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman without having to scheme to do so, as they are good enough against the run to slow down that aspect of the Falcons’ offense. And this will leave Matt Ryan throwing to weapons that most teams would optimally not want to rely on against a tough opponent.
121If the Falcons’ defense somehow shows up to play and slows down the Panthers, I expect we’ll see something like the 20-13 or 19-17 Falcons wins listed above (not necessarily with the “Falcons win” part thrown in there – but just with the close, lower-scoring game). If the Falcons’ defense is unable to slow down the Panthers, I imagine we’ll see one of those 38-0 or 34-3 type scores.
122Ultimately, I have no interest in the Falcons’ offense. That comes with the disclaimer that I could be completely wrong about the Panthers’ D, and you should dig in yourself if you disagree with me; it also comes with the disclaimer that – as talked about earlier – you can still find upside in a tough matchup, but the floor for these guys is going to be much lower than it otherwise would be.
123As for the Panthers’ offense: the Falcons have done a good job neutralizing Greg Olsen in the past – limiting his targets, and limiting the effectiveness of these targets. The Falcons will also, likely, shadow Kelvin Benjamin with Desmond Trufant (a winnable matchup for Kelvin – though one that may lower his efficiency a bit). Both Olsen and Kelvin are in play this week, though there are – on paper – better point-per-dollar plays in other spots (though there is a “squeaky-wheel narrative” to at least pay attention to – wherein Kelvin could see lots of extra targets after being underused last week).
124Obviously, the run game of the Panthers is not particularly appealing, given the backfield split and the lack of goal line work. But that brings us to the Panthers’ goal line back: Cam Newton. Cam’s last six fantasy performances against Atlanta yielded the following fantasy scores:
12515.28 DK, 14.28 FD (-1 for lost fumble on DK; -2 on FD)
12623.00
12719.66
12820.68
12920.16
13020.16
131That comes, of course, with me pointing out that the Lions had handled Aaron Rodgers really well over the last two years, and the Packers had handled Matthew Stafford really well over the last two years – before last weekend. Anything can happen on any given weekend, but when Cam is the clear “quarterback everyone will want to pay up for,” those are numbers worth noting.
132Seahawks at Jets
133
134This should be one of the easier games for us to unravel this week. Let’s start with the home team:
135The Seahawks’ defense is not as effective on the road as they are at home. That’s true. But the difference is also not as stark as, say, the Chiefs (or…humorously, the 49ers). This is still an elite defense, regardless of where they are playing.
136The Jets, meanwhile, have an extremely narrow distribution of offensive usage. Almost all of their offense flows through four guys:
137Brandon Marshall
138Eric Decker
139Quincy Enunwa
140Matt Forte
141Both FanDuel and DraftKings have done a good job pricing the three superstars this week (Marshall, Decker, and Forte) – bumping down their prices to account for the matchup, and making them at least somewhat appealing in tournaments from a game theory perspective. Basically, while the floor is lower for all these guys in this matchup, tough matchups generally impact ownership far more than they impact ceiling. To put that another way: You take on risk rostering any of these guys, because the matchup sucks…but ownership is sure to be low on them, and these guys still have the same ceiling they always have. Because I prefer guys with a high floor/ceiling combo whenever I can roster such guys (and because we can almost always find low ownership on guys with a high floor/ceiling combo, as well), I’ll surely stay away from all three of these guys. But all of them are in play as high-risk, high-reward tourney options.
142The same goes for Quincy Enunwa, whose usage is very much for real. While Enunwa does not necessarily have the tight-spaces skills that Decker has perfected over the years, he does have pretty much the same role in the offense that Decker has – running more than half his routes from the slot, and taking advantage of the middle of the field where Ryan Fitzpatrick likes to work. Again: the floor is low in this matchup, but given Enunwa’s price and low expected ownership (and given that the middle of the field is the one place you can sometimes attack the Seahawks with some success), you could certainly go here in tourneys as long as you’re fine with the risk.
143Last week, I was proud of myself for sticking with Tyler Lockett in my main lineup. This was one of those “being willing to see things others are not seeing” situations – and it backfired horribly. You saw how open Doug Baldwin was last week, right? Well, I expected Lockett to be just as open…and I expected him to receive his regular workload. Coming into last week, his previous seven regular season games had yielded target totals of 7, 7, 7, 7, 4, 8, 4 (with him being injured for a chunk of one of those four-target games). Then, he came out last week and got zero targets. Ouch. Anyhow, the Jets are allowing the most yards-per-attempt in the NFL, and Lockett is one of the league’s premier big-play specialists; one of the reasons the Jets are allowing such a high YPA mark is because Revis Resort keeps gifting long plays – and that is who Lockett should see plenty of this week. No one is ever on Lockett anyway, but given his across-the-board zero last weekend, ownership will be utterly nonexistent, and he should bounce back to his regular range of at least five or six targets.
