· 8 years ago · May 06, 2018, 11:08 PM
1Chapter 1 Introduction
2Financial markets are one type of structure through which funds flow
3Financial markets can be distinguished along two divisions
4 Primary vs secondary markets
5Primary markets – markets in which users of funds (corporations and governments) raise funds by issuing financial instruments (stocks and bonds)
6Secondary markets – markets where existing financial instruments are traded among investors (eg exchange traded NYSE and over-the-counter: NASDAQ)
7 Money vs capital markets
8Money markets – markets that trade debt securities with maturities of 1 yr or less (eg CDs and US Treasury bills), with little or no risk of capital loss, but low return
9Capital Markets – markets that trade debt (bonds) and equity (stock) instruments with maturities of more than one year, has substantial risk of capital loss but higher promised return
10Foreign Exchange FX Markets
11 FX Markets – trading one currency for another (dollar to yen)
12 Spot FX – the immediate exchange of currencies at current exchange rates
13Forward FX – the exchange of currencies in the future on a specific date and at a pre-specified exchange date
14Derivative Security – a financial security whose payoff is linked/â€derived†from another security or commodity
15 Generally an agreement to exchange a standard quantity of assets at a set price on a specific date in the future
16 The main purpose of derivative markets is to transfer risk between market participants
17 Examples of derivative securities
18 Exchange listed derivatives
19 Many options
20 Future contracts
21 Over the counter derivatives
22 Forward contracts
23 Forward rate agreements
24 Swaps
25 Securitized loans
26Financial Institutions – institutions through which suppliers channel money to users of funds
27 Financial institutions are distinguished by
28 Whether they accept insured deposits (depository vs non depository FIs)
29 Whether they receive contractual payments from customers
30 Depository Institutions – commercial banks, savings associations, savings banks, credit unions
31 Non-depository institutions
32 Contractual
33 Insurance companies
34 Pension funds
35 Non-contractual
36 Securities firms
37 Investment banks
38 Mutual funds
39 FI benefit suppliers of funds
40 Reduce monitoring costs
41 Increase liquidity and lower price risk
42 Reduce transaction costs
43 Provide maturity intermediation
44 Provide denomination intermediation
45 FI benefit overall economy
46 Conduit through which Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy
47 Provides efficient credit allocation
48 Provide for intergenerational wealth transfers
49 Provide payment services
50 Risks Faced by Financial Institutions
51 Credit Off-balance-sheet
52 Foreign exchange Liquidity
53 Country or sovereign Technology
54 Interest rate Operational
55 Market Insolvency
56 Volcker Rule: insured institutions may not engage in proprietary trading
57 Regulation of financial institutions
58 FIs are heavily regulated to protect society at large from market failures
59Regulations imposes a burden on FIs; before the financial crisis, US regulatory changes were deregulatory in nature
60Regulators attempt to maximize social welfare while minimizing the burden imposed by regulation
61 Dodd-Frank Bill
62 Promote robust supervisions of FIs
63 Financial Service Oversight Council to identify and limit systematic risk
64 Broader authority for Federal Reserve to oversee non-bank FIs
65 Higher equity capital requirements
66 Registration of hedge funds and private equity funds
67 Comprehensive supervision of financial markets
68 New regulations for securitization and over the counter derivatives
69 Additional oversight by Fed of payment systems
70 Establishes a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency
71 New methods to resolve non-bank financial crises
72 More oversight of Fed bailout decisions
73Increase international capital standards and increased oversight of international operations of FIs
74Globalization of Financial Markets and Institutions
75 Pool of savings from foreign investors is increasing and investors look to diversify globally now more than ever before
76 Information on foreign markets and investments is becoming readily accessible and deregulation across the glove is allowing even greater access to foreign markets
77 International mutual funds allow diversified foreign investment with low transaction costs
78 Global capital flows are larger than ever
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108Chapter 7 Notes – Mortgage Markets
109Mortgages are loans to individuals or businesses to purchase homes, land, or other real property
110 Many mortgages are securitized
111Many mortgages pooled and sold and then mortgage payments are used to collateralize mortgage-backed securities
112 Mortgages differ from bonds and stocks
113 Mortgages are backed by a specific piece of real property
114 Primary mortgages have no set size or denomination
115 Comparatively little information exists on mortgage borrowers
116Four basic types of mortgages are issued by financial institutions
117 Home mortgages are used to purchase one-to-four family dwellings
118Multifamily dwellings mortgages are used to purchase apartment complexes, townhouses, and condominiums
119 Commercial mortgages are used to financial the purchase of real estate for business purposes
120 Farm mortgages are used to financial the purchase of farms
121Mortgage Characteristics
122 Collateral – lenders place liens against properties that prevent sale until loans are fully paid off
123Down payment – portion of the purchase price of the property a financial institution requires the borrower to pay up front
124Private mortgage insurance PMI – generally required when the loan-to-value ratio is more than 80%
125 Federally insured mortgages
126Repayment is guaranteed by either the Federal Housing Administration FHA or the Veteran Administration VA
127 Conventional mortgages – mortgages that are NOT federally insured
128Amortized mortgages have fixed principal and interest payments that fully pay off the mortgagee by its maturity date
129 Fully amortized mortgage maturities are usually either 15 or 30 years
130Balloon payment mortgages require fixed monthly payments for 3-5 whereupon full payment of the mortgage principal is due
131 Fixed-rate mortgages lock in the borrower’s interest rate
132 Required monthly payments are fixed over the life of the mortgages
133 Lenders assume interest rate risk
134Adjustable rate mortgages ARMs tie the borrowers interest rate to some market interest rate or interest rate index
135Required monthly payments can change over the life of the mortgage, although they may initially be fixed for a set time period (for example 5/1 ARMs and 3/1 ARMs are popular)
136 For example, cap on a 5/1 ARM may be stated as 5/2/5
137 Borrowers assume interest rate risk with an ARM
138 ARMs can increase default risk
139 Discount points – fees or payments made when a mortgage loan is issued
140 Each point costs the borrower 1 percent of the principal value
141The lender reduces the interest rate used to determine the payments on the mortgage In exchange for points paid
142 The longer the borrower takes to pay off the mortgage, the more likely to choose points and a lower mortgage rate - offering points mortgage lender decreases probability the mortgage borrower will prepay mortgage - paying mortgage off early reduces present value of monthly savings to mortgage borrower
143 Other fees
144Application fee, title search, title insurance, appraisal fee, loan origination fee, closing agent and review fees, VA/FHA loan guarantees, PMI
145 Mortgage Refinancing - when a borrower takes out a new mortgage and uses the proceeds to pay off an existing mortgage
146 Mortgages are most often refinanced when an existing mortgage has an interest rate than current rates
147 Borrowers must balancve the savings of a lower monthly paymenr with costs(fees) of refinancing
148 Rule of Thumb: New interest rate should be 2 percentage points less than refinanced mortgage rate
149Mortgage Amortization
150 Each fixed monthly payment consists partly of repayment of the principal and partly of the interest on the outstanding mortgage balance
151 An amortization schedule shows how the fixed monthly payments are split between principal and interest
152Mortgage Payments
153Other types of mortgages
154 Jumbo mortgage - mortgages for loan amounts that exceed the maximum 'conforming' limits allowed by the mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ($410,000 in 2014)
155 Subprime Mortgages - mortgages where borrowers do not qualify for a "prime" credit rating because of a low credit score arising from prior credit problems such as delinquencies and defaults
156 Or they may simply lack credit history or proper income
157 Alt-A mortgages - mortgages that are riskier than prime but not as risky as subprime
158 Incomplete documentation (liar loans)
159 Lower credit scores
160 Lower loan to value ratios
161 Interest rates usually between Prime and Subprime rates
162 Option ARMs (pick n pay mortages) - give homebuyers initial choice of payment options
163 Minumum payment 1% interest rate for 12 months, then variable rate, capitalization of unpaid interest, growing loan balance
164 Interest only payment: pay interest only at an adjustable rate for first 5-10 years of loan, payments will increase substantially when IO term expires
165 15/30 year fully amortizing payment
166 Second mortgages and home equity loans
167 Subordinated claims to senior mortgages
168 Reverse-annuity mortgages (RAMs)
169 Retirees or homeowners with a substantial amount of equity in their home can sell back the equity back to a bank over time
170 Various payment options available
171 Costs/servicing fees are higher
172Secondary Mortgage Markets
173 FIs remove mortgages from their balance sheets through 2 mechanisms
174 Pooling recently originated mortgages together and selling them in secondary market
175 By securitizing mortgages (issuing securities backed by newly originated mortgages)
176 Advantages of securitization
177 FIs can reduce the liquidity risk, interest rate risk, and credit risk of their loan portfolios
178 FIs generate income from origination and service fees
179 US govt established Federal National Mortgage Assocation FNMA Fannie Mae in 1930s to buy FHA and VA mortgages from thrifts so they could make more mortgage loans
180 US govt established Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FHLMC Freddie Mac in 1968 to facilitate financing of conventional mortgages
181 Government National Mortgage Assocation GNMA Ginnie Mae in 1960s
182 Encouraged continued expansion of housing market, mainly lower income housing
183 GNMA does not securitize mortgage, rather provides direct and indirect guarantees that allow private entities to create mortgage-backed securities
184 Securitization and Congressional goals to increasing funding for housing to lower income individuals led to weakning credit standards and increases in the number of high risk loans (subprime mortages)
185 Beginning in 06, problems in subprime mortgage market lead to 07/08 financial crisis
186 May 05 and Feb 07 subprime mortgage default rates increased from 5.37% to 10.09%
187 Subprime mortage holders 60+ days behind in payments hit 17.1% in Jun 07, 20% by August
188 Problems in subprime market spilled over to broader mortgage markets and helped fuel nationwide declines in home prices which put many homeowners underwater and lead to bankruptcies of many major financial institutions
189 Sept 7 08 Federal Housing Finance Agency FHFA put both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in government conservatorship
190Purpose of Government Involvement
191 Purpose in Residential mortgage markets
192 Provides affordable housing to as many potential homeowners as possible
193 Created a national market for mortage finance
194 Unforeseen costs?
195 Competition for bond market
196 Implicit & explicit government mortgage liability
197Ethics Issues
198 Bank of America BofA under investigation for mishandling low quality mortgages and potentially misrepresenting value of mortgage backed securities during crisis
199 JP Morgan already paid $13 billion in fines/civil settlements for similar issues
200Mortgage-backed securities
201 Pass-through securities - "pass-through" promised principal and interest payments to investors
202 Three agenties are directly involved in creation of pass-through securities
203 Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
204 Private mortgage pass-through issuers - create pass-throughs from nonconforming mortgages
205 Collateralized mortgage obligations CMOs are multiclass pass-throughs with multiple bond holder classes or tranches
206 Each bond holder class has a different guaranteed coupon
207 Mortgage prepayments retire only one tranche at a time, so all other tranches are sequentially prepayment protected
208 Mortgage-backed bonds MBBs
209 MBBs allow FIs to raise long-term low-cost funds without removing mortgages from their balance sheets
210 A group of mortgage assets is pledged as collateral against a MBB issue, but there is no direct link between cash flow of mortgages and cash flows on the MBB
211International Trends in Securitization
212 Europe is world's second largest and most developed securitization market
213 UK is biggest MBS issuer in European Market, followed by Germany
214 Advent of Euro has accentuated trend in securitization of Europe
215 Parts of Europe/Asian real estate markets were not as affected by mortgage crisis because they lacked substantial subprime lending
216 Banks in Britian, Ireland, Iceland, Spain, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Germany did have substantial mortgage related losses that resulted in bailouts and passage of economic stimulus programs
217 Securitization overseas is often structured differently, with originators retaining title to the mortgages even after securitization
218 Securitization has declined due to the crisis but will continue in the future
219Mortgage Sales
220 FIs have sold mortgages among themselves for over 100 years
221 Large part of correspondent banking involves small banks selling parts of large loanms to larger banks
222 Large banks often sell parts of their loans (participations) to smaller banks
223 Mortgage sales occur when an FI originates a mortgage and sells it to an outside buyer
224 Loan sale is made with recourse if the loan buyer can sell the loan back to the originator, should it go bad
225 Mortgage sellers: money center banks, smaller banks, foreign banks, investment banks
226 Mortgage sales allow FIs to manage credit risk, achieve better asset diversification, and improve their liquidity and interest rate positions
227 FIs are encouraged to sell loans for economic and regulatory reasons
228 Sold mortgages can still generate fee income for bank
229 Sold mortgages reduce the cost of reserve and capital requirements
230 Mortgage buyers: foreign and domestic banks, insurance companies, pension funds, closed-end bank mutual funds, nonfinancial corporations
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244Chapter 5 - Money Markets
245Money markets involve debt instruments with original maturities of one year or less
246Money market debt
247 issued by high quality (low default risk) economic units that require short-term funds
248 purchased by economic units that have excess short-term funds
249 little or no chance of principal loss
250 low rates of return
251Most money market instruments have active secondary markets to provide liquidity
252Money Market Yields
253 Money Market securities use special rate quoting conventions
254 Discounting yields (Id) Interest rate is quoted on an annual basis assuming 360 day year as a percent of redemption price or face value
255 Single payment yields (Isp) Interest rate is quoted on an annual basis assuming 360 day year as a percent of purchase price
256 Both may be converted to a bond equivalent yiield (Ibe) for comparison with bonds
257 Treasury bills and commercial paper rates are quoted as discount yields
258 Discount yield formula: (F1)
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260 Compare discount securities to bonds with bond equivalent yields (Ibe) (F2)
261 Convert bond equivalent yields into effective annual returns (EAR) (F3)
262 Negotiable (or jumbo) CDs and fed funds are money market securities that pay interest only at maturity. These use single-payment yields (Isp) (F1)
263 To convert a single-payment yield to a bond equivalent yield
264 Ibe = Isp (365/360)
265 To directly convert a single payment yield to an EAR (F3 but with Ibe replaced with above
266Money Market Instruments
267 Treasury bills (T-bills) - short term debt obligations issued by US government
268 virtually default risk free, highly liquid, and have little interest rate risk
269 Fed reserve buys and sells T-bills to implement monetary policy
270 Strong international demand for T-bills as safe haven investment
271 T-Bill auctions - 13 and 26 week T-bills are auctioned weekly, other maturities available
272 Bids submitted by government securities dealers, financial and nonfinancial corporations, and individuals
273 Bids can be competitive or noncompetitive
274 Competitive bids specify the bid price an desired quantity of T-bills
275 Noncompetitive bids get preferential allocation and agree to pay lowest price of the winning competitive bids
276 Secondary market for T-bills - largest secondary market for any US money market instrument
277 21 primary dealers "make" a market in t-bills by buying the majority sold at an auction and by creating an active secondary market
278 primary dealers trade for themselves and customers
279 T-bill purchases and sales are book-entry transactions conducted over Fedwide
280 T-bills are sold on a discount basis
281 T-bill prices can be calculated from quotes (WallStreetJournal) by arranging discount yield equation
282 Federal Funds (Fed funds) - target rate in the conduct of monetary policy
283 Fed fund transactions are short-term (overnight) unsecured loans
284 Banks with excess reserves lend fed funds, while banks with deficient reserves borrow fed funds
285 Multimillion dollar loans may be arranged in a matter of minutes
286 Fed funds are single-payment loans and thus single-payment yields
287 Repurchase Agreements (repos or RP) - sale of a security with an agreement to buy the security back at a set price in the future
288 Repos are short-term collateralized loans (typical collateral is US Treasury securities)
289 Similar to a fed fund loan, but collateralized
290 Funds may be transferred over FedWire system
291 If collateralized by risky assets, the repo may involve a "haircut"
292 Typical denominations on repos that are 1 week or less are $25 million
293 Longer term ones have $10 million denominations
294 Reverse repurchase agreement is purchase of security with an agreement to sell it back in the future
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296 Commercial Paper (CP)- unsecured short-term corporate debt issued to raise short-term funds (for working capital)
297 Generally sold in large denominations (100,000 to 1 million) with maturities 1-270 days
298 CP is usually sold to investors indirectly through brokers and dealers (78% of time)
299 CP is usually held by investors until maturity and has no active secondary market
300 Yields are quoted on a discount basis (like T-bills)
301 Asset-backed commercial paper - type of commercial paper backed by assets of issuing firm
302 Grew rapidly prior to financial crisis, much of it was backed by mortgage assets
303 Market collapsed during financial crisis
304 Negotiable certificates of deposit (CD) - bank-issued time deposit that specifies interest rate and maturity date
305 CDs are bearer instruments and thus are salable in the secondary market
306 Denominations range from $100,000 to $10 million; $1 million most common
307 Often purchased by money market mutual funds with pools of funds from individual investors
308 Banker acceptances (BA) - time draft payable to a seller of goods with payment guaranteed by a bank
309 Used in international trade transactions to finance trade in goods that have yet to be shipped from a foreign exporter (seller) to a domestic importer (buyer)
310 Foreign exporters prefer that banks act as payment guarantors before sending goods to importers
311 Banker's acceptances are bearer instruments and thus are salable in secondary markets
312Money market participants
313 US Treasury
314 Federal Reserve
315 Commercial Banks
316 Money market mutual funds
317 Brokers and dealers
318 Corporations
319 Other financial institutions
320 Dealers
321International Money Markets
322 US dollars held outside the US are tracked among multinational banks in the Eurodollar market
323 The rate offered for sale on Eurodollar Funds is the London Interbank Offered Rate LIBOR