144If there is any concern for Lockett’s looks, it is the reemergence of Jimmy Graham. Early last week, someone asked me on Twitter if I thought Graham was a good play against the 49ers. I said something to the effect of, “I could see it, but it seems like an unnecessarily high risk given all the other tight end value.” By Saturday of last week, I started really coming around on the idea of rostering Graham, but since I had taken a firm stance early in the week, I decided to stay away. Again: ouch. Anyhow, Graham had nine targets last week. The Jets are middle of the pack in defending the tight end, and if Graham gets that kind of usage again, he’ll be a steal once more.
145Finally, we have Doug Baldwin. Baldwin actually seems to draw the toughest matchup this week, against Buster Skrine in the slot, as Skrine has played well to start the year – but given the legitimate WR1 Baldwin has become, given his usage in this offense (27 targets so far), and given that Skrine has a long history of mediocrity, I would be fine going to Baldwin this week as well. Basically, the entire Seahawks pass game is in play this week.
146All of this, of course, assumes Russell Wilson is starting – but that is the current expectation. And while “Russ without mobility” means fewer opportunities for “broken plays” to turn into “massive plays,” a hobbled Russ also means fewer QB runs and more passes. I’ll take that tradeoff.
147My final “ouch” from last week’s Seahawks game came from not rostering Christine Michael, after talking him up on Twitter, in the NFL Edge, and in my main-site article. Ouch. The matchup this week against a Jets team that finished first in run defense DVOA last year and currently ranks second in 2016 could not be much worse than it is (the Jets are also allowing only 3.3 yards per carry – the third-best mark in football), but I guess Michael at least still deserves some consideration, given his talent, his pass game chops, and his standing as the main back on this team.
148Raiders at Ravens
149
150I don’t want to say “We all knew this before anyone else did,” but…
151Okay. We all knew this before anyone else did.
152Yes, the Raiders still rank 28th in both pass and run defense DVOA. But you know who is currently Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked corner? David Amerson. Sean Smith also played much better last week, after a pair of atrocious outings. I know that game was against MPM (Mistake-Prone Mariota) and the Titans, but Amerson was playing well even before that, and as we saw last year (when everyone was picking on Sean Smith after Week 1, only for him to turn in one of the best seasons across the NFL the rest of the way), it can take only one performance for Smith to get rolling.
153The big issue for Oakland so far, actually, has been the incredible disappearing act their pass rush has pulled. Through three games, the Raiders have three sacks – tied with Cleveland, Atlanta, and Kansas City, of all teams (I guess the absence of Justin Houston really does hurt, huh?) for the second-worst mark in football. No sacks means more pressure put on the back end of the defense, which means more big plays.
154Eventually, I still believe we will see more from this Raiders defense than we have seen to start the season. I believe they will start to get to the quarterback, and their secondary will benefit as a result. But this may not be the week that happens. In fact, this will almost certainly not be the week that happens. Last season, in spite of attempting more passes than any other team in the NFL (and in spite of starting multiple inexperienced quarterbacks – which tends to lead to sacks), the Ravens took the third-fewest sacks in the NFL. Most pass attempts + third-fewest sacks = incredibly impressive.
155As much as people seem terrified of rostering him, this game seems to set up well for Steve Smith Sr. While great cornerback play is not a positive for any receivers, we can say that it is receivers like Smith – guys who never quit on plays, and who can lean on experience and technique – who are likeliest to break free from tight coverage if given enough time. Sr. is still not playing a ton of snaps, which may seem like a drawback, but he’s still getting the looks (26 targets so far this season), which is really all that matters. I also would not mind a shot on Mike Wallace in tourneys here, as we know the Ravens are likely to pass plenty (again: they had the eighth-most pass attempts in NFL history last year, and Marc Trestman is the man calling the plays), and we know Flacco will have time to throw for chunks of this game. Also, of course, Dennis Pitta is in play with the bromance continuing (20 targets over the last two games), and with Oakland ranking 23rd in DVOA against the tight end.
156Neither backfield is too terribly appealing. The Ravens split the workload between Justin Forsett and Terrance West, with neither guy doing a whole lot. And not only do the Raiders now have a fantasy-crushing three-man rotation, but they will also be taking on the stout run defense of the Ravens (third in run defense DVOA).
157Last week, I hypothesized that maybe the Ravens’ pass defense is not as bad as is publicly believed. Three weeks into the season, their DVOA is telling the same story, with the Ravens currently ranked eighth. The Ravens have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt, and they have issued nine sacks and picked up five interceptions while allowing only four passing touchdowns. Yes, they faced the Bills and the Browns (and even got torched early by the Browns before tightening up – which can possibly even be attributed to the injury sustained by Josh McCown), but they also looked solid against the Jaguars.