324 Eurodollar Certificates of Deposit are US dollar-denominated CDs held in foreign banks
325 Eurocommercial paper (EuroCP) issued in Europe and can be local currencies or US dollars
326 The LIBOR is the rate on interbank loans between British banks
327 LIBOR is the base rate on trillions of dollars of derivativbes and is the base rate for many loans
328 Large banks manipulated LIBOR to profit on derivatives positions and/or to appear less risky during the crisis
329 Bank profits from misquoting LIBOR may have exceeded $75 billion
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377Chapter 10 – Derivative Securities Markets
378 Derivative – a contract between two parties whose value is based on some underlying asset price or market condition
379 In many derivatives, two parties agree to exchange a standard quantity of an asset at a predetermined price at a specific date in the future
380 Derivatives are leveraged instruments where participants put up a small amount of money and obtain the gain or loss on a much larger position
381 Derivatives are used for speculation and for hedging
382 Speculation – buying or selling a derivative contract in order to earn a leveraged rate of return with increased risk
383 Hedging – entering into a derivatives contract to reduce the risk associated with positions or commitments in their line of business
384 Derivatives Markets
385 Agricultural product features and options go back to ancient history (began US in 19th century)
386 Options on stocks began in the US in the late 19th century
387 Modern derivatives
388 The first wave were foreign currency futures introduced by the International Monetary Market IMM followed the Smithsonian Agreements of 1971 and 1973
389 The second wave were interest rate futures introduces by the Chicago Board of Trade CBT with the increase rate volatility in the late 1970s
390 The third wave occurred in the 1980s with the advent of stock index derivatives
391 The fourth wave occurred in 1990s with credit derivatives
392 Substantial corporate use to reduce risk
393Spot contract – an agreement to transact involving the immediate exchange of assets and funds
394Forward contract – nonstandardized agreement to buy or sell and asset in the future with the terms of the deal set when the contract is created
395 Not very marketable
396Forwards are:
397 Custom contracts; lack standard terms
398 Not trade, so participants must perform
399 Risky; have potential counterparty credit risk
400Futures contract – standardized, exchange-traded version of a future contract
401 Future contracts differ from forwards in that futures are:
402 Marketable
403 Have no default risk
404 Employ margin requirements and daily marking to market
405 Margin requirement is a performance bond posted by a buyer and a seller of a futures contract
406 Future contract trading occurs in trading “pits†using an open-outcry auction among exchange members
407 Floor brokers place trades for the public
408 Professional traders – trade for their own accounts
409 Position traders take a position in the futures market based on their expectations about the future direction of the prices of the underlying assets
410 Day traders take a position within a day and liquidate it before the day’s end
411 Scalpers take positions for very short positions of time (minutes), in attempt to profit from active trading
412 Price volatility and trading interest determines which contracts are offered
413 Profit pressures for derivatives exchange to merge
414 CME Group contains CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX
415 Electronic trading – is increasingly dominating “pit†trading Intercontinental Exchange only has electronic trading
416 Long position – purchase of futures contract
417 Short position – sale of futures contract
418 Clearinghouse is the unit that oversees trading on the exchange and guarantees all trades made by the exchange
419 Open interest is the total number of the future, put options, or call options outstanding at beginning of day
420 Initial margin is a deposit required on future trades to ensure that the terms of the contract will be met
421 The maintenance margin is the margin a futures trader must maintain once a futures position is taken
422 If losses occur such that margin accounts fall below the maintenance margin, the customer is required to deposit additional funds in the margin account to keep position open
423Options
424 Option - contract that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specified price within a specified period of time
425 Call option - option that gives purchaser the right but not the obligation, to buy the underlying security from the writer of the option at a specified exercise price on (or up to) a specified date
426 Put option - option that gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation to sell the underlying security to the writer of the option at a specified exercise price on (or up to) a specified date
427 Black-Scholes option pricing model (model most commonly used to price and value options) is a function of: (NOT REQUIRED TO CALCULATE IN THIS COURSE)
428 The spot price of the underlying asset
429 The exercise price on the option
430 the option's exercise date
431 the price volatility of the underlying asset
432 the risk-free rate of interest
433 The intrinsic value of an option is the difference between an option's excercise price and the underlying asset price
434 The intrinsic value of a call option = max{S-X, 0}
435 The intrinsic value of a put option = max{X-S, 0}
436 The underlying asset on a stock option is the stock of a publicly traded company
437 The underlying asset of a stock index option is the value of a major stock market index
438 The underlying asset of a futures option is a futures contract
439 Credit spread call options
440 The value of a credit spread call option increases as the default (risk) premium or yield spread on a specified benchmark bond of the borrower increases above some exercise spread
441 A digital default option pays a stated amount in the event of a loan default
442Option Markets
443 Chicago Board of Options Exchange CBOE opened in 1973 as first exchange devoted solely to the trading of stock option
444 Options on futures contracts began trading in 1982
445 An American Option can be exercised at any time before (and on) before the expiration date
446 A European option can be exercised only on the expiration date (S&P 500 Index Option)
447 The trading process for options is similar to that for futures contracts
448Swaps
449 A swap is an agreement between two parties to exchange asset or series of cash flows for a specific period of time at a specified interval
450 A plain vanilla interest rate swap is an exchange of fixed-interest payements for floating-interest payments by two counterparties
451 The swap buyer makes periodic fixed interest rate payment on a stated notional principal amount
452 The swap seller makes a periodic floating-rate interest payments on the same stated notional principal amount
453 No principal is exchanged
454 A currency swap is a periodic exchange for one currency for another between the parties
455 Usually associated with borrowing money
456 the exchanges can be at a fixed or variable rate of interest as negotiated in the contract, but the exchanges occur at a known currency exchange rate
457 Used to hedge exchange rate risk from mismatched currencies of assets and liabilities
458 Credit default swaps CDS allow financial institutions to hedge credit risk
459 A CDS buyer is buying insurance on a loan or bond
460 A CDS seller receives periodic payments from the CDS buyer
461 If the insured loan or bond defaults, the CDS seller pays the par value of the loan or bond to the CDS buyer
462 CDS played a major role in the financial crisis, AIG and others were major sellers of CDS that insured mortgage-backed securities, but lacked capital and could not pay when the mortgage securities failed
463Swap Markets
464 Swaps are not standardized contracts
465 Swap dealers (usually financial institutions) keep markets liquid by matching counterparties or by taking positions themselves
466 The International Swaps and Derivatives Association ISDA is an association among 56 countries that sets codes of standards for swap documentation
467Caps, Floors, and Collars
468 Financial institutions use options on interest rates to hedge interest rate risk
469 A cap is a call option on interest rates, often with multiple exercise dates
470 A floor is a put option on interest rates, often with multiple exercise dates
471 A collar is a position taken simultaneously in a cap and a floor (usually by buying a cap and selling a floor)
472Regulators of Derivatives
473 The primary regulator of futures markets is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC
474 The Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is the primary regulator of stock options and stock index option
475 The CFTC is the regulator of options on futures contracts
476 Until the Dodd-Frank Act neither the SEC nor the CFTC directly regulated OTC derivatives such as swaps
477 Under the new law OTC derivatives may be required to be traded on exchange and as such would come under the purview of the SEC and CFTC
478 Bank regulators will presumably more tightly regulate bank usage of derivatives
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520Chapter 8 Notes - Stock Markets
521Primary stock markets allow suppliers of funds to raise equity and capital (through new issues of stock)
522 Usually through investment banks
523 Investment banks act as distribution agents in best efforts underwriting
524 Investment banks act as principals in firm commitment underwriting
525 Gross proceeds - net proceeds = underwriter's spread
526 A syndicate is a group of investment banks working in concert to issue stock; the lead underwriter is the originating house
527 Initial public offering IPO is the first public issue of financial instruments of a firm
528 Seasoned offering is a sale of additional securities by a firm whose securities are already publicly traded
529 Preemptive rights - give existing stockholders the ability to maintain their proportional ownership
530 Shelf registration - allows firms to offer multiple issues of stock over a two-year period with only registration statement
531Secondary stock markets are the most closely watched and reported of all financial markets
532 Markets in which stocks, once issued, are traded among investors
533 US has several (NYSE, NASDAQ, BATS/DirectEdge)
534 NYSE Euronext - trading occurs on a specific place on the floor called trading post
535 Each stock has a special market maker called a specialist (designated market maker DMM) that maintains liquidity for the stock at all times
536 Three types of transactions happen at trading posts
537 Market order - order to transact at best price available when order reaches trading post
538 Limit order - order to transact at a specified price
539 Specialists transacting for their own account
540 Program trading - simultaneous buying and selling of a portfolio of at least 15 stocks valued at more than $1 million using computer programs to initiate the trades
541 Circuit breakers give investors time to make informed choices during periods of high market volatility
542 Exchange Traded Funds ETFs - index funds that are listed on exchange and can be traded intraday and shorted
543 Prices may not exactly match an index
544 NASDAQ was world's first electronic market - has no physical floor
545 Provides continuous trading for the most active stocks traded over the counter OTC
546 Primarily as a dealer market where many, often more than 20 dealers act as market makers
547 A small order execution system SOES provides automatic order execution for orders of less or equal to 1000 shares
548 NASD maintains electronic OTC bulletin board and pink sheets for small firms that are not part of the NASDAQ
549 Choice of market listings -
550 NYSE has extensive listing requirements (firm market value and trading volume)
551 NASDAQ - easier/cheaper requirements and can be met by smaller firms with less active trading
552 Electronic communication networks ECNs - normal trading 930am-4pm EST
553 Extended hours trading through alternative trading systems ATSs (other ECNS)
554 BATS Better Alternate Trading System - now its own exchange
555 Online trading via the internet is growing in popularity with both individuals and professionals
556 Flash Trading - May 6 2010 market crashed by 5% and recovered nearly instantly
557 definite cause not known, but suspected $4.1 billion S&P futures contract cause
558 Flash trading - traders allowed to see incoming buy or sell orders milliseconds earlier than general market traders
559 Flash traders then use computerized statistical analysis to generate high frequency trading strategies that are excuted
560 Pros: Flash trading creates more liquidty and possibility of price improvement
561 Cons: Disadvantage for regular traders and investors, high volume of trading by multiple flash trading can lead to another flash crash
562 As result of the flash crash, SEC imposed circuit breaker rules for individual stocks
563 Trading halted if price breaks price band calculated as
564 Price band = Reference Price +/- [Reference Price * Percentage Parameter]
565 Naked access - occurs when brokers and exchanges allow some traders to engage in high frequency trades anonymously using broker's access code
566 Dark Pools - trades that occur on alternative trading platforms (such as electronic communication networks) that do not report details of trade on order books (est 15% daily trades)
567 SEC considering requiring greater disclosure of dark pool trading and requiring high frequency traders to register as broker/dealers
568Stock Market indexes
569 Stock market index - composite value of a group of secondary market-traded stocks
570 Price-weighted index - DOW Jones Industrial Average DJIL composed is 30 companies is most widely known stock market index
571 Value-weighted indexes
572 NYSE Composite
573 S&P 500
574 NASDAQ composite
575 Wilshire 5000
576Households and mutual funds are largest US holders of corporate stock
577Market efficiency refers to the extent and speed with which financial security prices reflect unexpected news events
578 Weak form market efficiency - if an investor can use historical news or historical price/volume information, to consistency predict future stock price changes, then markets are not weak form efficient
579 Semistrong form market efficiency - if one can use any publicly available information, including forecasts based on public information to consistently predict future stock price changes, then markets are not semistrong form efficient
580 Strong form market efficiency - if one can use any information, including inside information to consistently predict future stock price changes, then markets are not strong form efficient
581Stock Market Regulations
582 The Securities and Exchange Commission SEC is primary regulator of stock markets
583 Promote full and fair disclosure of information on securities and ensure fair treatment of investors
584 Enforce Securities Acts of 1933/1934
585 Prosecute Inside Trading
586 SEC failed to uncover Madoff fraud, significant turnover of personnel since
587 SEC failed to implemtent many changes required by Dodd-Frank bill
588 Financial Industry Regulatory Authority FINRA is regulator of all US securities firms
589 Oversees registering and educating brokers and dealers, examining securities firms, promulagating rules, enforcing federal securities laws, and conducting dispute arbitration
590International Aspects of Stock Markets
591 US Stock markets are worlds largest
592 Euro markets have increased but were hurt by Euro area crisis
593 UK, Canada, Japan, Pacific Basin showing strong growth
594 International stock markets allow investors to diversify by holding stocks issued by corporations in foreign countries
595 International diversification can increase risk due to incomplete information about foreign stocks as well as foreign exchange and political risk
596American Depository Receipts ADRs - certificant that represents ownership of a foreign stock
597 Created by US bank, after acquiring stock in foreign corporations in their domestic currencies
598 The bank then issues dollar ADRs backed by the shares of the foreign stock, investors earn returns in US dollars
599 Currently 1200~ ADRs in foreign corporations available to US investors representing $2.79trillion
600 Three types of ADRs
601 Level 1 - trade OTC and not required to meet US GAAP nor issue annual reports
602 Level 2 - trade on exchanges and must meet exchange requirements and adhere to US reporting standards
603 Level 3 - meet same reporting standards as Level 2 and must register with SEC and file the equivalent of 10K forms, these firms allowed to raise public capital in the US
604Foreign exhange risk - changes in currency values can significantly impact returns on foreign investments
605Stockholders are the legal owners of a corporation
606 Have a right to share in the firm's profits (dividends)
607 Discretionary, not guaranteed
608 are residual claimants
609 lowest priority claim in event of bankruptcy
610 have limited liability
611 common stockholders can lose no more than their original investment
612 have voting rights (to elect board of directors)
613 control firm activity indrectly by electing like-minded directors
614Common stock is fundamental ownership claim in a public or private corporation
615Dual-class firms have two classes of common shares outstanding, with two different voting rights assigned to each class
616 With cumulative voting, the number of votes assigned to each stockholder equals the number of shares held multiplied by the number of directors elected
617 Number of shares needed to elect p directors Np is
618 Np = [(p * # of shares outstranding) / (# of directors to be elected + 1) ] + 1
619 If number of minority shares outstanding under cumulative voting is known, number of directors that can be elected can be determined
620 Number of directors that can be elected
621 [(Shares owned - 1) * (Total number of directors to be elected +1)] / # of shares outstanding
622 Proxy vote allows stockholders to vote by absentee ballot
623Stock Returns
624 Return on stock over one period Rt can be divided into capital gains and dividend returns
625Right to purchase new shares
626 Holders of common stock must be given first option to buy new shares
627 Ensures management cannot subvert position of present stockholders (maintain ratio)
628Use of rights in Financing
629 Used by many US companies and is popular as fund raising method in Europe
630 Stockholders may choose to sell their rights to buy shares, rather than exercise them
631Preferred stock - hybrid security that has characteristics of both bonds and common stock
632 Has fixed dividends that are paid quarterly
633 Does not have voting rights unless dividend payments are missed
634 Nonparticipating vs Pariticipating
635 Cumulative vs Noncumulative
636
637Chapter 7 Excel formulas
638Mortgage Monthly Payment
639 =-PMT(Rate/payments per year;Term(years)*payments per year;Loanamount)
640Amorization Schedule
641 Beg Balance, Payment, Interest, Principal, Ending Balance
642 Beginning Balance = principal (or previous year's ending balance)
643 Interest
644 =Rate*BeginningBalance/Payments per year
645 Principal
646 = MonthlyPayment - Interest
647 Ending Balance
648 =Beginning Balance - Principal
649 Total Payments
650 =MonthlyPayment*Term(years)*PaymentsPerYear
651 Amount Interest Paid over Life
652 =TotalPayments-LoanAmount
653` Loan Amount with Points Reduction (remember to take away down% first)
654 =LoanAmount*Points/100
655 Point Difference Amount
656 =CostofPoints1stOption-CostofPoints2ndOption
657 Payment Difference
658 =PaymentOption1-PaymentOption2
659 PV Savings
660 =PV(Rate/12;PaymentsPerYear*Term(Years);-PaymentSaveDiff
661 Interest Saving
662 =InterestOption1-InterestOption2
663 Average Interest Saved
664 =AVERAGE(all the interest saved each payment)
665 Break Even
666 =NPER(Rate/12;AverageInterestSaved;-PointsDiffAmount)/12
667Chapter 5 Excel Formulas
668Discount Yield
669 =(FaceValue-MarketPrice)/FaceValue*360/DaystoMaturity
670Bond Equivalent Yield
671 =(FaceValue-MarketPrice)/MarketPrice*365/DaystoMaturity
672EAR
673 =(1+BEYield/(365/DaystoMaturity))^(365/DaystoMaturity)-1
674Bid Price Formula
675 =FaceValue-(BidRate*DaystoMaturity/360*FaceValue)
676Repo Yield Formula
677 =(BuyBackPrice-BuyPrice)/BuyPrice*360/DaystoMaturity
678
679Chapter 10 Excel Formulas
680Margin call
681 Long position +/- increaseordecrease in value = new value
682 closing margin requirement = (margin requirement% * new value)
683 Opening margin = long position * margin requirement
684 closing margin - opening margin = margin surplus or deficit
685 Margin Surplus or Deficit +/- loss in value = margin call
686