158With that said: this is also not something I am too terribly concerned about this week – for pretty much the same reasons I am not too concerned with the potential of the Raiders significantly slowing down the Ravens: Carr is unlikely to deal with a bunch of pressure (the Raiders’ offensive line is stellar, and Carr has taken only two sacks all year), and the offensive action here will be funneled toward the pass. We should see Carr attempt somewhere in the range of 38 passes again this week (he has marks on the season of 38, 45, and 35), and both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper should be able to work open against Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright (who is a legitimately bad corner). With this “revamped pass defense” being attributable largely to the pass rush, and with the pass rush likely to be slowed down quite a bit in this spot, I like Amari and Crabtree this week.
159The one counterpoint I will bring up is that Eric Weddle seems to have really transformed this secondary. (On a side note: with the nasty split the Chargers had with Weddle, and then the horrible way they handled the Bosa situation, you have to wonder how other NFL players – and future free agents – view the Chargers organization…) Weddle cannot give more talent to the guys around him, but he can help them “up their game,” and he seems to be doing that. With Weddle in action, I’m not too interested in Clive Walford – and I also see the chances of “chunk gains” from Amari and Crabtree being lowered. I like each guy (with Crabtree providing more safety and Amari providing more upside), but neither guy stands out as a “must play” to me in this spot.
160Browns at Redskins
161
162At the risk of having things thrown at me: the Browns’ defense may not be as bad as we all thought they would be. I mean…we can all agree that Hue Jackson is a good coach, right? We can certainly agree that Jackson is a better coach than Mike Pettine (Pettine, if you recall, was, like, the Browns’ eighth or ninth option the year they hired him; Jackson was the top option for a number of teams). We can probably all agree that they are going to develop over the next couple years into a better team than they have been in ages. And right now, the Browns grade out as a pretty average defense – both in terms of surface stats and advanced stats. “Average” is not good, but it’s also not something you go out of your way to target.
163With that caveat cleared out of the way: we do know the Redskins are likely to attack through the air – because that’s what they do. Washington currently ranks 29th in rushing attempts – and while they ranked higher last year (14th), they finished last season with the third-worst yards per carry in the NFL. We should see 35 or more pass attempts once again in this one from Cousins. While I am not quite on the #CousinsAsChalk bandwagon, I do feel game flow is unlikely to reach a point this week where Cousins will just be handing the ball off for a huge chunk of the game. Furthermore, the Browns are struggling to pressure the quarterback (three sacks on the season and only 13 hurries – the latter of which ranks better than only six other teams, and the former of which ranks better than only one other team), which will help Cousins in finding Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder underneath, and will help him in finding DeSean Jackson deep. I guess the main reason I like this matchup has more to do with the fact that I think Cousins is a good quarterback (even if he has looked bad so far this year – and that’s not an exaggeration; he has looked bad), and this is an “average” matchup. Liking Cousins this week because he’s a “good quarterback in an average matchup” is different from liking Cousins because he’s an “average quarterback, and this is a great matchup” – which is probably how most will paint this – but the end result is the same: Cousins should be a strong option this weekend.
164On the other side, you could target Isaiah Crowell, who will go overlooked, and who can probably be comfortably relied on for 15 carries against a bad run defense (though you do need a touchdown from Crowell in order for him to pay off, as he’s unlikely to do much through the air – and honestly, the Browns may have a new goal line back at the moment…), and of course, you should lock Terrelle Pryor onto your roster immediately on DraftKings, where he is criminally underpriced, and you should give him a long look on FanDuel even at his elevated price. Coming into last weekend, Pryor already had target counts of seven and ten through the first two weeks – but with Corey Coleman taking on some of the work closer to the line of scrimmage, Pryor was receiving more low-percentage targets. Last week, however, Pryor received 14 targets (both of the short and deep variety), hauling in eight for 144 yards, while tacking on 21 rushing yards (and a rushing touchdown) on four attempts, and completing three passes for another 35 yards. Pryor is the number-one receiver, he’s the goal line back, and he’s going to add a point or two through the air. He legitimately has the upside to be the highest-scoring player on the weekend.
165Broncos at Buccaneers
166
167When crazy things happen in DFS, I like to ask myself, “What did I miss? Were there any signs we should have seen? Was there any viable reason to have been on that particular play?”
168The two places that led to this question in Week 3 were Terrelle Pryor and the Broncos’ passing game.
169On the first item: Uh, yeah. I should have been on Pryor. You should have been on Pryor. Evan Silva and Adam Levitan and Chris Raybon and Jeff Collins and whoever else I trust and you trust should have been on Pryor. Maybe not in cash, but at least in tourneys – it just made sense, and we all missed it (at least, I think all of us missed it; if one of them didn’t miss it, then I sure missed them “not missing it”!). Pryor was a lot like…well, like the Vikings’ defense in Week 1 against the Titans. In retrospect, it made a lot of sense, but in the week leading up to that slate, it was something a lot of us just plain overlooked.