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688Chapter 8 Excel Formulas
689Number of directors that can be elected by one person
690 =(# shares oustanding person1 controls - 1)*( # of directors that can be elected)/(#shares outstanding by person 1 + shares controlled by person 2 .... + # remaining shares)
691Number of directors that can be elected by one person (if person gets proxies for uncommitted votes)
692 =(# shares oustanding person1 controls +# of shares outstanding person 2 controlls- 1)*( # of directors that can be elected)/(#shares outstanding by person 1 + shares controlled by person 2 .... + # remaining shares)
693Straight Voting
694 (Number of votes/2) + 1
695Cumulative voting shares required
696 [(# of directors desired * # shares outstanding) / (total number of directors to be elected) ] +1
697
698Value of a Right
699 (Market value of stock - purchase price of new share) / (# shares owned + 1)
700Value before rights offering
701 (Stock value) + (extra cash on hand)
702Value based on diluted value(ex rights)
703 (Market value of stock - Value of a right)
704Sell the rights but keep stock at diluted value, value of portfolio
705 (#shares owned * value based on diluted value) + (#shares owned * value of right) + (extra cash)
706
707Chapter 19 - Types of Risks Incurred by Financial Institutions
708
709Risks at Financial Institutions
710One of the major objectives of a financial institution's (FI)'s managers is to increase FI returns for its owners
711Increased returns typically come at the cost of increased risk, which comes in many forms
712
713Credit Risk- risk that promised cash flows from loans and securities held by FIS may not be paid in full
714 FIs make loans or buy bonds backed by small percentage of capital
715 Thus banks/thrifts/insurance companies can be significantly hurt even by minor amounts of loan losses
716 Many financial claims issued by individuals or corporations have
717 Limited upside return
718 Large downside risk with low probability
719 A key role in FIs involves screening and monitoring loan applicants ensure only credit worthy receive loans
720 FIs also charge interest rates commensurate with riskiness of borrower
721 Effects of credit risk are evidenced by net-charge offs
722 Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005 makes it more difficult for consumers to declare bankruptcy
723 FIs can diversify away some individual firm-specific credit risk, but not systematic credit risk
724 Firm-specific credit risk - risk of default for borrowing firm associated with specific types of project risk taken by that firm
725 Systematic credit risk- risk of default with general economy-wide or macroeconomic conditions affecting all borrowers
726Liquidity Risk - risk that sudden/unexpected increase in liability withdrawals or unexpected loan demand may require FI to liquidate assets in a very short period of time at low prices
727 Day-to-day withdrawals and loan demand are generally predictable
728 FIs may hold liquid assets and/or rely on purchased funds
729 Purchased funds include short-term borrowing such as federal funds loans and brokered deposits
730 Unusually large withdrawals by liability holders can create liquidity problems:
731 Cost of purchased and/or borrowed funds rises for FIs
732 Supply of purchased/borrowed funds declines
733 FIs may be forced to sell less liquid assets at "fire-sale" prices
734Interest Rate Risk - risk incurred by FI when maturities of its assets and liabilitites are mismatched and interest rates are volatile
735 Asset transformation involves an FI issuing secondary securities or liabilities to fund the purchase of primary securities or assets
736 If an FI's assets are longer-term than its liabilities, it faces refinancing risk (risk that the cost of rolling over or reborrowing funds will rise above the returns being earned on asset investments)
737 If an FI's assets are shorter-term than its liabilities, it faces reinvestment risk (risk that returns on funds to be reinvested will fall below the cost of funds)
738 Net Interest Margin = [(Average assets earning - Liabilities paying)*fixed earning assets] / fixed earning assets
739 All FIs face price/market risk (risk that price of security changes when interest rates change
740 FIs can hedge/protect themselves against interest rate risk by matching maturity of assets and liabilities
741 Approach is inconsistent with asset transformation function
742 They may match the rate sensitivity of their assets and liabilities
743 May match duration of assets and liabilities
744 Changes Occur because of fixed rate bond changes with market rates
745 Interest expense also changes because CD rates change when CD is reissued each year
746Market Risk- risk incured in trading assets and liabilities due to changes in interest rates, exchange rates, and other asset prices
747 Closely related to interest and foreign exchange risk
748 Adds risk of trading activity (market risk incremental risk incurred by an FI in addition to interest rate or foreign exchange risk, caused by an active trading strategy
749 FIs trading portfolios are differentiated from their investment portfolios on the basis of time horizon and liquidity
750 trading assets, liabilities, and derivatives are highly liquid
751 investment portfolios are relatively illliquid and are usually held for longer periods of time
752 Declines in traditional banking activity and income at large commercial banks have been offset by increases in trading activities and income
753 Declines in underwriting and brokerage income at large investment banks have been offset by increases in trading activity and income
754 Certain types of MFs such as REITS are also exposed to market risk
755 FIs are concerned with fluctuations in trading account assets and liabilities
756 Value at risk VAR - and dailty earnings at risk DEAR are measured used to assess market risk exposure
757 Market risk exposure has caused some higly publicized losses
758 2012 JP Morgan $6 billion loss on credit default swaps
759 7.2 billion loss Societe Generale 2008
760 buyouts of lots of banks in 07/08
761Off-Balance-Sheet Risk - risk incurred by an FI as result of activities related to contingent assets and liabilities
762 Commercial banks held 233.853 trillion in 2013
763 OBS activity can increase FI's interest rate risk, credit risk, and foreign exchange risk
764 OBS activity can used to hedge/reduce FI's interest rate risk, credit risk, and foreign exchange risk
765 OBS activities can affect the future shape of FIs balance sheets
766 OBS items can become on-balance-sheet items only if some future event occurs
767 Letter of Credit LOC is a credit guarantee issued by an FI for a fee on which payment is contingent on some future event occuring, most notably default of the agent that purchases the LOC
768 Other examples
769 Loan commitments by banks
770 Mortgage servicing contracts by savings institutions
771 Positions in forwards, futures, swaps, and other derivatives held by almost all large FIs
772 The effect of OBS activity can materially affect equity value and bank risk exposure
773 Large commercial banks engage in OBS activity
774 Losses on OBS commitments in the financial crisis indicate that banks had excessive risks in their derivatives activities and did not have sufficient capital to back these commitments
775 Very complex derivatives sold by banks
776 In some cases the securities were so complicated that ratings agencies and regulators had to rely on banker's assessment of riskiness of securities
777Foreign Exchange Risk - risk that exchange rate changes can affect the value of an FI's assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies
778 FIs can reduce risk through domestic-foreign activity/investment diversification
779 FIs can expand globally through
780 Acquiring foreign firms or opening new branches in foreign countries
781 Investing in foreign financial assets
782 Returns on domestic and foreign direct and portfolio investment are not perfectly correlated
783 Underlying technologies of various economies differ
784 Exchange rate changes are not perfectly correlated across countries
785 A Net Long position in a foreign currency involves holding more foreign assets than liabilities
786 FI losses when foreign currency falls relative to US dollar
787 FI gains when foreign currency appreciates relative to US dollar
788 A Net Short position in a foreign currency involves holding less foreign assets than liabilities
789 FI gains when foreign currency falls relative to US dollar
790 FI losses when foreign currency appreciates relative to US dollar
791 A FI is fully hedged if it holds equal foreign currency denominated assets and liabilities (same maturity)
792Country/Sovereign Risk - risk that repayments from foreign borrowers may be interrupted because of interference from foreign governments
793 differs from credit risk of FI's domestic assets
794 with domestic assets, FIs usually have some recourse through bankruptcy courts - FIs can recoup some of their losses when defaulted firms are liquidated or restructured
795 Foreign corporations may be unable to pay principal/interest even if they would desire to do so
796 Foreign governments may limit/prohibit debt repayment due to foreign currency shortages or adverse political events
797 Thus FI claimholder may have little to no recourse to local bankruptcy courts or to international claims court
798 Measuring sovereign risk includes analyzing:
799 Trade policy of foreign government
800 Fiscal stance of foreign government
801 Potential government intervention in the economy
802 Foreign governments's monetary policy
803 Capital flows and foreign investment
804 Foreign country's current and expected inflation rates
805 Structure of the foreign country's financial system
806Technology Risk - risk incurred by an FI when it's technological investments do not produce anticipated cost savings
807 Major objectives of technological expansion are to allow the FI to exploit potential economies of scale and scope by
808 Lowering operating costs
809 Increasing profits
810 Capturing new markets
811Operational Risk - risk that existing technology or support systems may malfunction or break down
812Insolvency Risk- risk that an FI may not have enough capital to offset a sudden decline in the value of it's assets relative to it's liabilities
813 Insolvency risk - consequence or an outcome of one or more of the risks previously described:
814 Interest rate, market, credit, OBS, technological, foreign excahnge, sovereign, and/or liquidity risk
815 Generally the more equity capital to assets an FI has, the less insolvency risk it is exposed to
816 Both regulators and managers focus on capital adequacy as a measure of an FI's ability to remain solvent
817Other risks and interactions among risk
818 In reality all of the previous defined risks are interdependent
819 example - liquidity risk can be a function of interest rate and credit risk
820 When managers take actions to mitigate one type of risk, they must consider effects on other risks
821 Charges in regulatory policy constitute another type of discrete or event-specific risk
822 War, revolutions, sudden market collapses, theft, malfeasance, breach of fiduciary trust
823 Macroeconomic risks - increased inflation, interest rate rolatility, unemployment, recent financial crisis
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891Chapter 20 - Managing Credit Risk on Balance Sheet
892
893Asset Transformation
894 Financial Institutions FIs transform financial claims of household savers efficiently into claims issued to corporations, individuals, and governments
895 Size - multiple small claims into fewer large claims
896 Maturity - short term into longer term
897 FIs process and evaluate information and control and monitor borrowers at lowest possible cost to all parties
898Risk Management
899 Price asset for expected/mean risk (risk premium)
900 Manage portfolio to minimize variability of actual risk
901 Diversificiation and law of large numbers
902 Credit allocation
903 FIs accept risks of loans in return for interest that is expected to cover operating costs and the costs of funding net of defaults
904Credit Risk Management
905 Credit quality of many FI lending and investment decisions has been questioned in past 25 years
906 Problems of real estate/junk bond lending at banks/thrifts/insurance in late 80s early 90s
907 Concerns of rapid increase of credit cards and auto lending in late 90s
908 Commercial lending standards decline late 90s, lead to increases in high yield business loan delinquiencies
909 Concern shifting to technology loans in late 90s and early 00s
910 Mortgage delinquencies (subprime) surged in 06-08, with mortgage and credit card delinquencies still a concern, but have improved recently
911 Larger banks are generally more likely to accept riskier loans than small banks (diversification)
912 Larger banks are more exposed to counterparty risk off-the-balance-sheet than smaller banks
913 Managerial efficiency and credit risk management strategies directly affect the return and risk of the loan porfolio
914 At the extreme, credit risk can lead to insolvency as large loan losses can wipe an FI's equity capital
915 Losses from both on and off-balance sheet claims resulting from subprime crisis reached $2.3 trillion worldwide
916 Net charge-off rates reached record highs at end of 08 at 1.95%, 2010 2.54%, 0.52% 2014
917 Lots of bank failures in 09-13
918Credit Analysis
919 Real Estate Lending
920 Mortgage loan applicants are among most standard of all credit applications
921 Decisions to approve or disapprove depend on
922 Applicant's ability and willingness to make timely interest/prinicipal payments
923 Value of borrower's collateral
924 Ability to maintain mortgage payements measured by
925 GDS - gross debt service
926 Equal to total accomodation expenses (mortgage, lease, condominium, management fees, real estate taxes, etc) divided by gross income
927 Acceptable threshold generally around 25%-30% max
928 TDS - Total debt service
929 Equal to the total accommodation expenses plus all other debt service payments divided by gross income
930 Acceptable threshold generally set around 35%-40% max
931 FIs also use credit scoring systems to evaluate potential borrowers (willingness)
932 Mathematical models that use observed loan applicants charactertistics to calculate a score that represents the applicants probability of default
933 Loan officers can often give immediate "yes" or "no" answers along with justificiations for the decision
934 Lender may use standard FICO credit scores
935 FICO scores run from 350-850, with majority from 600-800
936 Scores of 720 or higher are usually sufficient to receive good mortgage rate
937 ADD FICO SCORE FACTORS SLIDE 19 (lot of them)
938 Credit scores based on historical data
939 Evaluation based on historic default rates
940 Do not include macroeconomic variables (change in GPD and unemployment)
941 FIs also verify borrower's financial statements
942 Perfecting collateral - process of ensuring that collateral used to secure a loan is free and clear to the lender should borrower default on the loan
943 Before FI accepts a mortgage it:
944 Confirms title and legal description of the property
945 Obtains a surveyor's certificate confirming house is within property boundaries
946 Checks with tax office to confirm that no property taxes are unpaid
947 Requests a land title search to determine that there are no other claims against property
948 Obtains independent appraisal to confirm purchase price is in line with market value of property
949 FIs do not desire to become involved in loans that are likely to go into default
950 In event of default, lenders usually have recourse
951 Foreclosure - process of taking possession of mortgaged property in satisfaction of defaulting borrower's indebtedness and forgoing claim to any deficiency
952 Power of sale - process of taking proceedings of forced sale of mortgaged property in satisfaction of indebtedness and returning to the mortgagor the excess over the indebtedness of claiming any shortfall as an unsecured creditor
953 Consume and small business lending
954 Techniques similar to mortgage lending
955 However nonmortgage consumer loans focus on ability to repay rather on the property
956 Credit models put more emphasis on personal characteristics
957 Often a fully automated process
958 Small-business loan decisions often combine financial analysis of borrower financial statements (computer based) with behavorial analysis of the business owner (credit score)
959 Mid-market commercial and industrial lending
960 Generally a profitable market for credit-granting FIs
961 Typically mid-market corporates:
962 Have sales revenues from $5 million to $100 million per year
963 Have recognizable corporate structure
964 Do not have ready access to deep and liquid capital markets
965 Commercial loans can be as short as a few weeks to as long as 8+ years
966 Short-term loans are used to finance working capital needs
967 Long-term loans are used to finance fixed asset purchases
968 Generally at least 2 loan officers must approve a new loan customer
969 Large credit requests are presented formally to a credit approval officer/committee
970 FIs perform cash flow analyses, which provide information regarding an applicant's expected cash receipts and disbursements
971 Statement of cash flows separate cash flows into:
972 Cash flows from operating activities
973 Cash flows from investing activities
974 Cash flows from financing activities
975 FIs may also perform ratio analyses
976 Time-series analyses
977 Cross-sectional analyses
978 Common ratio analysis includes:
979 Liquidity ratios (current ratio and quick ratio ie the acid test)
980 Asset management ratios
981 Number of days in receivables
982 Number of days in inventories
983 Sales to working capital
984 Sales to fixed assets
985 Sales to total assets (asset turnover ratio)
986 Debt and solvency ratios
987 Debt-to-assets ratio
988 Times interest earned ratio
989 Cash-flow-to-debt ratio
990 Profitability ratios
991 Gross margin
992 Operating profit margin
993 Return on assets ROA
994 Return on equity ROE
995 Dividend payout ratio
996 Ratio analysis has limitations
997 Diverse firms are difficult to compare versus benchmarks
998 Different accounting methods can distort industry comparisons
999 Applicants can distort financial statements
1000 Common-size analysis and growth rates
1001 Common-size financial statements present values as percentages to facilitate comparison vs competitors
1002 Year-to-year growth rates can identify trends
1003 Loan covenants can be used as part of the loan agreement to mitigate credit risk
1004 Proforma financial statements
1005 Income statement, balance sheet, cash flows, often quartly, how will borrower generate cash to repay loan, evaluate proforma statements using actual historial statements
1006 Following approval, account officers ensures conditions precedent have been cleared
1007 (conditions that must be fulfilled before drawings permitted)
1008 (includes title searches, perfecting collateral, etc)
1009 FIs typically wish to develop permanent, long-term mutually beneficial relationships with their mid-market commercial and industrial customers
1010 Large commercial and industrial lending
1011 Fees and spreads are smaller relative to small and mid-size corporate loans, but transaction sizes are large to make them worthwhile
1012 FIs relationships with large clients often center around broker/dealer/advisor activities with lending playing a lesser role
1013 Large corporations often use:
1014 Loan commitments
1015 Performance guarantees (letters of credit)
1016 Term loans
1017 Account officers often rely on rating agencies and market analysts to aid credit analysis
1018 Altman's score Z - 1.2x1 + 1.4x2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6x4+1.0x5
1019 X1= working capital ÷ total assets
1020 X2= retained earnings ÷ total assets
1021 X3= earnings before interest and taxes ÷ total assets
1022 X4= market value of equity ÷ book value of long-term debt
1023 X5= sales ÷ total assets
1024 Higher z-score, lower probability of default
1025 Less than 1.81 high default risk, 2.99+ low default risk
1026 Between is indeterminate
1027 Z-score is historically based and does not consider state of economy
1028 Market based approaches
1029 Moody analystics KMV - uses option pricing model of Merton/Black/Scholes to calculate expected default frequencies
1030 EDF predicts probability of whether market value of firm's assets will fall below required debt repayments in one year
10315 Cs of Credit
1032 Character - will loan applicant try to honor the loan obligations
1033 Capacity - ability to repay the loan
1034 Collateral - sufficient collateral that can be used to repay the loan in event of default
1035 Conditions - general economic trends/regional sector issues that might affect ability of loan applicant ability to repay?