170As for the Broncos’ pass-game explosion? No. There was no way to see that coming. Sure, it made sense that the Bengals might stack the box to “force Siemian to beat them.” It made sense that there was a chance the Broncos could succeed if this happened, as we have talked in this article already this year about how the Bengals succeed at being excellent against the pass more through scheme than through talent; if they sold out to stop the run, this could compromise their scheme on the back end. But that would have been a lot of guessing – and on top of that, we would have had to guess how good Siemian could actually be. No thanks.
171But even in answering that question – of whether or not there were things that could have led to us rostering the Broncos’ pass game and feeling good about it in retrospect even if it had failed to work out – we are still left with a question of whether or not the Broncos are a viable target through the air this week.
172In defense of the Broncos attacking through the air: The Bucs rank 11th in run defense DVOA, but they rank 25th in pass defense DVOA; the Bucs are allowing 3.5 yards per carry, one year after holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry (the second-best mark in the league in 2015 – behind only the Broncos). Even with the switch from Leslie Frazier to Mike Smith as defensive coordinator, the Bucs are getting it done against the run. This should, theoretically, funnel action toward the pass.
173As a counterargument: Siemian actually only threw two more passes in Week 3 than he threw in Week 2. He also did not take many deep shots – he just ended up being more successful on the shots he did take.
174Ultimately, I expect the Broncos to again allow Siemian to throw 33 to 35 passes. I expect these passes to be mostly of the short variety, with a couple deep shots sprinkled in. And I expect Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to each have an “okay” floor, with a solid ceiling (Demaryius has had six or seven targets in each game this season; Sanders had eight targets each of the first two games before receiving 13 in Week 3). I probably will not go out of my way to target either guy, as they will probably need a hugely efficient game in order to put up a week-winning week – but I also don’t mind a tourney flier, as each guy certainly has difference-making talent.
175C.J. Anderson is in the same boat as Lamar Miller, David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell (more on the latter two in a bit), in that he’ll get his carries (surely around 20), he’ll get his targets (he has marks of four, five, and five through the first three games), and he’ll have a solid shot at touchdowns; but the matchup is certainly difficult, and it will be tough for him to post a truly elite weekend. I would not at all mind rostering him in tourneys, as the usage could lead to a solid yardage floor that could become a high ceiling with a couple short-yardage touchdowns, but I won’t be going out of my way to make sure he’s on my roster.
176On the Buccaneers’ side: I’ll pass.
177I definitely get the argument. The entire offense right now is Mike Evans, Charles Sims, and – apparently – Cameron Brate (ten targets last weekend). On volume alone, the first two guys (and possibly even the third) are worth considering. But against this Broncos defense, I feel it will be tremendously difficult for anyone to post a week-winning week, and I would much prefer looking for the same upside these guys have in higher-floor spots. If my thoughts change at all here, I will drop by later in the week to post an update (and I will post at the top of the article to let you know you can find the update down here!). If you check out the article on Saturday afternoon or evening and do not see a note at the top (which is likeliest to be the case!), it means I still don’t see any significant case to be made for jumping on board with the Bucs’ offense in any spot.
178Rams at Cardinals
179
180We’ve been a bit spoiled over the last ten years or so. Brett Favre continued to play at a high level deep into his 30s. Peyton Manning trailed off at the end, of course, but he set the record for touchdown passes in a season deep into his 30s. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are each in the same age range – creeping up on 40 years old – and each guy is playing at a high level. So when Carson Palmer is struggling, we all wonder, “What on Earth is wrong with the guy!” Perhaps it is simply that the man is 36 years old. Just a thought.
181Another thought, of course, is that health/age is not the issue. Perhaps he has just had some bad games, dating back to the point at which he injured his finger last year, and continuing into this season with his finger obviously no longer an issue. So far this season, he looks more inaccurate than he did last year, some of his balls lack the zip we are used to seeing from him, and some of his deeper passes downright flutter down the field. But it could be nothing. It could just be a few rough performances. That’s not snark or sarcasm – I’m being completely serious. I don’t have the answers, but it’s definitely worth thinking about if you are considering Carson Palmer this weekend.
182If you believe Palmer is healthy, here are his five fantasy performances against the Rams, as a member of the Cardinals:
18325.24 DK, 22.24 FD (bonus for 300 yards on DK)
18419.98 DK, 16.98 FD (bonus for 300 yards on DK)
1858.74
18614.66
18722.08 DK, 18.08 FD (bonus for 300 yards on DK; different “fumble lost” scoring)
188Of course, those games took place when Janoris Jenkins was still with the Rams. But still, I’ve seen a handful of people already this week talking about Palmer being a sneaky-strong play at home against the “funnel defense” of the Rams. That may very well end up being the case. But questions about Palmer’s health and/or current ability, combined with this being a division matchup, combined with this being a tough matchup, definitely makes me a bit more tepid on this spot that others will perhaps be. It’s a sneaky spot, but there are probably sneaky spots elsewhere that boast a higher floor/ceiling combo.
189If you want to look elsewhere on the Cardinals’ offense: Larry Fitzgerald is one of only four receivers in the NFL with double-digit targets in each game. While he is priced a bit higher than I would like (his role in this offense, after all, is similar to the role Cole Beasley has in Dallas – though with more talent and a few more targets), he does provide a really nice floor in a raw-points sense. Also, David Johnson currently ranks as PFF’s number one running back – which is absolutely no surprise if you have watched all of DJ’s snaps this year. Of all the guys on the list this week labeled “talented running backs with a tough matchup,” DJ is the one I feel has the best chance of posting a big game. He probably will not get you the sort of game-changing week you would optimally like to find when paying up for a talented running back in a tough matchup – which means I probably will not end up going here myself (even though that will leave me sad all day Sunday over the fact that I do not have DJ on my roster) – but I’ll definitely give him a hard look all week, as I feel this guy is always in play right now (in a good matchup, he’s still good enough to consider rostering at high ownership; in a bad matchup, he’s still worth considering rostering because his upside is so high and his ownership will be lower).
190On the Rams’ side: No thanks.
191This is a great spot to roster the Cardinals’ defense – with the public likely down on them after their embarrassing loss last week in Buffalo, and with some people perhaps even on the Rams after they finally scored some offensive touchdowns last weekend. Unless the Rams were playing the worst run defense in football (in which case, I might consider Todd Gurley), there would not be anyone on this team I would look to roster. That’s what happens when you have the fewest yards and the fourth-fewest points in the NFL, and are starting Case Keenum at quarterback, and are stuck calling Tavon Austin your number one wide receiver, and…well, you get the picture. Let’s move on.
192Cowboys at 49ers
193
194Here we have a pair of antithetical teams. The Cowboys would like to slow things down. The 49ers would like to speed things up. Before we get too deep into the narrative about this being “a great spot for the Cowboys,” though, let’s look at two key items.
1951) Is the 49ers’ defense as bad as the public thinks? Football Outsiders doesn’t seem to think so; they have the 49ers ranked ninth in pass defense DVOA and 13th in run defense DVOA. In surface stats: the 49ers rank 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 12th in opponent quarterback rating; they rank 17th in yards allowed per carry. Pro Football Focus has a similar take. The 49ers’ defense has some rough spots on it, but they have Navorro Bowman playing at an elite level once more after a down year last year; they have Eric Reid ranked as the number six free safety in the NFL, Antoine Bethea ranked as the number ten strong safety, and Jimmie Ward ranked as the number nine corner. Arik Armstead and Deforest Buckner are rated well on the interior.
1962) In 2015, the 49ers’ defense was much better at home than it was on the road. Like…much, much better. They allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the road, compared to 3.4 at home (remember: the Bucs ranked second in the NFL last year…allowing 3.4 yards per carry). The 49ers allowed 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road compared to 6.6 at home; even more glaring, they notched a 15 to four TD-to-INT ratio on the road, while notching a six to five ratio at home. They recorded nine sacks on the road last year and 20 at home. Most incredibly of all, the 49ers allowed 31.5 points per game on the road last year, while allowing only 16.9 points per game at home. While this is a different coaching staff from last year, it’s the same players. And those numbers are glaring.
197Obviously, an apology is appropriate here – if not downright required. I have contributed to the “49ers are unequivocally awful” conversation. Early on this year, I did not do what I said at the top of the article we should all be doing: I did not second-guess and challenge everything. I simply listened to the noise on this one – and while the 49ers’ offense is as talent-deficient as the public thinks, their defense is a lot better than the public thinks.
198I just had a thought. A sad thought. A non-DFS thought. In the 1980s and early 1990s, no 49ers fans could ever have imagined they would go through a period like this one. This is one of the NFL’s storied franchises – one of the consistent winners. The reason this is particularly sad to me? Someday, Bill Belichick will retire. I’ll have kids that I am trying to turn into Patriots fans, and they’ll probably be wondering why I am trying to make them a fan of a team that is so darn awful. (Who knows – by that point, maybe the Patriots will even have Chip Kelly as their head coach. Oh, Lord save us all…)
199Now that we cleared all that out of the way: I do like the idea of using Dak Prescott these days. People are not moving toward him (which is one of the great examples we have had of recency bias; Week 1, Dak was the unquestioned chalk – and after he played a good game that week but failed to put up a big fantasy game, hardly anyone has gone back to him, in spite of the fact that he has looked great!). Of course, the big thing with Dak – the reason I have not yet gone to him myself (granted: I build only one main lineup each week! – though I am hopeful that I will have time this week to throw a few variations of that core lineup into a handful of lower-dollar tourneys; we’ll see; but anyhow, as I was saying: the reason I have not yet gone to Dak myself…), is the fact that the Cowboys would prefer to not throw if they can help it. After uncorking 45 throws in Week 1, Dak has dropped to 30 and 24 passes his last two weeks. To put that in perspective: only four teams last year averaged 30 or fewer pass attempts per game – so we see, quite clearly, that the Cowboys are fine hanging out on the bottom rung of pass attempts as long as they can. With Dak’s price and low ownership and obvious point-per-dollar upside, I don’t mind him this week; but with the Cowboys’ desire to not throw the ball, and the 49ers’ home/road splits, I am likely to stay away myself.