1036 Capital - does general financial condition of loan applicant indicate that applicant will be able repay loan
1037Calculating return on a loan
1038 Return on assets ROA approach - uses contractually promised gross return on a loan K per dollar lent
1039 ADD 20-45 FORMULA
1040 Risk-adjusted return on assets RAROC model balances loan expected income against expected risk
1041 RAROC = one-year income on a loan / loan (asset) risk or value at risk
1042 RAROC is compared to lenders tax adjusted return on equity ROE
1043 If RAROC>ROE make loan
1044 If RAROC<ROE adjust loan so that it matches above or decline the loan
1045Loan portfolio risk and management
1046 Expected portfolio return is weighted average of expected returns of various loans in portfolio
1047 Rp = SigmaNi=1 XiRi (ADD FORMULA SLIDE 52)
1048 Expected portfolio variance
1049 O2p = SigmaNi=1 X2iO2i + XiXjOij (ADD FORMULA SLIDE 52)
1050 FI managers can reduce loan risk by changing mix of loans to reduce the correlation among various types of loans
1051 Southeast bank (commercial real estate), Continential illnois bank (oil production), Bank of new england (centrated in New England)
1052 Increasing size permits greater diversification
1053 Industry
1054 Geography
1055 Customers
1056 Diversification may allow FI to increase returns with little increase in risk
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1077
1078Mutual funds - pool resources of many small investors, sell them shares, use proceeds to buy securities
1079Mutual Fund Structure - shareholders/owners of the mutual fund are the investors
1080 Board of directors oversees the fund's activities, hires investment advisor, underwriter, etc to manage day to day activities of the fund
1081 Investment companies offer number of different types of mutual funds
1082 Investors can often move investments among these funds without penalty
1083 Complexes often issue consolidated statements for investors
1084First Mutual Fund was established in Boston in 1924
1085 1970 - 360 MFs held about 50 billion in assets
1086 Money Market Mutual Funds MMMFs were introduced in 1970
1087 Tax-exempt MMMFs were introduced 1979
1088 By 2013, 7700+ MFs held over $15 trillion in assets
1089Cash flows into MFs are highly correlated with return on stock markets
1090 Growth has also resulted from the rise in retirement funds under management by MFs
1091 MFs managed ~25% of retirement fund assets in 2013
1092 MFs are the second most important group of FIs as measured by asset size, 2nd to only commercial banks
1093 Banks' share of all MF assets was 6% in 2013
1094 Insurance companies managed 5% of MF industry assets in 2013
10955 Major Benefits of Mutual Funds
1096 1 - Liquidity Intermediation
1097 investors can quickly convert instruments into cash
1098 still invest for long term
1099 2 - Denomination intermediation
1100 Investors can participate in equity and debt offerings that individually require more capital than they possess
1101 3 - Diversification
1102 Investors immediately realize benefits of diversification even for small investments
1103 4 - Cost advantages
1104 Mutual fund can negotiate lower transaction fees than available to individual investor
1105 5 - Managerial expertise
1106 Many investrors prefer to rely on professional money managers to select investments
1107Primary Reserve Money Fund
1108 Sept 08 Primary Reserve Fund - money market mutual fund "broke the buck" - had its share value fall below standard $1 due to losses on large commercial paper issued by Lehman Brothers
1109 Led to contagion and run on money funds over $200 billion outflows over next few days
1110 Treasury guaranteed payments on money funds for one year to stop the runs. Insurance ran out Sep 19 09
1111 Proposed new rules by SEC mandate mf shares fluctuate with value of fund holdings to prevent runs
1112Net asset value - total value of mutual fund stocks/bonds/cash/other assets minus liabilities (such as accrued fees), divided by number of shares outstanding
1113Barriers to entry in MF industry are low
1114 Largest MF sponsors have not increased their market share recently
1115 Largest 25 MF companies managed 73% of industry assets in 95 and 13
1116 Composition of top 25 firms industry has changed
1117 15 of the largest 25 firms in 13 were not among top 25 in 90
1118 MF Industry has 2 sectors
1119 Short-term funds invest in securities with original maturities less than 1 year
1120 Money market mutual funds
1121 Tax-exempt money market mutual funds
1122 Long-term funds invest in portfolios of securities with original maturities larger 1 year
1123 Equity funds (common and preferred stock)
1124 bond funds (fixed income capital market debt securities)
1125 hybrid funds (stock and bond securities together)
1126 in 2013 there were 373 index funds managing 1.3 trillion
1127 Index funds are funds in which managers buy securities in proportions to those included in a specific major index
1128 Index funds involve little research or management, which results in lower management fees and higher returns than actively managed funds
1129 Exchange traded funds ETFs are designed to replicate market indexes
1130 traded on exchanges at prices determined by the market
1131 management fees are lower than actively traded funds
1132 unlike index funds, ETFs can be traded during the day, sold short, and purchased on margin
1133 Money Market Mutual Funds MMMFs provide alternative investment to interest-bearing deposits at commercial banks
1134 bank deposits are relatively less risky, because they are FDIC insured, and generally offer lower returns than MMMFs
1135 Households own majority of MFs
1136 owned 57.4% long term 2013, 38.4% short term
1137 44.4% of all US households owned MFs in 2010 (53.8 million households)
1138 typical owner has $80,000 invested in 4 funds, most do not buy or sell online
1139 MF Managers must specify their fund's investment objectives in a prospectus (formal summary of a proposed investment), which is made available to potential investors
1140 holds list of securities invested by the funds
1141 in 98 SEC mandated prospectuses must be written in "plain English", not "legalese"
1142 Mutual Funds are required to publish specific objectives of fund in prospectus
1143 No investor should invest in a fund without carefully reading the prospectus
1144 Prospectus will contain historical return information (1,3,5 yr periods, sometimes longer)
1145 Prospectus must also show historical fees and effect of those fees on given investment over time
1146 Little information on the risk is usually provided
1147Other investment companies
1148 Open-end MF - fund for which supply of shares is not fixed, but can increase/decrease daily with purchases and redemptions of shares
1149 Closed-end investment company - specialized investment company that has a fixed supply of outstanding shares, but invests in the securities and assets of other firms
1150 13 there were 265 billion in 600 closed end funds
1151 Unit Trust / Real Estate Investment Trust - closed-end investment company that specializes in investing in mortgages, property, or real estate company shares
1152 These funds have a static composition and a fixed termination date
1153 13 there were $72 billion in 5000+ UITs
1154Fund Returns
1155 Investor returns from MF ownership reflect 3 components
1156 Income and Dividends on portfolio assets
1157 capital gains on assets bought and sold at higher prices
1158 capital appreciation on assets held in the fund
1159 MF assets are marked to market daily
1160 prices are adjusted once per day to reflect changes in the current market prices of portfolio assets
1161 Net Asset Value NAV is MF share equal to market value of the assets in the MF portfolio less liabilities divided by the number of shares outstanding
1162Mutual Funds (again)
1163 MFs charge investors fees for services they provide
1164 Sales loads (front or back end)
1165 12b-1 fees are related to distribution costs of MF shares
1166 cannot exceed 1% of average net assets for load funds
1167 cannot exceed 0.25% of average annual net assets for no load funds
1168 MFs may offer different share classes with different combinations of loads
1169 A load fund is a MF with an up-front sales or commission charge that the investor must pay
1170 A no-load fund is an MF that does not charge up-front sales or commission charges on the sale of mutual fund shares to investors
1171Mutual fund quotes
1172 MF quotes are similar to stock quotes, most provide NAV, investment objective, expense ratio, and load charges (if any)
1173 Morningstar ranks fund returns within the investment objective
1174 Historial rankings are not predictive of future performance
1175Effect of costs on MF Returns (FORMULA)
1176 Amount initially invested AII= $amount placed - (%load * $amount placed)
1177 Amount after gross return AAGR = AII * (1+ gross return%)
1178 Average asset value for year AAVFY = (AAGR + AII) / 2
1179 Fees = AAVFY * annual expense%
1180 Ending amount after fees EAAF = AAGR - Fees
1181 Net Rate of return (first year) = (EAAF - $amount placed) - 1
1182Mutual Fund Regulations
1183 MFs are heavily regulated because they manage and invest small investor savings
1184 The SEC is primary regulator
1185 SEC Acts of 1933 and 1934
1186 Investment Advisers Act and Investment Company Act of 1940
1187 Insider Trading and Securities Fraud Enforcement Act of 1988
1188 Market Reform Act of 1990
1189 National Securities Market Improvement Act NSMIA of 1996
1190 Even with heavy regulation, investor abuses still occur
1191 Market timing- short term trading that profits from out-of-date values on securities in fund porfolio
1192 Late trading- buys and sells long after prices have been set at 4PM ET
1193 Directed brokerage - occurs when brokers improperly influence investors on fund recommendations
1194 Improperly assessed fees - occurs when brokers trick customers into thinking they are buying no-load funds or fail to provide discounts properly
1195
1196Global Issues
1197 During 90s mutual funds were fastest growing FI in US
1198 Growth slowed in 01, reversing decade long trend, but picked up in mid 00s, declining again during the crisis
1199 Late 2000s growth in non-US investments outpaced growth in US funds
1200 Total assets of non-US mutual funds were 162.6 billion in 92, 2013 is 14.18 trillion
1201 Mutual funds overseas focused in Japan, France, Australia, and Great Britain
1202Hedge Funds
1203 Hedge Funds HFs are investment pools that solicit funds from wealthy individuals and other investors (commercial banks) and invest these funds on their behalf
1204 Similar to MFs, but smaller funds under $100 million in assets are not required to register with SEC
1205 Subject to less regulatory oversight than mutual funds and generally can (and do) take signficantly more risk than MFs
1206 Do not have to publicly disclose activities to third parties and thus offer higher privacy
1207 HF avoid regulation by limiting investors to less than 100 and requiring investors to be "accredited"
1208 meaning net worth of $1 million+ or annual income 200,000+(300k if married)
1209 HFs use more aggressive trading strategies than MFs such as short selling, leverage, program trading, arbitrage, and use of derivatives
1210 Because not all HFs are registered, industry and firm data cannot be accurately tracked
1211 8000HFs in US 2013, with 2.25 trillion in assets
1212 new asset flows track market performance
1213 Three basic types of HFs
1214 More risky, market directional - these funds seek high returns using leverage, typically investing based on anticipated events
1215 Moderate risk, market neutral or value orientation - these funds have moderate exposure to market risk, typically favoring a longer-term investment strategy
1216 Risk avoidance - market neutral - these funds strive for moderate, consistent returns with low risk
1217 Management fees on HFs are computed as percent of assets under management, often 1.5%-2%
1218 Performance fees give fund managers share of any positive returns earned
1219 Average is 20%, but performance fees vary substantially depending on HF
1220 Hurdle rate - benchmark that must be ralized before performance fee can be taken
1221 High-water mark - when manager does not receive performance fee unless value of fund exceeds the highest NAV is has previously achieved
1222 Offshore HFs are attractive to investors because anonymouse and not subject to US taxes
1223 HFs under $100 million in assets are excempt from registration requirements set by ICA 1940
1224 HFs less than 100 investors, accredited investors, sold only as private placements
1225 HFs are prohibited from abusive (illegal) trading practices
1226 Dodd-Frank requires HFs with more than $100 million register with SEC under current IAA
1227 Large fund advisors must now report financial information on the funds they manage to the FSOC to help limit systematic risk in the economy
1228 Federal Reserve can also exercise oversight of funds deemed large enough or interconnected enough to present a systematic risk
1229 Financial crisis reduced amount of assets in HF because of losses, although a few did well during the crisis
1230 HFs as a whole underperformed the S&P500 in 09 in raw returns
1231 Recent HF performance generally lagged behind overall stock market
1232High Profile HF Problems
1233 Collapse of Bear Stearns HF lead to losses of 1.6 billion and bankruptcy
1234 Madoff $65 billion ponzi scheme Galleon Group LLC closed insider trading in 09
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1260Chapter 21 - Managing Liquidity Risk on the Balance Sheet
1261Liquidity Risk Management
1262 Unlike other risks, liquidity risk is a normal aspect of everyday management of FIs
1263 At extreme, liquidity rsk can lead to insolvency
1264 Some FIs are more exposed to liquidity risk than others
1265 Depository institutions DIs are highly exposed
1266 Mutual funds, pension funds, life insurers & propery-casualty insurers are lower risk
1267 One type of liquidity risk arises when FI's liability holders seek to withdraw their claims
1268 FIs must meet the withdrawals with stored or borrowed funds
1269 Alternatively, FIs may have to sell assets to generate cash, which can be costly if assets can only be sold at fire-sale price
1270 Second type of liqudity arises from exercise of off-balance-sheet committments made by FI
1271 Unexpected loan demand can occur when off-balance-sheet loan commitments are drawn down suddenly in large volumes
1272 FIs are contractually obliged to supply funds through loan commitments immediately should they be drawn down
1273Liquidity Risk and Depository Institutions DIs
1274 DIs balance sheets typically have
1275 Large amount of short-term liabilities such as deposits and other transaction accounts that must be paid out immediately if demanded by depositors
1276 Large amounts of relatively illiquid long-term assets like commercial loans/mortgages
1277 DIs know that normally only a small portion of demand deposits will be withdrawn on any given day
1278 Most demand deposits are core deposits - they are stable and long-term funding source
1279 Deposit withdrawals are normally offset by inflow of new deposits
1280 DI managers monitor net deposit drains - amount by which cash withdrawals exceed additions; a net cash outflow
1281 DIs manage liquidity needs by two methods;
1282 Stored liquidity
1283 Maintaining liquid assets to meet cash needs
1284 Primary method for community banks
1285 Liquidating cash stores and and selling existing assets
1286 Banks hold cash reserves in vaults and at Fed in excess of minimum requirement
1287 When managers use stored liquity to fund deposit drains, size of balance sheet is reduced and composition changes
1288 Purchased liquidity
1289 Rely on ability to acquire funds from brokered deposits and borrowings
1290 Used primarily by largest banks with access to money market and other nondeposit sources of funds
1291 Using interbank market for short-term loans
1292 Fed-funds
1293 repurchase agreements
1294 Acquiring fixed-maturity certificate of deposits
1295 Issuing notes and bonds
1296 Allows FIs maintain overall size of balance when faced with liquidity demands
1297 Purchased liquidity may be expensive relative to stored liquidity and adds volatility of interest expense
1298 Most DIs utilize a combination of both stored and purchased liquidity management
1299 Loan commitments and other credit lines can cause liquidity needs
1300 as with liability side liquidity risk, asset size liquidity risk can be managed with srtored or purchased liquidity
1301 If stored liquidity is used to fund commitments, the composition of the asset side of the balance sheet changes, but not the size of the balance sheet
1302 If purchased liquidity is used to fund commitments, the composition of both the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet changes, and the size of the balance sheet increases
1303Measuring Liquidity Risk Exposure
1304 Liquidity position of banks is measured by managers on a daily basis
1305 Net liquidity statement lists sources and uses of liquidity
1306 Peer group ratio comparisons are used compare bank's liquidity position against its competitors
1307 Ratios are often compared to banks of similar size and location
1308 Ratios for peer groups of similar banks can be constructed at FFIEC website
1309 Liquidity index measures potential losses a bank could suffer from a sudden or fire-sale disposal of assets vs the sale of same assets at fair market value under normal market conditions
1310 Financing Gap - difference between bank's average loans and average(core) deposits
1311 If financing gap is positive, bank must borrow to fund gap
1312 Financing gap funding = -Liquid assets + Borrowed funds
1313 Financing requirement is financing gap plus a bank's liquid assets
1314 Financing gap lending = -Liquid assets + borrowed funds
1315 Thus financing requirement(or borrowed funds) = Financing Gap + Liquid Assets
1316 A widening financing gap can be an indicator of future liquidity problems
1317 New Liquidity Risk Measures by BIS
1318 Liquidity Coverage Ratio LCR
1319 = Stock of high quality assets
1320 total net cash outflows over next 30 days >100%
1321 LCR ensures that DIs can survie severe liquidity stress scenarios for 30 days
1322 High quality liquid assets:
1323 Must remain liquid in times of stress
1324 convertible into cash at little loss of value and can be used at central bank discount window as collateral
1325 must be "unemcumbered"
1326 Divided into Level 1 and Level 2
1327 Level 1 has no cap
1328 Cash + central bank reserves + sovereign debt
1329 Level 2 capped at 40% of total liquid assets
1330 Minimum 15% "haircut" has to be applied to value of each lv2 asset
1331 Max of 85% value included
1332 Level 2 assets may not aggregate account for more than 40% of a bank's stock of high-quality liquid assets
1333 2A = mortgage-backed securities with govt guarantee + corp bonds (vanilla) rated at least AA
1334 2B = Residential mortgage-backed securities that are not government guaranteed + lower rated corporate bonds (vanilla) + blue chip equities
1335 Level 2B may not account for more than 15% of bank's stock of high- quality liquid assets
1336 Potential cash outflows
1337 Retail deposits = stable + less stable
1338 Stable = deposits covered by deposit insurance
1339 minimum run-off factor of 3%
1340 Less stable = deposits not covered by deposit insurance
1341 minimum run-of f factor of 10%
1342 Retail deposits with maturity > 30 days and no early withdrawal
1343 0% runoff factor
1344 Unsecured wholesale funds with < 30 days maturity (callable by funds provider)
1345 100% runoff factor
1346 Secured funds backed by level 1 assets
1347 0% runoff factor
1348 Backed by level 2 assets
1349 15% runoff factor
1350 Loss of funding on commercial paper if maturity <30 days
1351 (100% runoff)
1352 All debt maturing within 30days
1353 (100% runoff)
1354 Loan commitment (draw-down) factors:
1355 5% drawdowns on committed credit and liquidity facilities to retail and small business customers
1356 10% draw-downs on committed credit facilities to nonfinancial corporate, sovereign, and central banks, public sector entities, and multilateral development banks
1357 30% drawdowns on committed liquidity facilities to nonfinancial corporate, sovereign, and central banks, public sector entities, and multilateral development banks
1358 40% drawdowns on committed credit and liquidity facilities to other legal entities
1359 FIs (including banks, securities firms, and insurance companies)
1360 Conduits and special purpose vehicles
1361 Fiduciaries beneficiaries
1362 Cash outflows relating to operating costs
1363 0% runoff factor
1364 Include only inflows for sources where no default is expected in next 30 days
1365 75% cap on inflows meeting outflows so DIs do not rely on just inflows for liquidity
1366 No lines of credit on other banks can be drawn on (0% inflow)
1367 100% inflow received on wholesale loans
1368 50% inflow on retail loans from counterparties
1369 100% inflow on known derivative payments
1370 Total net cash outflows (denominator of LCR ratio) over next 30 days =
1371 Outflows = Min(Inflows; 75% of outflows)
1372 New Liquidity Risk Measures by BIS
1373 Net Stable Funding Radio NSFR
1374 NSFR = Available amount of stable funding
1375 Required amount of stable funding > 100%
1376 Intraday liquidity requirements for large internationally active banks
1377Available Stable Funding
1378 Bank Capital - preferred stock with maturity > 1 year
1379 Preferred stock not included in Tier 2 included taking into account any explicit or embedded options that would reduce expected maturity to less than 1 year
1380 Liabilities with maturities > 1 year
1381 Portion of retail deposits and wholesale deposits expected to stay with the bank during a period of idiosyncratic stress
1382 "Stable" nonmaturity (demand) deposits and/or term deposits (as defined in the LCR) with residual maturities of less than one year provided by retail customers and small business customers
1383 ASF factor of 90%
1384 "Less stable" (as defined by LCR) nonmaturity (demand) deposits and/or term deposits with residual maturities of less than one year provided by retail customers and small business customers
1385 ASF Factor of 80%
1386 Unsecured wholesale funding, nonmaturity deposits and/or term deposits with a residual maturity of less than one year, provided by nonfinancial corporates, sovereigns, cental banks, multilateral development banks, and PSEs
1387 ASF Factor of 50%
1388Stable Funding Required
1389 Required amount of stable funding is sum of
1390 Value of on-balance-sheet assets held and funded by DI, multiplied by specific required stable funding RSF factor assigned to each particular asset type
1391 Amount of off-balance-sheet OBS activities (or potential liquidity exposure) multiplied by the associated RSF factor
1392 RSF factor applied to reported values of each asset or OBS exposure is the amount of that item that supervisors believe should be supported with stable funding
1393Assets not Requiring Funding (RSF = 0%)
1394 Cash not currently encumbered as collateral and not held for planned use
1395 Unencumbered short-term unsecured instruments and transactions with outstanding maturities less than one year
1396 Unencumbered securities with slated remaining maturities of less than one year
1397 REPOs
1398Assets Requiring 5% funding (RSF 5%)
1399 Unencumbered marketable securities with residual maturities of one year or greater representing claims on or claims guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks, BIS, IMF, EC, etc with 0% Basel III rating
1400 Off-balance-sheet exposures require little long-term funding
1401 Revocable and irrevocable credit and liquidity facilities to any client
1402Assets Requiring 20% Funding (RSF 20%)
1403 Unencumbered corporate bonds or covered bonds rated AA- or higher with residual maturities of one year or greater satisfying all of the conditions for Level 2 assets in the LCR
1404 Unencumbered marketable securities with residual maturities of one year or greater representing claims on or claims guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks, BIS, IMF, EC, etc with 20% Bazel III rating satisfying all conditions for Level 2 assets in the LCR
1405Assets Requiring 50% Funding (RSF 50%)
1406 Unencumbered gold
1407 Unencumbered equity securities, not issued by financial institutions or their affiliates, listed on a recognized exchange and included in a large cap market index
1408 Unencumbered loans to nonfinancial corporate clients, sovereigns, central banks, and PSEs having a remaining maturity of less than 1 year
1409 Unencumbered corporate bonds and covered bonds that satisfy all of the following:
1410 Central bank eligibility to intraday liquidity needs and overnight liquidity shortages in relevant jurisdictions
1411 Not issued by financial institutons or their affiliates (except for covered bonds)
1412 Not issued by the respective firm itself or its affiliates
1413 Low credit risk assets
1414 Credit assessment by a recognized ECAI of A+ to BBB
1415 Do not have a credit assessment by a recognized ECAI and are internally rated as having a PD corresponding to a credit assessment of A+ to BBB-
1416 Traded in large, deep, active markets characterized by low level of concentration
1417Assets Requiring 65% Funding (RSF 65%)
1418 Unencumbered residential mortgages any maturity that qualify for Bazel III rating 35% or less
1419 Other unencumbered loans, exclusing loans to financial institutions, with remaining maturity of 1 year or greater, that quality for Basel III rating 35% or less
1420Assets Requiring 85% Funding (RSF 85%)
1421 Unencumbered loans to retail customers and small business customers (as defined in LCR) having remaining maturity of less than 1 year (other than those qualifying for 65% RSF)
1422Assets Requiring 100% Funding (RSF 100%)
1423 All other assets not included in the preceeding categories
1424Liquidity Planning - allows managers to make important borrowing priority decisions before liquidity problems arise
1425 Lowers cost of funds by determining optimal funding mix
1426 Minimizes amount of excess reserves a bank needs to hold
1427 Liquidity plan components
1428 Delineation of managerial responsibilities
1429 List of fund providers most likely to withdraw funds and a pattern of fund withdrawals
1430 Identify size of potential deposit and fund withdrawals over various time horizons
1431 Internal limits on separate subsidiaries and branches' borrowing as well as acceptable risk premiums to pay in each market
1432Liquidity Risk
1433 Major liquidity problems arise if deposit drains are abnormally large and unexpected
1434 Abnormal deposit drains can occur because:
1435 Concerns about bank's solvency
1436 Failure of another bank (contagion effect)
1437 Sudden changes in investors' preferences regarding holding nonbank financial assets relative to bank deposits
1438 Bank run - sudden an unexpected increase in deposit withdrawals from a bank
1439IndyMac 08
1440 Schmuer's letters warning of problems at bank became public
1441 Next 11 days depositors withdrew 1.3 billion from Indymac
1442 Schmuer was right; bank was in trouble due to mortgage holdings
1443 Problems in credit spilled over into liquidity problems when investors lost confidence in bank
1444Liquidity Risk
1445 Demand deposits are first-come, first serve contracts
1446 Incentives for depositors to withdraw funds at first sign of trouble creates fundamental instability in banking system
1447 Bank panic - systematic or contagious run on deposits of banking industry as a whole
1448 Regulatory mechanisms in place to ease bank liquidity problems and to deter bank runs/panics
1449 FDIC (250,000 since 08/09 financial crisis)
1450 Discount window
1451Deposit Insurance
1452 Deposit insurance was first introduced in US in 1933 with coverage up to $2500
1453 Coverage increased to $100,000 in 1980
1454 2011 FDIC increases every year based on Consumer Price Index CPI
1455 FDI reform act 2005 increased from $100000 to $250,000
1456 Individuals can achieve many times the 250,000 limit by creatively structuring deposits on multiple banks
1457 FDIC uses risk-based deposit insurance to evaluate and assign deposit insurance programs
1458 Some states operate guaranteed funds to insure investments made with insurance firms, but they are not federally backed
1459Discount Window
1460 Federal Reserve provides "Discount Window" lending facility
1461 Historically borrowing rate was below market rates and borrowing was restricted
1462 Response to liquidity problem in 07/08, Fed announced it would lend $200 billion to both commercial and investment banks through Primary Dealer Credit Facility PDCF
1463 New federal borrowing programs emerged over succeeding months providing funding to money market mutual funds, commercial paper, insurance companies, and others
1464 Fed also lowered interest rates to near 0 and reduced spread between discount rate and Fed Funds rate
1465Liquidity Risk and Insurance Companies
1466 Life insurance companies hold cash reserves and other liquid assets
1467 Meets policy payments
1468 Meet cancellation (surrender) payments
1469 Surrender value of a life insurance policy is amount insurance policyholder receives when cashing in policy early
1470 Fund working capital needs (which can be unpredictable)
1471 Property-casualty P&C insurance companies
1472 Claims against P&C insurers are hard to predict
1473 Thus P&C insurance companies have a greater need for liquidity than life insurance companies
1474 Mutual funds MFs can be subject to dramatic liquidity if investors become nervous about true value of fund's assets
1475 However way MFs are valued reduces incentive of fund shareholders to engage in bank- like runs on any given day
1476 assets are distributed pro-rata basis (rather than first-come first serve)
1477 losses are incurred to shareholders on a proportional basis
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1525Chapter 11 - Commercial Banks Industry Overview
1526
1527Commercial Banks are largest group of financial institutions in terms of total assets
1528 Major assets are loans
1529 Major liabilitites are federally insured deposits - they are considered depository institutions
1530 Perform services essential to US financial markets
1531 Play key role in transmission of monetary policy
1532 provide payment services
1533 provide maturity intermediation
1534 Banks are regulated to protect against distruptions to the services they perform and to protect government insured deposits
1535Commercial Bank Assets
1536 Loans generate the most revenue for banks
1537 Commercial and industrial loans are declining because of nonbank substitutes (commercial paper)
1538 Mortgages have increased in importance over long term
1539 Investment securities generate revenue and provide banks with liquidity
1540 Cash assets are held to meet reserve requirements and to provide liquidity
1541 Other assets include premises and equipment, other real estate owned, etc
1542 Four main categories of assets are
1543 Cash, investments, loans, and other assets
1544 Total loans fell as result of financial crisis, safe investments and cash rose
1545 Real estate loans are about 50.5% of loans
1546 Commercial banks face unique risks because of their asset structure
1547 Credit(default) risk is risk that loans are not repaid
1548 liquidity risk - risk that depositors will demand cash than banks can immediately provide
1549 interest rate risk- risk that interest rate changes erode profitability or net worth
1550 Credit/liquidity/interest risk contribute to a commercial bank's level of insolvency risk
1551Commercial Bank Liabilities
1552 Transaction accounts are sum of noninterest-bearing demand deposits and interest-baring checking accounts
1553 Transaction accounts are about 17.58% of deposits
1554 Checkable interest-bearing deposit accounts are called negotiatble order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts
1555 Household (retail) savings/time deposits have declined in recent years because of MMMFs
1556 Passbook savings accounts
1557 Real time deposits
1558 Large time deposits - negotiable CDs are fixed-maturity interest-bearing deposits with face values of $100,000 or more that can be resold in secondary market
1559 Non-deposit liabilities
1560 Fed funds purchased
1561 Repos
1562 Notes and Bonds
1563Commercial Bank Equity
1564 Minimum levels of equity capital are required by regulators to act as a buffer against losses
1565 common and preferred stock
1566 surplus or additional paid-in capital
1567 retained earnings
1568Liabilities & Equity
1569 Deposits are the main source of funds
1570 Equity has increased since financial crisis and is now over 11% of assets
1571 TARP program resulted in capital injections into banks of $386 billion
1572Off-balance-sheet activities
1573 Commercial banks engage in many fee-related activities that are conducted off the balance sheet
1574 Guarantees such as letters of credit
1575 Future commitments to lend
1576 Derivative transactions (futures, forwards, options, and swaps)
1577 Off-balance-sheet assets
1578 When an event occurs, this item moves onto the asset side of the balance sheet or income is realized on the income statement
1579 Off-balance sheet liabilities
1580 When an event occurs, this item moves onto the liabilility side of the balance sheet or an expense is realized on the income statement
1581Commercial Banks
1582 Reigle-Neal Act 1994 allowed nationwide branch networks to evolve
1583 nearly 15000 banks with some 60000 branches in 84
1584 6000 banks with some 83000 branches in 2013
1585 Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999
1586 Gave commercial banks full authority enter investment banking and insurance business
1587 Industrial loan corporations (ILCs) are considered "non-bank" banks
1588 Retail banking is consumer oriented
1589 Residential and consumer loans are funded by accepting small deposits
1590 Community banks specialize in retail banking
1591 Wholesale banking is business oriented
1592 Commercial and industrial loans are often funded with purchased funds
1593 Regional or superregional banks engage complete array of wholesale banking activities
1594 Money center banks rely heavily on nondeposit or borrowed sources of funds, often borrowed in the fed funds market
1595Commercial Banks Performance Measures
1596 Interest rate spread = difference between lending and deposit rates
1597 Net interest margin =(interest income - interest expense) / earning assets
1598 Net non-interest margin = (non interest income - non interest expense ) / earning assets
1599 Net charge-offs is percent of loans written off as uncollectable
1600 Return on assets = net income / assets
1601 Return on equity = net income / equity
1602Commercial Bank Size and Performance
1603 Because larger banks generally lend to larger corporations, with more funding options larger banks often are required to have lower interest rate spreads and net interest margins than those of smaller banks
1604 Large banks pay higher salaries and invest more in buildings and premises than small banks
1605 Large banks tend to diversify operations and generate more noninterest income than smallbanks
1606 1.5% of the largest banks control about 83% of industry assets
1607Industry Performance
1608 US commercial banks flourished during economic expansion of 90s
1609 Economic downturn of early 2000s caused performance to deteriorate slightly
1610 By 03 ROA and ROE reached all time highs
1611 In Q4 06 mortgage delinquencies (subprime mainly) surged
1612 Losses from falling subprime mortgage values caused Q4 07 net income to hit 16-year low
1613 In 08 ROA was poor 0.13%, 09 0.09%, before fixing itself 2010 0.60%
1614 ROE 1.33% 08, 0.85% 09, 5.44% 2010
1615 Problem was not interest spreads as the net interest margin remained high (3.87% 2010)
1616 Problem remained in credit losses
1617 Long run of low interest rates has allowed banks to bank good profits unrelated to credit losses
1618 Growth in non-interest income, low levels of non-interest expense, and low securities losses all contributed to strong profitability in 2013
1619 Number of bank failures and 'problem banks' continues to fall
1620Regulators
1621 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FDIC insures deposits of commercial banks
1622 US has a dual banking system - banks can be either nationally or state-chartered
1623 Office of Comptroller of Currency OCC charters and regulates national banks
1624 State agencies charter and regulate state banks
1625 Federal Reserve System FRS has regulatory power over nationally chartered banks and their holding companies and state banks that opt in to the Federal Reserve System
1626 holding company is a parent company that owns controlling interest in subsidiary bank or other FI
1627International Commercial Banking
1628 Advantages of International Expansion
1629 Risk diversification
1630 Economies of scale
1631 distribute new product innovations internationally
1632 opportunity to find cheapest and most available sources of funds
1633 service the needs of domestic multinational corporations
1634 regulatory avoidance
1635 Disadvantages of international expansion
1636 Information and monitoring costs are generally higher in foreign markets
1637 foreign assets may be subject to nationalization or expropriation by host country govts
1638 Fixed costs of establishing foreign organizations may be extremely high
1639Global Banking Performance
1640 Banks in most regions of the world posted strong performance in early/mid 2000s but suffered from the financial crisis in the US and later European debt crisis
1641 Large banks in UK, ireland, netherlands, switzerland, iceland, spain recorded annual losses during crisis
1642 Led to sovereign debt problems in Europe with continued subpar growth in Europe
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1726Chapter 12 Commercial Banks' Financial Statements and Analysis
1727
1728CAMELS
1729 Regulators use CAMELS ratings to evaluate safety and soundness of banks
1730 CAMELS ratings rely heavily on financial statement data
1731 Components
1732 Capital Adequacy
1733 Risk-based capital requirements now used. Regulators also evaluate bank's loss experience, amount of problem assets in relation to capital, and institution's access to capital
1734 Asset Quality
1735 Banks are required to classify assets according to soundness and to allocate loss reserves based on their evaluation of the quality of their assets
1736 Management Quality
1737 Technical competence of management, their history of compliance, adequacy of internal controls, compensation and experience
1738 Earnings Quality
1739 Stability and growth rate of earnings, peer group comparisons of profitability and interest rate exposure
1740 Liquidity
1741 Turnover rates of the bank's sources of funds, particular deposit turnover
1742 % Core deposits vs "hot money" sources, the amount of loan commitments, and volume of liquid assets held by the bank
1743 Sensitivity to market risk
1744 Exposure of earnings and capital to changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and commodity or equity prices
1745
1746 CAMELS ratings ranging from 1-5
1747 Composite 1 - banks are basically sound in every aspect
1748 Composite 2 - banks are fundamentally sound but may have modest weaknesses correctable in the normal course of business
1749 Composite 3 - banks exhibit financial, operational, or compliance weakness ranging from moderately severe to unsatisfactory
1750 Composite 4 - banks have an immoderate volume of serious financial weakness or a combination of other conditions that are unsatisfactory
1751 Composite 5 - banks have extremely high immediate or near-term probability of failure
1752Financial Statements
1753 Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council FFIEC - prescribes uniform principals, standards, and report forms for depository instituions
1754 balance sheets amd income statements are reported on Report of Conditions
1755 commercial banks report contigent assets and liabilities on OBS-reports
1756 Retail banks focus business activities on consumer banking relationships
1757 Wholesale banks focus business activities on commercial banking relationships
1758Commercial Bank Assets
1759 Cash and balances due from other depository institutions
1760 Investment securities
1761 short-term securities (treasury bills and fed funds sold)
1762 long-term securities (treasury bonds, munis, MBSs)
1763 Loans
1764 commercial and industrial
1765 real estate
1766 consumer
1767 other loans
1768 Provision for loan losses PLL
1769 PLL is a deduction from current earnings made by management to offset loans that management believes will go bad in the upcoming quarter
1770 PLL was 19.8% of net income in 2013