200Dez Bryant may or may not play this week, but either way, I’m not prepared to pay up for a wide receiver in a surprisingly tough matchup on a team that would prefer to not pass the ball. If I look anywhere here, it will be to Cole Beasley, as he has target counts of 12, six, and seven to start the season; I probably won’t roster him, as I optimally want guys who have a clear path to 20 or more points, but Beasley is safe and solid.
201The big question, of course, is Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke looked a lot better on the field last week than he did in Weeks 1 and 2. The matchup is not great, but matchup matters a bit less with this offensive line (which also looked a lot better last week than it did the first two weeks). I don’t mind Zeke – but I do want to say that if I am paying up at running back, I generally prefer a guy who can mix in pass game involvement, and Zeke does not really fit the bill.
202On the other side: Blaine Gabbert somehow has only a 55% completion rate on the season (second worst in the NFL) in spite of averaging only 5.5 yards per pass attempt (worst in the NFL). Typically, shorter passes lead to a higher completion percentage, but Gabbert and the 49ers’ receivers are just plain bad. I mean, it’s certainly good that the 49ers ran Jim Harbaugh out of town so that they could keep Trent Baalke as their general manager, because he is clearly doing a bang-up job.
203The one spot that is interesting for the 49ers is Carlos Hyde. The guy is going to get a couple targets and around 20 carries. The Cowboys have a solid run defense (12th in run defense DVOA to start the year – in spite of allowing 4.8 yards per carry). In what Vegas projects as a close game, Hyde could surprise with a nice showing; he’s not a safe play, but in a point-per-dollar sense, he has a solid floor, and he definitely has the 20-point upside we are looking for; he’s a guy worth digging into and considering.
204Before I move on from this game, I literally just found out that Dez Bryant has a fracture in his knee that he thinks he’s going to play through (I highly doubt he will), and I just (a bit late…) saw the news that Jimmie Ward is out for the 49ers. So…yeah. Brice Butler actually becomes an interesting play in this spot now (tourneys only), and Cole Beasley can maybe even be expected to see a couple extra looks. (If you are wondering why no mention of Jason Witten: even if his targets spike back up, his upside is pretty low given the sorts of targets he receives, and the lack of yards-after-catch ability he has; there are other tight ends in the low price range I like a bit more.)
205Saints at Chargers
206
207Naturally, this is the highest Over/Under of the main slate. Before we dive into this game, however, I will recycle the same intro I used from the “Saints at Giants” game in Week 2:
208BEGIN RECYCLED CONTENT:
209Drew Brees’ best game on the road last year? It came out to 23.48 DraftKings points, and 20.48 FanDuel points. In seven road starts, Brees cracked the 20-point mark three times on DK and only once on FD…and he finished under 15 points another three times.
210That’s one side of the story.
211The other side of the story is that Brees still topped 300 yards in four of his seven road starts, and he topped 30 completions three times. His number of pass attempts on the road last year looked like this:
21248
21343
21444
21528
21644
21741
21842
219So why the low fantasy production on the road? The main reason was simply a nine to six TD to INT ratio (compared to 23 to five at home!).
220While Brees’ home and road stats were practically identical to one another in 2014, the “Brees is better at home” narrative exists for a reason. In 2013, his TD/INT ratio was 27 to three at home, and 12 to nine on the road. In 2012, it was 26 to eight at home, and 17 to 11 on the road. And so on. But even with the lowered touchdown production on the road (and the higher interception rate), Brees can still get his pass catchers involved. This is an important distinction, as it can be easy to “fade Brees on the road,” and to forget that this does not mean you have to fade his receivers.
221/END RECYCLED CONTENT
222I am, actually, mostly fine fading the Saints’ pass game. Not that I want to recommend you do the same, in case I am totally wrong on this. But I will give you the numbers I am seeing:
223For starters, the addition of Casey Hayward in the slot for the Chargers has been huge. Currently, he ranks as PFF’s number two cornerback in the NFL to begin the year. Jason Verrett was the number one corner in football last year according to PFF, and while he has had a slow start to the season, he’s going to bounce back; he did not suddenly go from being one of the best corners in the NFL his first two years in the league to now being one of the worst. Finally, the Chargers have Brandon Flowers, who looks a lot better this year than he did last year.