1771 Net charge offs NCOs
1772 Actual write-offs of loans
1773 34.6% of net income in 2013
1774 Unearned Income
1775 income that the bank has received on a loan but has not yet earned nor recorded as income on the income statement
1776 Allowance for loan and lease losses
1777 Management's estimate of total amount of loans that will not be repaid
1778 Other assets (fixed assets, goodwill, etc)
1779Commercial Bank Liabilities
1780 Core deposits
1781 Demand deposits
1782 negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts
1783 money market deposit accounts (MMDAs)
1784 other savings deposits
1785 retail certificates of deposits
1786 Other deposits
1787 wholesale certificates of deposits
1788 negotiable instruments traded in secondary markets
1789 brokered deposits
1790 Non-deposit liabilities
1791 borrowed funds
1792 fed funds purchased and repos
1793 other borrowed funds (bankers acceptances, commercial paper, discount window)
1794 subordinated notes and debentures
1795 other liabilities
1796Commercial Bank Equity
1797 Equity
1798 Preferred and common stock
1799 Surplus or additional paid in capital
1800 Retained earnings
1801Off-Balance-Sheet Items
1802 Off balance sheet items are contingent assets and liabilities that may affect a commercial bank's balance sheet and/or income statement
1803 Loan commitments
1804 Up-front fees are charged for making funds available
1805 Commitment fees are charged on the unused portion of a loan commitment
1806 Letters of Credit
1807 commercial letters of credit
1808 standby letters of credit
1809 Loans Sold
1810 Loans can be sold or without recourse
1811 Derivative contracts
1812 Futures, forwards, swaps, and options
1813Income Statement
1814 Net interest income = interest income - interest expense
1815 Net noninterest income = noninterst income - noninterest expense
1816 Income before taxes and extraordinary items EBTEI
1817 Net interest income - provision for loan loses + net interest income
1818 Net income = EBTEI - income taxes - extraordinary loans
1819 Directly relationship between income statement and balance sheet of commercial banks
1820 (ADD FORMULA FROM SLIDE 15)
1821Financial Statement Analysis
1822 Financial statement analysis is based on accounting ratios
1823 Time series analysis is the analysis of financial statements over a period of time
1824 Cross-sectional analysis is the analysis of financial statements comparing one firm with others
1825 Uniform Bank Performance Report UBPR maintained by FFIEC allows banks to observe competitor financial statements
1826 Most financial statement analyses is a combination of time series and cross-sectional analyses
1827Return on Equity (ROE) Framework (Dupont Analysis)
1828 Return on Equity analysis begins with ROE and then breaks it down into its components
1829 ROE measures overall profitability of the bank per dollar of equity
1830 ROE = net income / total equity capital
1831 ROE can be broken down into following components
1832 ROE= Net Income * Total Assets = ROA x EM
1833 Total Assets Total Equity Capital
1834 Return on Assets ROA measures profit generated relative to bank's assets
1835 Equity Multiplier EM measures extent to which assets are funded with equity relative to debt
1836 measure of leverage
1837 ROA can also be broken down into two components
1838 ROA= Net Income * Total Operating Income= PM x AU
1839 Total Operating Income Total Equity Capital
1840 Profit Margin PM measures ability to pay expenses and generate net income from interest and noninterest income is composed of
1841 Interest expense ratio
1842 Provision for loan loss ratio
1843 Noninterest expense ratio
1844 Tax ratio
1845 Asset Utilization (AU) measures the amount of interest and noninterest income generated per dollar of total assets and is composed of
1846 Interest income ratio
1847 Noninterest income ratio
1848Other Ratios
1849 Net interest margin NIM measures net return on bank's earning assets
1850 NIM = Net Interest Income = Investment Income - Interest Expense
1851 Earning Assets Investment Securities + net loans and losses
1852 The Spread measures the difference between the average yield on earning assets and average cost on interest bearing liabilities
1853 Spread = Interest Income Interest Expense
1854 Earning Assets Interest - bearing liabilities
1855 Overhead efficiency measures a bank's ability to generate noninterest income to cover noninterest expenses
1856 = noninterest income / noninterest expense
1857 Many additional ratios are commonly used to analyze commercial banks by breaking down the components of ROE even further (table 12-6 and 12-7)
1858Application of ROE Analysis
1859 Compare Heartland Bank and Trust HBT with Bank of America BOA
1860 HBT
1861 Profitable and efficient retail bank
1862 Invests mainly in real estate loans
1863 Uses more retail deposits to fund its assets
1864 Holds relatively more equity capital than BOA
1865 BOA
1866 Both retail and wholesale bank
1867 Has a relatively more diversified portfolio than HBT
1868 Uses broader array of deposits + more purchased funds (fewer core deposits) than HBT
1869 Offers a broad spectrum of financial services
1870 HBT has a substantially higher ROE and ROE (highly leveraged, larger equity multiplier)
1871 HBT higher ROA is driven by substantially higher profit margin PM & component ratios
1872 Even though income to assets ratio is higher at HBT, the AU ratio is lower at HBT because of substantially lower level of noninterest income to total assets ratio as comparable to BOA
1873Impact of Market Niche and Size
1874 Retail and Wholesale commercial banks operate in different market niches that should be noted when performing financial statement analyses
1875 Large banks have greater access to purchased funds and usually maintain more liquid assets
1876 Large banks typically carry lower amounts of equity
1877 At times, the ROA of large banks is less than for small banks because large banks operate in more competitive markets
1878 Large Banks have higher salary expense% and typically have higher percentage cost for premises
1879 Large banks have more noninterest income than smaller banks but also tend to have more noninterest expense
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1911
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1915
1916
1917
1918FORMULAS
1919CHAPTER 19
1920Net Interest Margin (if change, replace variables in places needed)
1921= [(Assets earning average%-Liabilities paying%)*fixed earning assets] / fixed earning assets
1922Interest received in foreign currency = [foreign currency assets * interest on foreign asset]
1923Interest expense in foreign currency = [foreign currency liabilities * interest on foreign liabilities]
1924Net Interest Margin in a specific currency
1925= Interest received in foreign currency - Interest expense in foreign currency
1926Before Devaluation
1927 Interest Received in dollars = Interest received in foreign currency / spot rate of foreign/dollars
1928 Interest expense in dollars = interest expense in foreign currency / spot rate of foreign/dollars
1929 Net interest margin in dollars = Interest received in dollars - Interest expense in dollars
1930After devaluation (recalculate using end of yr spot rate) (Change in NIM = difference between before and after)
1931Net Assets = Assets - Liabilities
1932 If in foreign currency, divde assets and liabilities by current spot rate
1933Recalculate after devaluation, calculate before and after and find difference for change in Net assets
1934
1935Original dollar amount lent = Foreign amount loaned / initial exchange rate
1936Borrower repayment foreign amount = Foreign amount loaned * (1+fixed interest rate)
1937Converted back to dollar = Borrower Repayment foreign amount / later exchange rate
1938Bank dollar rate of return on a loan
1939 = (Converted back to dollar amount - original dollar amount lent) / original dollar lent
1940
1941Interest Income = Bond Assets * Bond Coupon Rate
1942Interest Expense = CD Liabilities * CD Interest Rate
1943Net Interest Income = Interest Income - Interest Expense
1944New CD Rate = Current CD Rate + [(Next Year Market Interest Rate Inc/100)/100]
1945Recalculate interest expense, get new net interest income (change is refinancing risk)
1946Bond Value
1947=-PV(BondCouponRate+(New BasisPoints/100)/100;BondMaturityYears-1;Interest Income;BondAssets)
1948Loss or Gain in market value of bond = Bond Assets - Bond value
1949Market value of equity = Equity - LossorGain in MV of Bond
1950
1951
1952Chapter 20
1953(Pass/Fail)
1954Gross Debt Service Ratio (25-30) = (Monthly mortgage payments*12 + property taxes) / gross income
1955Total Debt Service Ratio (35-40) = (Sum of all annual payments) / annual gross income
1956 Monthly mortgage payments may need to be made annual
1957
1958CF Operations +/- CF Investing +/- CF Financing = Change in Cash
1959CF Operating = Net Income + Interest Expense + Depreciation + Change AR* + Change Inventory + Change in Acc wages and taxes + Change in AP
1960CF Investing = Change in Gross Fixed Assets
1961CF Financing = Interest Expense* + Increase in Notes Payable + Increase in Long Term Debt + Increase in common stock + Pay of common stock dividends*
1962
1963EBIT = Sales - Costs - Depreciation EBT = EBIT - Interest +/- Expense
1964Net Income = EBT - Taxes Change RE = Net Income - Dividends
1965
1966Liquidity Ratios
1967 Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1968 Quick Ratio (acid test) = (Cash + Cash Equivalents + Receivables) / Current liabilities
1969Asset Management ratios
1970 Days sales in receivables = (receiveables * 365) / Credit sales
1971 Days in inventory = (inventory * 365) / COGS
1972 Sales to Working Capital = Sales / (Current assets - current liabilities)
1973 Sales to fixed assets = Sales / Fixed Assets
1974 Asset turnover = Sales / Total Assets
1975Debt (long term solvency) ratios
1976 Debt to asset (total debt ratio) = Total Liabilities / Total assets
1977 Times Interest Earned = EBIT / Interest Expense
1978 Cash flow to debt ratio = (EBIT + Depreciation) / Debt
1979Profitability ratios
1980 Gross margin = gross profit / sales
1981 Operating profit margin = operating profit / sales
1982 Net profit margin = Earnings After Taxes / Sales
1983 Return on assets = EAT / Average total assets
1984 Return on equity = EAT / Total Equity
1985 Dividend Payout = Dividends / EAT
1986
1987Altman's Z Score = Z= 1.2X1+ 1.4X2+ 3.3X3+ 0.6X4+ 1.0X5
1988where X1= working capital ÷ total assets X2= retained earnings ÷ total assets
1989X3= earnings before interest and taxes ÷ total asset
1990X4= market value of equity ÷ book value of long-term debt X5= sales ÷ total assets
1991<1.81 = fail, >2.91, great, in between needs to be evaluated
1992
1993Return on Assets ROA approach 1 + k = 1 + f + (BR) + m
1994 1- b (1-RR)
1995f= the loan origination fee b= the compensating balance requirement
1996RR= the reserve requirement ratio BR= the base lending rate
1997m= the credit risk premium on the loan
1998
1999Risk-adjusted return on assets RAROC model
2000 RAROC = One year income on a loan / loan(asset) risk or value at risk
2001The RAROC is compared vis-à -vis the lender’s tax-adjusted return on equity (ROE)
2002o if RAROC > ROE, make the loan
2003o if RAROC < ROE, either adjust the loan such that RAROC > ROE or decline the loan
2004
2005True Cost = Stated Rate / (1 - Comp balance)
2006
2007Expected Portfolio Return
2008 ENi = XiRi
2009Expected Portfolio Variance
2010O2p = Eni X2iO2i + EniEji XiXjOij
2011
2012GDS - gross debt service
2013Equal to total accomodation expenses (mortgage, lease, condominium, management fees, real estate taxes, etc) divided by gross income
2014 Acceptable threshold generally around 25%-30% max
2015TDS - Total debt service
2016Equal to the total accommodation expenses plus all other debt service payments divided by gross income
2017 Acceptable threshold generally set around 35%-40% max
2018
2019Chapter 17
2020Net Asset Value = [MF's (Stocks+ bonds+ Cash +other assets) - MFliabilities ] /#shares outstanding
2021
2022Effect of costs on MF Returns (FORMULA)
2023 Amount initially invested AII= $amount placed - (%load * $amount placed)
2024 Amount after gross return AAGR = AII * (1+ gross return%)
2025 Average asset value for year AAVFY = (AAGR + AII) / 2
2026 Fees = AAVFY * annual expense%
2027 Ending amount after fees EAAF = AAGR - Fees
2028 Net Rate of return (first year) = (EAAF - $amount placed) - 1
2029
2030Profit or Loss on Sale = Sell price - Buy Price
2031Total Income = Profit/Loss on Sale + Dividend + CG Dist
2032Net Return = Total Income - Fee
2033ROI = Net Return / Buy Price
2034
2035Total Value = Closing Price of Stock * # of Shares of that stock outstanding
2036NAV = Total Value / Total Shares outstanding
2037If new closing prices arise, recalculate Total Value and NAV in same fashion
2038New NAV - Old NAV = change in NAV
2039
2040Unreal gain = end of year NAV - beginning of year NAV
2041ROI = (Unreal gain + Income distributions + CG distirbutions) / NAV beginning of year
2042Cash flows = Income distributions + CG distributions
2043Annual ROI (IRR) = =IRR(-NAV beginning of year + sum of cash flows)
2044Average ROI = AVG of all ROIs in problem
2045
2046Load = Load% * Investment Net Investment = Investment - Load
2047Gain = Return% * Net Investment Net Gain = Gain - Load
2048ROI = Gain / Investment Redemption Fee = Redemption Fee% * (Investment + Gain)
2049Net Gain = Gain - Redemption Fee
2050
2051Chapter 21
2052Liquidity Index
2053Sumof[(Wi)(Pi/Pi*)]
2054wi= the percent of each asset i in the FI’s portfolio Pi = the price it gets if an FI liquidates asseti today
2055Pi*= the price it gets if an FI liquidates asset i under normal market conditions
2056
2057Financing Gap Funding = -Liquid Assets + Borrowed Funds
2058Financing Requirement = Financing Gap + Liquid Assets
2059
2060Total Assets = Fed deposit + Tbills + Mortgage loans
2061Index = (Fed Deposit/Total Assets*Fed Deposit ST Liq Value%)+(T Bills/Total Assets*T bills St liq value%)+(Mortage loans/total assets*mortgage loan st liq value%)
2062
2063Assets = Cash + Fed Deposits + Tbonds, marketable securities, GNMA bonds, AA- corp loans, mortgages, premises
2064L&E = stable retail deposits, less stable deposits, CD maturity 6 months, unsecured wholesale funding
2065Level 1 assets have no cap
2066Level 2 Assets (dont matter?) Level 2 cap at 40% of level 1
2067Highly Liquid assets = Level 1 + Level 2 cap at 40% of level 1
2068Potential Cash outflows (stable, less stable, cds maturing correct) + (unsecured stable 5%, less stable 10%, nonfinancial corporates 75%)
2069Net Potential cash outflows over next 30 days = Potential cash outflows - cash inflows over next 30 days
2070
2071For Required stable funding factor, times them by their required factors and make sure both sides add up properly
2072
2073Chapter 11
2074Interest rate spread = Lending Rate - Deposit Rate
2075Net Interest Margin = (Interest income - Interest Expense) / earning assets
2076Net non-interest margin = (noninterest income - non interest expense) / earning assets
2077Net charge offs = % of loans that are uncollectable
2078Return on assets = Net income / assets
2079Return on equity = net income / equity
2080
2081Chapter 12
2082Income before taxes and extraordinary items (EBTEI)
2083 =Net interest income - Provision for loan losses + Net noninterest income
2084Net income = EBTEI - Income taxes - extraordinary items
2085
2086Direct relationship between income statement and balance sheet of commercial banks
2087NI = Σ rn An - Σ rm Lm - P + NII - NIE - T
2088NI= net income An= dollar value of the bank’s nth asset
2089Lm= dollar value of the bank’s mth liability rn= rate earned on the bank’s nth asset
2090rm=rate paid on the bank’s mth liability P = provision for loan losses
2091NII = non-interest income earned, including income from OBS activities
2092NIE = non-interest expenses T=taxes and extraordinary items
2093N= number of assets the bank holds M = number of liabilities the bank holds
2094
2095ROE can be broken down into following components
2096 ROE= Net Income * Total Assets = ROA x EM
2097 Total Assets Total Equity Capital
2098ROE = NI / Equity NI = ROE*Equity NI Taxes = Tax rate * NI T = NI Taxes / (1 - Tax rate)
2099Interest Rev - Int Exp = Net Int Inc Net Int Inc - PLL(P) + NNII@ = IBT IBT - Tax = NI
2100
2101Debt Ratio = Total Debt / TA TA = Total Debt / Debt Ratio TE = TA - Total Debt
2102ROE = Net Income / TE
2103
2104ROA can also be broken down into two components
2105 ROA= Net Income * Total Operating Income = PM x AU
2106 Total Operating Income Total Equity Capital
2107 ROA = NI / Total Assets
2108Assets = Cash + Dep FI + Invest + FF Sold + Loans - Res LL + Premises
2109L&E = DDA + STD + Jumbo CD + FF Purch + Equity
2110Earning assets = Invest + FF Sold + Loans - Res LL Net Income = Int Income-Int Exp-PLL+NII-NIE-Taxes
2111Operating Income = Interest Income + NII AU = Operating Income / Total Assets
2112Spread = Interest Income/Earn Assets-Int Exp/(STD+JumboCD+FFPurch)
2113Net Interest Margin = (Int Income - Int Exp) / Earn Assets EM = Total assets / Equity
2114PM = Net Income / Operating Income IE Ratio = Interest Expense / Operating Income
2115PLL Ratio = PLL / Operating Income NIE Ratio = NIE/Operating Income
2116Tax Ratio = Taxes / Operating Income OhE = NII / NIE
2117
2118Net interest margin NIM measures net return on bank's earning assets
2119 NIM = Net Interest Income = Investment Income - Interest Expense
2120 Earning Assets Investment Securities + net loans and losses
2121The Spread measures the difference between the average yield on earning assets and average cost on interest bearing liabilities
2122 Spread = Interest Income Interest Expense
2123 Earning Assets Interest - bearing liabilities
2124Overhead efficiency = noninterest income / noninterest expense
2125
2126Chapter 22 – Managing Interest Rate Risk and Insolvency Risk on the Balance Sheet
2127Interest Rate Risk
2128 Asset transformation function performed by FIs often exposes them to interest rate risk
2129 FIs use two main methods to measure interest rate exposure
2130 Repricing aka funding gap model- examines impact of interest rate changes on net interest income NII
2131Duration model – examines impact of interest rate changes on the overall market value of an FI and thus on net worth
2132 Modern development
2133 The Fed Reserve monetary policy is most direct influence on level and movement of short term interest rates
2134 Changes in the Fed’s target Fed Funds rate affect all interest rates throughout the economy
2135 Expansionary monetary policy involves decreases in target fed rate
2136 Contractionary monetary policy involves increases in target fed funds rate
2137Repricing Model
2138 Funding gap is the difference between
2139 Those assets whose interest rates will be repriced over some future period AND
2140 Liabilities whose interest rates will be repriced over some future period
2141 Used by most FIs
2142 Larger and more sophisticated FIs moving towards duration gap
2143 Quarterly reporting of commercial bank assets and liabilities detailed by repricing (maturity) bucket (or bin)
2144 One day
2145 1+ day to 3 months
2146 3+ months to 6 months
2147 6+ months to 12 months
2148 1+ year to 5 years
2149 5+ years
2150Gap in each bucket or bin is measured as the difference between rate-sensitive assets (RSAs) and rate-sensitive liabilities (RSL)
2151 Rate-sensitivity measures the time to repricing of an asset or liability
2152Cumulative gap CGAP is the sum of the individual maturity bucket gaps
2153Cumulative gap effect is the relation between changes in interest rates and changes in net interest income
2154 Change in NII for any given bucket is
2155 â–³Nii = (GAP) â–³Ri = (RSAi-RSLi) â–³Ri
2156GAP = dollar size of the gap between the book value of rate-sensitive assets and rate-sensitive liabilities in maturity bucket i
2157â–³Ri = the change in level of interest rates impacting assets and liabilities in the ith maturity bucket
2158 Common cumulative gap of interest to commercial bank managers is the one-year repricing gap estimate
2159 â–³NII 0 (1yrRSA-1yrRSL) â–³Ri
2160Where â–³Nii is the cumulative change in net interest income from all rate-sensitive assets and liabilities that are repriced with a year given a change in interest rates â–³Ri
2161Spread effect is the effect that a change in the spread between rates on RSAs and RSLs has on net interest income as interest rates change
2162 △NIIi – (RSAi x △Rrsa) – (RSLi x △Rrsl)
2163For a positive repricing gap, interest rates and profitability move in the same direction
2164For a negative repricing gap, interest rates and profitability move in the opposite direction
2165Repricing model has some major weaknesses
2166 RPM measures only short-term profit changes, not shareholder wealth changes
2167 Maturity buckets are arbitrarily chosen
2168 All assets and liabilities that mature within the maturity bucket considered equally rate-sensitive
2169 Some accounts such as demand deposits are not easily classified
2170 RPM ignores runoffs
2171 Receipts of cash on FRA or payments due on FRLs that occur during the maturity bucket period
2172 This cash must be reinvested by the intermediary and is rate-sensitive
2173 Ignores prepayments
2174 Ignores cash flows generated from OBS activities
2175Duration Model
2176 Duration measures the interest rate sensitivity of an asset or liability’s value to small changes in interest rates
2177 D = % â–³ in the market value of a security / [â–³R / (1+R)]
2178 Duration gap is a measure of overall interest rate risk exposure for an FI
2179 To find duration of the total portfolio of assets (Da) or liabilities (Dl) for a FI
2180 First determine the duration of each asset (or liability) in the portfolio
2181 Then calculate the market value weighted average of the duration of assets or liabilities in the portfolio
2182 Duration (Dur) for a fixed-income security that pays interest annually can be written as
2183 INSERT 3-21 FORMULA HERE
2184 Duration and coupon interest – the higher the coupon payment, the lower the bond duration
2185 Duration and yield to maturity – the higher the yield to maturity, the lower the bond duration
2186 Duration and maturity – duration increases with maturity but at a decreasing rate
2187 Change in market value of the asset portfolio for a change in the interest rates is
2188 â–³A = A x (-Da) x (â–³R / (1+r))
2189 Similarly, the change in the market value of the liability portfolio for a change in the interest rates is:
2190 â–³L = L x (-Dl) x (â–³R / (1+r))
2191Finally, the change in the market value of equity of an FI given a change in the interest rates is determined from a basic balance sheet equation
2192 A = L + E -> â–³A = â–³L + â–³E
2193By substituting and rearranging, the change in net worth is given as
2194 △E = - (Da – kDl) x A x (△R / (1+r))
2195 Where k is L/A a measure of the FI’s leverage
2196Effect of interest rate changes on the market value of equity or net worth of an FI breaks down to three effects
2197 Leveraged adjusted duration gap (Da – kDl)
2198 Measured in years
2199 Reflects duration mismatch on an FI’s balance sheet
2200 Larger the gap, the more exposed the FI to interest rate risk
2201 Size of the FI
2202 Size of the interest rate shock
2203Difficulties in applying the duration model to real-world FI balance sheets
2204Duration matching (immunization) can be costly as restructuring balance sheet is time consuming, costly, and generally not desirable
2205Immunization is a dynamic problem
2206 Duration of assets and liabilities change as they approach maturity
2207 Rate at which duration of assets and liabilities change may not be the same
2208 Duration is not accurate for large interest rates changes unless convexity is modeled into the measure
2209 Convexity is the degree of curvature of the price-yield curve around some interest rate level
2210Insolvency Risk
2211 To ensure survival, an FI manager must protect against risk of insolvency
2212 Primary protection against the risk of insolvency is equity capital
2213 Capital is a source of funds
2214Capital is a necessary requirement for growth under existing minimum capital-to-asset ratios set by regulators
2215 Managers prefer low levels of capital in order to generate higher return on equity ROE
2216 Moral hazard problem exacerbates this tendency
2217 Result is an increased likelihood of insolvency
2218 Capital Purchase Problem CPP was part of TARP funding in 08-09
2219 Treasury purchased over $200 billion of senior preferred equity under the program
2220 The CPP was designed to help FIs increase their capital with the aim of increasing lending to the general public
2221Lending fell in 08-10, so in this sense the program was a failure, although assumed lending would have fallen further without it and more failures may have occurred
2222 Economic meaning of capital is net worth
2223Net worth is equal to difference between the market value MV of an FI’s assets and market value of it’s liabilities
2224Market value or mark-to-market value basis uses balance sheet values that reflect current rather than historical prices
2225 Regulatory and account-defined capital is based in whole or in part on historical or book values BV
2226 Market value of capital and credit risk
2227 Decreases in current and expected future cash flows on loans lowers the MV of an FI’s assets
2228 Decreases in the MV of assets are directly charged against the equity owners capital or net worth
2229 Liability holders are only hurt when asset losses exceed equity capital levels
2230Thus, equity capital acts as “insurance†protecting liability holders (and guarantors such as FDIC) against insolvency risk
2231 Market value of capital and interest rate risk
2232Rising interest rates decrease the value of an FI’s assets more than the value of the FI’s liabilities when duration gap of the FI’s balance sheet is positive
2233Losses are first charged against equity capital
2234 Book value of equity capital is the difference between BV of assets and BV of liabilities
2235BV of equity is usually composed of par value of equity shares, the surplus value of equity shares, and retained earnings
2236BV of equity does not equal market value of equity
2237Managers can manipulate BV of equity by
2238 Using discretion when timing recognition of loan losses
2239 Selectively selling assets to inflate reported earnings (and this capital)
2240 Interest rate changes have no impact on book values of assets and liabilities
2241 FIs can be solvent from a BV perspective, but massively insolvent from an economic perspective
2242 Degree to which the BV of equity deviates from the MV of equity depends on
2243 Interest rate volatility
2244 Examination and enforcement
2245 Loan trading
2246 Discrepancy between the MV and BV of equity is measured by the market-to-book ratio
2247 Arguments against using market value account include
2248Difficult to implement
2249 Especially for small FIs that are not publicly traded
2250 Introduces variability into reported earnings
2251FIs claim they may be less willing to accept longer-term asset exposures if they must be continually marked-to-market
2252Industry argues the lack of liquidity in recent crisis led to unrealistically low market values of assets and marking to market imposed excessive losses on institutions
2253Consequently, Financial Accounting Standards Board FASB allows management to rely on internal estimates of cash flows to estimate fair value
2254 As of April 09, FASB allows DIs to not recognize losses in earnings and regulatory capital on accounts that are
2255 Designated as held for investment rather than sale
2256 Temporarily impaired in value due to market conditions rather than underlying credit deterioration
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2302Chapter 23 – Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet with Derivative Securities
2303Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet
2304 Managers are increasingly turning to OBS instruments such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps to hedge the risks their financial institutions FIs face
2305 Interest rate risk
2306 Foreign Exchange Risk
2307 Credit risk
2308 FIs also generate free income from derivative securities transactions
2309 Spot contract is an agreement to transact involving the immediate exchange of assets and funds
2310 Forward Contract is a negotiated agreement to transact at a point in the future with the terms of the deal set today
2311 Any amount can be negotiated
2312 Not generally liquid, so each party must perform
2313 Counterparty default risk can be significant
2314 Futures contract is an exchange-traded agreement to transact involving the future exchange of a set amount of assets for a price that is fixed today
2315 Futures are liquid, most traders close their position before the delivery date so the underlying transaction may never take place
2316 Futures contracts are marked-to-market daily, the traders gains and losses on outstanding futures contracts are realized each day as future prices change
2317 Exchange clearinghouse stands behind all contracts so there is no counterparty default risk and trading is anonymous
2318Hedging with Forwards
2319 Naïve hedge is a hedge of a cash asset on a direct dollar-for-dollar basis with a forward (or futures) contract
2320 Managers can predict capital loss Change in P using duration formula
2321 INSERT 23-5 FORMULA
2322 Microhedging is using futures or forwards contracts to hedge a specific risk or liability
2323 Basis risk- residutual risk that occurs in a hedged position because the movement in an asset's spot price if not perfectly correlated with the movement in the price of the asset delivered under a future or forwards contract
2324 Macrohedging - heding the entire (leverage adjusted) duration gap of an FI
2325Hedging Considerations
2326 Microhedging and macrohedging
2327 Risk-return consideration
2328 FIs hedge based on expectations of future interest rate movements
2329 FIs may microhedge, macrohedge, or even overhedge
2330 Accounting rules can influence hedging strategies
2331 97 FASB required that all gains and losses from derivatives used to hedge must be recognized immediately
2332 US companies must report derivative-related trading actively in annual reports
2333 Future contracts are not subject to risk-based capital requirements imposed by bank regulators (forwards can be)
2334 In a full hedge the bank eliminates all or most of all its risk exposure such as interest rate risk
2335 Most managers engage in partial hedging where some risks are reduced and other are borne by the institution
2336Macro-Heding with Futures Contracts
2337 INSERT 23-12
2338Risk-Miniizing Futures Position
2339 INSERT 23-13 and 23-14
2340Options
2341 Buying a call option on a bond
2342 As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, and the call option buyer ha a large profit potential
2343 As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and call options are no larger than the call option premium
2344 Writing a call option on a bond
2345 As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, call option writer has a very large potential loss
2346 As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, call option gains will be no larger than call option premium
2347 Buying a put option on a bond
2348 As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and put option buyer has a large profit potential
2349 As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, but the put option losses are bounded by put option premium
2350 Writing a put option on a bond
2351 As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and the put option writer has large potential losses
2352 As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, but the put option gains are bounded by put option premium
2353 Many types of options are used by FIs to hedge
2354 Exchange-traded options
2355 Over the counter OTC options
2356 Caps, collars, and floors
2357 Buying a put option on a bond can hedge interest rate risk exposure related to bonds that are held as assets
2358 The put option truncates the downside losses
2359 The put option scales down the upside profits, but still leaves the upside profit potential
2360 Similarly, buying a call option on a bond can hedge interest rate risk exposure relating to bonds held on the liability side of the balance sheet
2361Caps, Floors, and Collars
2362 Buying a cap means buying a call option, or a succession of call options, on interest rates rather than on bond prices
2363 Like buying insurance against an excessive increase in interest rates
2364 Buying a floor is akin to buying a put option on interest rates
2365 Seller compensates the buyer should interest rates fall below the floor rate
2366 Like caps floors can have one or a succession of exercise dates
2367 Collar amounts to a simultaneous position in a cap and a floor
2368 Usually involves buying a cap and selling a floor to offset cost of cap
2369Contingent Credit Risk - risk that counterparty defaults on payment obligations
2370 Forward contracts and all OTC derivatives are exposed to counterparty default as they are nonstandard contracts entered into bilaterally
2371Swaps
2372 Swap agreements - contracts where two parties agree to exchange a series of payments over time
2373 Several types of swaps
2374 Interest rate swaps
2375 Parties agree to swap interest rate payments on a stated notional principal amount for a set period of time (some can be for more than 5 years) (no principal is exchanged)
2376 Currency swaps
2377 Parties agree to swap interest and principal payments in different currencies and preset exchange rate
2378 Credit default swaps (credit swaps)
2379 Total Return Swap TRS
2380 TRS buyer agrees to make a fixed rate payment to the seller plus capital gain or minus capital loss on the underlying payment
2381 In exchange, TRS seller may pay a variable or fixed rate of interest to the buyer
2382 Pure Credit Swap PCS
2383 Swap buyer makes fixed payments to the seller and the seller pays the swap buyer only in the event of default. This payment is usually equal to par - secondary market value of underlying instrument
2384 Credit swaps and the Crisis
2385 Lehman Bros and AIG sold credit swaps worth billions of dollars insuring mortgage-backed securities MBS
2386 When mortgage security values collapsed, required outflows at these firms far exceeded capital
2387 Other institutions invested more heavily in MBS because they were insured; exposure to mortgage markets was more widespread than it would have been otherwise
2388 Credi swaps may cause lenders to make loans they would not make otherwise make and earn fee income on other services offered to borrowers
2389 Market for swaps has grown enormously in recent years
2390 Nominal value of swap contracts outstanding at US commercial value banks was more than $141.7 trillion in 03
2391 Hedging with interest rate swaps
2392 Money center bank MCB may have floating-rate loans and fixed-rate liabilities
2393 MCB has a negative duration gap
2394 Savings bank SB may have fixed-rate mortgages funded by short-term liabilities such as retail deposits
2395 SB has positive duration gap
2396 Accordingly, interest swap can be entered into between the MCB and SB either
2397 directly between the two FIs
2398 OR
2399 indirectly through a broker or agent who charges a fee to accept credit risk exposure and guarantee cash flows
2400 Plain vanilla swap - standard agreement where one participant pay a fixed rate of interest and the other party pays a variable rate of interest on a stated notional principal; no principal is exchanged
2401 SB sends fixed-rate interest payments to the MCB
2402 Thus the MCBs fixed-rate inflows are now matched to the fixed-rate payments
2403 MCB sends variable-rate interest payments to the SB
2404 Thus the SBs variable-rate inflows are now matched to its variable rate payments
2405 Hedging with currency swaps
2406 Consider US FI with fixed-rate $ denominated assets and fixed-rate Euro denominated liabilities
2407 Also consider a UK FI with fixed-rate Euro denominated assets and fixed-rate $ denominated liabilities
2408 The FIs can engage in a currency swap to hedge their foreign exchange exposure
2409 That is, the FIs agree on a fixed change rate at the inception of the swap agreement for the exchange of cash flows at some point in the future
2410 Both FIs have effectively hedged their foreign exchange exposure by matching the denominations of their cash flows
2411Credit Swaps
2412 Credit swaps to hedge credit risk
2413 Involvement of other FIs in the credit risk shift
2414 Total return swap
2415 Swap interest payments for total return to a bond or loan, hedging possible change in credit risk exposure
2416 Pure credit swap
2417 Interest-rate sensitive element stripped out, leaving only the credit risk
2418Swaps and Credit Risk Concerns
2419 Credit risks concerns partially mitigated by netting of swap payments, with financial crisis elevated concerns
2420 Scale of individual firm exposures is large
2421 Lehman bros $700 billion and large exposure to AIG in particular
2422 Due to the role of swaps in the crisis, greater regulation resulted
2423 OTC Derivatives Market Act
2424Credit Risk on Swaps
2425 Growth of the OTC swap market was a major factor underlying the imposition of the BIS risk-based capital requirements
2426 Fear was that out-of-the-money counterparties would have incentives to default
2427 BIS now requires capital to be held against interest rate, currency, and other swaps
2428 Credit risk on swaps differs from that on loans
2429 Netting - only if the difference between the fixed and the floating payments is exchanged between swap parties
2430 Payment flows are often interest and not principal
2431 Standby letters of credit are required of poor-quality swap participants
2432Comparing Hedging Methods
2433 Writing vs Buying Options
2434 Writing options limits upside profits, but not downside losses
2435 Buying options limits downside losses, but not upside profits
2436 Futures vs Options Hedging
2437 Future produce symmetric gains and losses
2438 Options protect against losses, but do not fully reduce gains
2439 Swaps vs Forwards, futures, and gains
2440 Swaps and forwards are OTC contracts, unlike options and futures
2441 Futures are marked to market daily
2442 Swaps can be written for longer-time horizons
2443Regulation
2444 Regulators specify "permissible activities" that FIs may engage in
2445 Institutions engaging in permissible activities are subject to regulatory oversight
2446 Regulators judge the overall integrity of FIs engaging in derivatives activity based on capital adequacy regulation
2447 SEC and Commodity Future Trading Comission CFTC are functional regulators of derivatives securities markets
2448 Dodd-Frank Act 2010 requires most OTC derivatives to be exchange-traded to ensure performance by all parties
2449 Act also requires OTC derivatives to be regulated by SEC and/or CFTC
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2471Chapter 15 Insurance Companies
2472Insurance Companies (ICs)
2473 The primary function of insurance companies is to compensate policyholders if a prespecified event occurs, in exchange for premiums paid
2474 Insurance underwriters assess and price risk
2475 Insurance brokers sell insurance contracts
2476 Insurance is broadly classified into two groups
2477 Life insurance policies provide protection against untimely death or illness, and/or transfer wealth through time to retirement
2478 Property-casualty insurance protects against property damage, personal injury associated with specific events
2479 Insurance companies also sell a variety of investment products similar to other FIs
2480Life Insurance Companies
2481 Approx 1000 life insurance companies exist in the US in 2010s
2482 Compared to 2300 in 88
2483 Industry has seen consolidation to take advantage of scale and scope economies
2484 Aggregate industry assets were 5.73 trillion $ at the start of 2013
2485 Compared to 1.1$ trillion in 88
2486 Life insurers pool the risks of individuals to diversify away some of the customer specific risk
2487 Thus they are able to offer insurance services at a cost lower than any individual could achieve on their own
2488 This allows transfer of income related uncertainties from individual to the group
2489 Other activities of life insurance companies
2490 Sell annuities, which are savings contracts that involve the liquidation of those funds saved over time
2491 Manage pension plans (tax-deferred savings plans)
2492 Provide accident and health insurance
2493 Insurance companies accept or underwrite risk at a pre-specified event will occur in return for insurance premiums
2494 Underwriting decisions determine which risks are accepted and which are not