224The Chargers also have six sacks (tied with a bunch of other teams for 12th in the NFL), and they have the second-most hurries in the NFL with 22. They should be able to get pressure on Brees and make this a more difficult day than he would like.
225If I do go to the Saints’ pass game, there are three places I could look. Firstly and secondly, I could look to Brandin Cooks or Michael Thomas. Each guy will have a tough matchup on the outside (I imagine Verrett will not shadow this week, in which case each guy would see an equal share of him – but even Flowers should hold up pretty well against these guys), but if Snead is out again, the usage will be there for these guys, and if Snead plays, he’ll have a really tough assignment in the slot against Hayward. Thirdly, I would consider Coby Fleener. Watching Fleener is absolutely infuriating. The guy makes no effort to go and get the ball when passes come his way. He has no aggressiveness or tenacity; he has no “want to.” But Brees keeps looking to him, and the Chargers rank 24th in DVOA against the tight end (after ranking 31st a year ago), so volume alone could make him a valuable play. It will feel dirty to throw him onto a roster, but against a team that filters targets to the middle of the field, it could end up making a whole lot of sense.
226While Mark Ingram has not been an integral part of the offense to start the year, the Saints did make a more conscientious effort last week to get the ball in his hands – feeding him 15 carries and six targets. Ingram is still priced at a place that somewhat reflects the “RB1” perception the public holds of him after his healthy weeks last year, so it’s a tough place for me to actually pull the trigger (essentially: he could put up a big game here, against a run defense that is continuing to struggle, but fundamentally – given usage and role – he is still overpriced), but I also cannot argue against using any running back against the Chargers, and that includes Ingram.
227On the Chargers’ side of the ball, there is a lot to like, but not a ton to talk about or dig into, as most of this is pretty darn obvious.
228Philip Rivers – it goes without saying – is in a great spot. He may even go under-owned this week after he disappointed some of us last weekend.
229Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, and Hunter Henry (assuming Antonio Gates misses again) should all split targets pretty evenly. All three guys have touchdown upside; Tyrell will see more downfield targets, which gives him a better shot at a big day, but Benjamin has the speed to break an underneath target for a long touchdown, and it it is not out of the realm of possibilities that he could see a couple deep targets himself, and Henry should be a lock for a red zone target or two if the Chargers get off some plays close to the goal line.
230Finally, there is Melvin Gordon, whom people seem to be talking up as the chalk this week. Gordon is probably going to lose a bit more work this week to Dexter McCluster than he did last week, but he still should be good for 15 to 20 carries and a few targets. Against this Saints defense (31st in run defense DVOA, and 30th in yards allowed per carry), that may be all you need.
231I like this spot all the way around for the Chargers’ offense – and even with this game sure to draw plenty of ownership attention, I’ll probably be looking for a way to fit one or two pieces from this game onto my roster.
232Chiefs at Steelers
233
234So. Okay. Here’s the interesting thing:
235The Steelers finished third in the NFL last year in sacks, with 48. So far this year, they have one sack (which, of course, puts them dead last).
236The Chiefs finished fourth in the NFL last year in sacks, with 47. So far this year, they have three sacks (which – as mentioned earlier – is tied with three other teams as second-worst to start the year). The Steelers do have 15 quarterback hurries, which puts them middle of the pack; the Chiefs, meanwhile, have only nine quarterback hurries – which is better than only two other teams.
237Basically, it doesn’t matter how good your secondary is (and neither secondary is spectacular), you are going to have a tough time holding down an opponent if you cannot generate a pass rush.
238Because the Chiefs under Andy Reid are not opponent-specific in the way they approach a game (and will therefore run their balanced, run-leaning, safe-passing offense unless game flow pulls them out of this), the Steelers are the team that will dictate how this game is played. If the Steelers can put up points, this can force the Chiefs to open things up in the passing game and get more aggressive; if the Steelers cannot put up points, this will allow the Chiefs to play things safe and slow all throughout the game.
239Right now, the Chiefs are allowing 4.2 yards per carry – which is middle of the pack in the NFL. Last year, the Chiefs finished the season allowing 4.1 yards per carry. The Chiefs currently rank 16th in run defense DVOA, after ranking 11th last year. They also rank first in pass defense DVOA at the moment (after ranking fifth last year). In theory, this should skew the Steelers toward the run, though it is worth noting that Ben Roethlisberger has gone under 37 pass attempts in only one of his last six home games (and in that game – a blowout 30-9 win over the Browns – he still threw 33 times). His previous home game below 37 attempts was also a blowout (43-18). Interestingly, the last time he went below 37 attempts in a home game in a non-blowout was in December of 2014…against the Chiefs, when Big Ben threw the ball only 25 times in a 20-12 win (that year, the Chiefs ranked 13th in pass defense DVOA, but 26th against the run).
240In this spot, I fully expect a 35+ attempt game from Big Ben, but I also expect Le’Veon Bell to be used heavily – with the Steelers perfectly willing to ride him on the ground this week to victory.
241The great thing, of course, about the Steelers is that we know where the ball is going. Antonio Brown leads the NFL in targets this year, after finishing last season as one of only two receivers (alongside Julio Jones) to top 200 targets (and that was with Ben missing a few games and Antonio’s targets dropping as a result). And as we saw with DeAngelo Williams, the Steelers are willing to ride their lead back into the ground. Last year, in his first game back from suspension (funny that we have a precedent for this, no?), Bell played 95% of the snaps. He also touched the ball 26 times. Don’t worry about usage here. It’s a better matchup than most realize, and Bell will dominate carries and pass game work out of the backfield. In a raw-points sense, he is obviously one of the top projected players on the weekend – and while you never “have to” pay up at running back, Bell definitely has the upside to make you regret fading him.
242Of course, the same could be said for Brown. I doubt Brown will put up the sort of game that will make you “regret fading him” at his massive price tag, but I also doubt he’ll disappoint you. He’s a strong play, as always.
243I do not think the Steelers will get out to a huge lead, and that means I do not think the Chiefs will have to get super aggressive. Whenever this is the case, my excitement across this entire offense is lowered a bit, as Reid really does not have any interest in opening up the playbook unless he is absolutely forced to. The Steelers currently rank 17th in run defense DVOA and 30th in pass defense DVOA. Jeremy Maclin is definitely in play, as is Travis Kelce over the middle. But again: strictly based off of offensive philosophy, these guys are a bit less appealing to me than they would be in a shootout.
244The last guy to look at here is old friend Spencer Ware. Ware seems to have finally wrestled “lead back” duties away from Charcandrick West, and it appears unlikely that Jamaal Charles plays this weekend. Ware is a moderate floor, moderate ceiling play against a run defense that is probably not as disappointing as it has looked early on – but on usage alone (he’s pretty much a lock for 15 carries and four or five targets – with upside for more), Ware is in play as a tourney option that is sure to go overlooked.
245Giants at Vikings
246
247Poor Odell Beckham. The man has not scored a touchdown for three consecutive games, which is the longest streak of his career. And now he goes on the road to take on the Vikings. Let’s just say this will be a tough spot for him to score as well. More importantly: at OBJ’s price on both FanDuel and DraftKings, you need more than just him ending his touchdown drought; you basically need about an 8-100-1 performance. This will be tough to do against a Vikings D that currently ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA.
248Honestly, I have no idea how this game even has an Over/Under of 43 points. That’s low, sure – but it seems it should be even a couple points lower. The Vikings are tied with the Texans for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL so far this season, with three. The Giants are not doing a whole lot better; at six offensive touchdowns on the year, they rank 19th in the NFL – tied with the Jaguars and the Jets. If Rashad Jennings comes back for the Giants this week, I’m not certain how much of a bonus that is for them, as he looks slow and hesitant on the field this year. And while Orleans Darkwa is probably a better running back than Jennings, I’m not all that certain he is good, either. Sterling Shepard will have a tough matchup in the slot against Captain Munnerlyn. Eli Manning will have his hands full with the Vikings’ pass rush. There really is just not a ton to love on this side of the ball.
249And while the Vikings would obviously like to rely on the run, the Giants’ run defense ranks seventh in DVOA, and Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon have years of evidence piled up against them, at this point – saying they cannot be reliable fantasy pieces. You might grab a three-touchdown game from Asiata if you keep hunting for it all year, but you’ll lose a lot of money with duds along the way.
250The only “path of least resistance” visible in this game is the Giants’ pass defense, which looks susceptible with potential star rookie safety Darian Thompson set to miss this week’s games, and with fellow rookie cornerback Eli Apple and solid veteran Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie also injured and shaping up as late-week decisions. Of course, for all the hype about “the Vikings pass game looking better,” only three teams in the NFL have thrown fewer passes than the Vikings this year. Because Kyle Rudolph (26 targets so far this year) and Stefon Diggs (27 targets) are the clear and inarguable focal points of this passing offense, either guy can be considered. We all know about the Giants’ struggles covering the tight end. And Diggs should be able to do work in the spotlight (though there is a chance the Giants shadow him with Janoris Jenkins if the other pieces in their secondary are set to miss). If you are playing a Thursday-start slate or a Sunday-Monday slate, keep either of those guys in mind. Otherwise, I would be completely happy to avoid this game altogether.
251Regardless of where you end up, remember: Open your mind. Challenge your thinking. Be willing to look at things in a different way than others are looking at them, and see where it takes you.
252I’ll see where it takes me as well – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards when it’s all said and done.