2495 Underwriting decisions determine how much to charge (in the form of premiums) for accepted risk
2496 Adverse selection problem – customers who apply for insurance are more likely to be in need of coverage
2497 Moral hazard – after an insurer and customer enter into insurance contract, insured engages in risky behavior because risk is covered
2498 Actuaries reduce risks of underwriting insurance
2499 With life insurance, actuaries analyze mortality, produce life tables, and apply time-value-of-money tools to price life insurance annuities and endowment policies
2500 With health insurance, actuaries analyze the rates of disability, morbidity, mortality, fertility, etc
2501 Ordinary life insurance is marketed to individuals, policyholders make periodic premium payments in exchange for coverage
2502 Term life
2503 Beneficiary receives payout at time of death
2504 If insured lives beyond term of contract, no benefits are paid
2505 Whole life
2506 Policy protects over entire lifetime
2507 Beneficiary receives face value of contract upon death
2508 Endowment life
2509 Beneiciary receives payment at time of death
2510 If insured lives beyond term of contract, insured receives face value of contract
2511 Variable life
2512 Premiums are invested in market securities
2513 Value of policy depends on value of securities
2514 Universal life
2515 Allows the insured to change both the premiums and the maturity of the contract
2516 Variable universal life
2517 Universal policy where premiums are invested in variable rate earning assets
2518 Group life insurance covers a large number of persons under a single policy
2519 Contributory – both employer and employee cover share of premiums
2520 Noncontributory – costs are borne entirely on the employer
2521 Credit life insurance – protects lenders against borrower death
2522 Other life insurance activities
2523 Annuities are investment vehicles that liquidate a fund (pay investors) over a long period of time
2524 Annuity sales were $356 billion in 2012
2525 Private pension funds compete with other financial service companies
2526 In 2013 insurers administered more than $2.9 trillion of pension fund assets
2527 Guaranteed investment contracts GICs are instrumental in many of these plans
2528 Accident and health insurance accounted for 25% of premiums written in 2012
2529 Life insurers write over 50% of all health premiums
2530ANNUTIES EXAMPLE AND FORMULA SLIDE 15-14
2531Life insurance balance sheet –
2532policy loans are loans made by an insurance company to its policyholders using policy as collateral
2533 Long term nature of assets matches liabilities
2534 Policy reserves reflect expected payment commitments on existing policy contracts
2535 Funds in separate account business are monies for which the insurer maintains separate accounting (annuities and certain insurance policies)
2536Insurers and 08-09 financial crisis
2537 Life insurance industry performed well during the mid-00s while stock markets and economy were doing well
2538 As crisis began insurers experienced losses on mortgage-backed securities, commercial loans, particularly commercial real estate, and on corporate bonds
2539 Result was very large profit declines in 08 (50% declines in 07) and continuing poor conditons in 09 on more losses and investments
2540 Industry conditions improved in 10 through 12, in 12 premium income stopped falling, net income rose to $40.9 billion up fron $28 bllion in 10
2541Life insurance regulation
2542 McCarren-Ferguson Act 1945 – confirmed primacy of states over federal regulation of ICs
2543 State insurance commissions charter and examine ICs
2544 National Association of Insurance Commissioners NAIC has developed coordinated examination system
2545 States promote insurance guarantee funds
2546 Funds are run by the insurance companies themselves
2547 Contributions are paid only when an IC falls (except in NY)
2548 Financial Services Modernizattion Act FSMA of 99 allowed CBs, IBs, and ICs to exist as subsidiaries under one Financial Holding Company FHC
2549 During financial crisis Congress considered adding federal regulator of the insurance industry, but left regulation to the states
2550 Dodd-Frank created Federal Insurance Office FIO that reports to Congress and President on Insurance industry
2551 FIO is supposed to identify systematic risks arising from insurers, monitor international insurance events, eliminate state regulatory gaps and encourage the offering of insurance products to underserved segment
2552 2013 Financial Stability Oversight Council FSOC designated AID, Metlife, and Prudential as systematically important non-banks
2553Property-Casualty P&C Insurance Companies
2554 Currently 2700 P&C sellers
2555 Top 10 firms have 53% market share
2556 Top 200 firms have 94% market share
2557 Property insurance involves coverage related to loss of real and personal property
2558 Casualty insurance offers protection against legal liability exposure
2559 Balance sheets of P&C
2560 Reinsurance – insurance companies can attempt to share risks by buying insurance from other insurance companies
2561 Generally shorter term investments than life insurers
2562 Policy surplus is equity
2563 Loss reserves and loss adjustment expenses
2564 Loss reserves are set aside to meet losses from underwriting
2565 Loss adjustment expenses represent administrative and adjusting costs associated with settling claims
2566 Unearned premiums
2567 Includes premiums that have been paid before insurance coverage has been provided
2568 P&C Insurance
2569 Underwriting risk – risk that premiums are insufficient to cover losses and administrative expenses after taking into account investment income
2570 Underwriting risk may result from
2571 Unexpected increases in loss rates
2572 Unexpected increases in expenses
2573 Unexpected decreases in investment profits
2574 Loss risk – function of actuarial predictability
2575 Property vs liability
2576 Severity vs frequency
2577 Long-tail vs Short-tail
2578 Product inflation vs social inflation
2579 Loss risk is a measure of pure losses incurred to premiums earned
2580 Premiums earned are premiums received and earned on insurance contracts because timer has passed with no claim filled
2581 Expense risk occurs from two major sources
2582 Loss adjustment expenses LAE
2583 Commissions and other expenses
2584 Combined ratio is a measure of overall profitability
2585 Equals loss ratio plus LAE to premiums written plus commissions and other expenses to premiums written
2586 Investment yield is measured as net interest income divided by premiums earned
2587 Operating ratio is also a measure of overall profitability
2588 Combined ratio minus investment yield
2589FORMULAS ON SLIDE 15-28
2590 Many catastrophes of historically high severity have occurred recently
2591 Underwriting cycle is a pattern that profits in P&C industry tend to follow
2592 Federal govt has consistently increased role of providing compensation and reconstruction assistance following natural disasters
2593P&C insurance regulation
2594 P&C insurers are chartered at state level
2595 P&C insurers are registered by state commissioners
2596 State guarantee funds provide (some) protection to policyholders
2597 NAIC provides services to state regulatory commissionsn such as Insurance Regulatory Information System IRIS
2598Global issues
2599 About 59% of total global life insurance premiums written are generated by 5 countries: US. Japan, UK, France, Germany
2600 Globally in 11 and 12 were bad years for insurance industry with insurred losses of $111 billion in 11 and $65 billion in 12
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2641
2642
2643
2644
2645Chapter 16 – Securities Firms and Investment Banks
2646Securities Firms and Investment Banks IBs
2647 Investment Banks IBs help corporations and governments riase capital through debt and equity security issues in the primary market
2648 Underwriting is assisting in issuing new securities
2649 IBs also advise on mergers and acquisitions M&As and corporate restructuring
2650 Securities firms assist in the trading of securities in secondary markets
2651 Broker-dealers assist in the trading of existing securities
2652 Size of industry is usually measured by the equity capital of firms rather than total asset size
2653 Equity capital in the industry in 12 was $223 billion
2654 Number of firms in the industry changed due to economies of scale and scope, losses with the economy, scandals at some firms, and regulations that allowed both inter- and intra-industry mergers
2655 5248 firms in 80, 9515 firms in 87, 5063 firms in 10
2656 As with commercial banks, consolidation has largely occurred through mergers and acquistions
2657 Commercial bank holding companies that opereate diversified national full-line firms
2658 Service both retail and wholesale customers by acting as broker-dealers
2659 Service corporate customers by underwriting security issues
2660 National full-line firms specializing in corporate finance
2661 Second largest group of firms are full-service firms that specialize in corporate finance or primary market activity ( focus less on secondary market activities)
2662 Large investment banks
2663 Have only limited branch networks concentrated in major cities and service primarily financial institution charts
2664 Smaller specialized firms such as:
2665 Regional investment bankers (boutiques)
2666 Discount brokers
2667 Internet brokers
2668 Venture capital brokers
2669 Exchange floor specialists
2670 Dealers in off exchange trading
2671Lines of Business
2672 Investment banking
2673 First time debt and equity issues occur through initial public offerings IPOs
2674 New issues from ma firm whose debt or equity is already traded is called seasoned equity offerings SEOs
2675 Private placement is securities issue that paced with one or a few large institutional investors
2676 Public offerings are offered to the public at large
2677 IBs act only as an agent in best efforts underwriting
2678 IBs act as principals in firm commitments
2679 Public vs Private?
2680 Public offering represents sale to public at large
2681 Private involves sale of securities to one or several large investors such as an insurane company or pension fund
2682 Venture Capital VC – professionally managed pool of money used to finance new (start up) and often high- risk firms
2683 VC usually purchases equity stake in start-up
2684 Usually becomes active in the management of the start-up
2685 Institutional venture capital firms find and fund most promising new firms
2686 Venture capital limited partnerships
2687 Financial venture capital firms
2688 Corporate venture capital firms
2689 Private equity investments
2690 Private equity PE differs from VC in funds sources and in types of investments
2691 PE Firms raise funds by selling securities rather than commingling private funds
2692 PE firms often acquire established existing firms rather than purchase startups
2693 Market making involves creation of secondary markets for issue of securities
2694 Agency transactions are two-way transactions on behalf of customers, here company takes no risk
2695 With principal transactions market seeks to profit for their own accounts, company capital at risk in these transactions
2696 Goldman Sachs managed $43 trillion in derivatives in securities in 2013 (18% of total held by FIs)
2697 Trading involves taking an active net position in an asset
2698 Position trading – involves relatively long-term positions in assets
2699 Pure arbitrage – involves attempts at profit from price discreptancies
2700 Risk arbitrage – involves attempts at profit by forecasting information release
2701 Program trading – simulatenous buying and selling of at least 15 different stocks valued at $1 million or more
2702 Stock brokerage involves trading on behalf of customers
2703 Electronic brokerage offers customers direct access via the internet to the trading floor
2704 Investing involves managing pools of assets such as closed- and open-end mutual funds
2705 As agents
2706 As principals
2707 Cash management involves deposit-like accounts such as money market mutual funds MMMFs that offer check writing privileges
2708 Merger and acquisition M&A assistance
2709 M&A activity bring large fees to bankers
2710 M&A business remains very cyclical and depends on economy
2711 Other Service functions
2712 Security custodian services
2713 Clearance and settlement services
2714 Escrow services, research and advice on divertitures and asset sales
2715Pure vs Risk Arbitrage
2716 Pure arbitrage- immediate buying and selling of similar assets trading at different prices
2717 Risk arbitratge- investor buys an asset in anticipation of some information release
2718 If investor sees gold selling in London for $1318 an ounce and $1325 in new York, can make a $7 profit
2719 Pure arbitrage
2720 This success depends on transaction costs, bid-ask spread, and how fast investor can execute transaction before others do the same and prices move to regular levels
2721 Industry Performance
2722 Industry trends heavily on the state of the stock market and the economy
2723 Commission income fell after the 1987 stock market crash and 01-02 stock market decline
2724 Improvments in the US economy in the mid 00s led to increases in commission income, but income fell with the stock market in 06-08 because of rising oil prices and the subprime mortgage collapse
2725 Revenues and profits fell record amounts in 08 but rebounded sharply in 09
2726 Industry employment fell sharply
2727 Low interest rates and strong stock market helped fuel profit recovery
2728 Profits began to reover in 10 but the fiscal cliff prolem and euro area probblems hurt profits in 11 and 12 but profits improved in 13
2729Regulation of Securities Firms and Investment Banks IBs
2730 Securities And Eexchange Commisison SEC is primary regulator of securities industry
2731 National Securities Market Improvement NSMIA 96 reaffrmed federal over state authority
2732 Even so state attorneys generally intervene through securities-related investiations that have led to many highly publicized criminal cases
2733 Sabarnes-Oxley Act SOX 02
2734 Created independent auditing oversight board under the SEC
2735 Increased penalties for corporate wrongdoers
2736 Forced faster and more extensive financial disclosure
2737 Created avenues of recourse for aggrieved shareholders
2738 SEC sets rules governing underwriting and trading activity
2739 SEC rule 144A defines boundaries between public offerings and private placements
2740 SEC investigating “dark pool†trading and high frequency flash trading
2741 Two self-regulatory organizations ooversee day-to-day regulation of trade practices
2742 New York Stock Exchange NYSE
2743 Financial Industry Regulatory Authority FINRA
2744 USA Patroit Act became effective in 03
2745 Firms must verify identity of customers
2746 Firms must maintain records of identities of customers
2747 Firms must verify ustomers are not on suspect terrorlist lists
2748 Investors in industry are protected by Securities Investor Protection Corporation SIPC
2749 Protect investors against losses up to $500,000 due to security firm failures (but not against poor investment decisions)
2750 Created following passage in Security Investor Protection Act of 70
2751 Under Dodd-Frank, Financial Services Oversight Council FSOC has oversight of systematic risk of industry
2752 More investment advisors will have to be registered with either the SEC or state advisors
2753 Securitization markets should now have more oversight and originators will have to retain a greater interest in loans that will be resold
2754 Greater transparency and regulation for OTC derivatives
2755 Government can also mandate higher capital requirements fofr larger and interconnected banks
2756 Govt oversight of industry has increased as a result of the law
2757 Executive compensation imposed by Obama administration
2758 Strengthen independence of the compensation committee from senior management
2759 Shareholders now also have a non-binding vote on executive compensation package
2760 Administration has a say on executive pay for firms that accepted bailout money
2761Global Issues
2762 Securities firms and investment banks are by far the most global of any group of financial institutions
2763 US Firms are increasingly lookin to expand their business abroad – particularly into China/India
2764 Increase in cross-border strategic alliances
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2826Chapter 24 - Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet with Loan Sales and Securitization
2827
2828Loan Sales and Securitization
2829 FIs use loan sales and securitzation to hedge credit, interest rate, and liquidity risk exposure
2830 Loan sale - occurs when FI originates a loan and then sebsequently sells it
2831 Loan securitization - packaging and selling of loans and other assets backed by securities issued by an FI
2832 Mortgage securitzation generally takes one of three forms:
2833 Pass-through securities
2834 Collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs)
2835 Mortgage-backed bonds (MBBs)
2836 Large part of correspondent banking involves small FIs making large loans and selling (or syndicating) parts of the loans to the large banks
2837 Correspondent banking - relationship between a small bank and a large bank in which the large bank provides a number of deposit, lending, and other services
2838 Large banks also sell parts of their loans, called participations, to smaller FIs
2839 Syndicated loan market is the buying and selling of loans once they have been originated
2840 Syndicated loan market participants
2841 Market makers
2842 Generally large commercial banks CBs and investment banks IBs
2843 Active traders
2844 Mainly IBs, CBs, and vulture funds
2845 Occasional sellers and investors
2846 Syndicated loan market grew rapidly in the early 1980s due to the expansion of HLT loans
2847 Highly leveraged transaction HLT loans are loans that finance a merger and acquisition: a leveraged buyout results in a high leverage ratio for the borrower
2848
2849Correspondent Banking Model
2850 Small banks
2851 Limited loan demand
2852 Want to buy loans
2853 Large loans that exceed lending limits
2854 Need to sell part to meet reg req
2855 Need help with complex products
2856 Inadequate loan diversification
2857 Large banks
2858 Can generate more loans than capital can support
2859 Small banks develop relationships with a major bank
2860 Big bank buys participation in large loans of small bank
2861 Small bank buys participation of loans of large bank
2862 Added loans
2863 Increased diversification
2864 Absorb part of excess loans of large bank
2865 Big bank provides services to smaller banks
2866 Becoming less important as markets become more sophisticated
2867
2868Loan Sales
2869 Loan sale - Sale of a loan originated by a bank with or without recourse
2870 Recourse - ability of a loan buyer to sell the loan back to the originator in case it goes bad
2871 Types of loan sale contracts
2872 Participation in a loan is the act of buying a share in a loan syndication with limited contractual control and rights over the borrower
2873 Assignment is the purchase of a share in a loan syndication with some contractual control and rights over the borrower
2874 Traditional short-term loan sales
2875 Secured by assets of the borrower
2876 Borrowers are investment grade
2877 Original maturities 90 days or less
2878 Sold in units of $1 million+
2879 Loan rates are closely tied to commercial paper rates
2880 HLT loan sales
2881 secured by assets of borrower
2882 original maturity of 3-6 years
2883 Interest rates are floating
2884 Have strong covenant protection
2885 May be distressed or nondistressed
2886 LDC loan sales
2887 LDC loans are loans made to less developed countries
2888 Factors encouraging future loan sales growth
2889 Fee income from originating loans is reported as current income, while interest earned on the loans is reported only when received in future periods
2890 Liquidity risk: creating a second market for loans reduces the illiquidity of loans held as assets
2891 Capital costs: regulatory capital ratios can be increased by reducing the overall size of the balance sheet
2892 Reserve requirements: reducing the overall size of the balance sheet can reduce the amount of reserves a bank must hold against its deposits
2893 Factors discouraging future loan sales growth
2894 Access to commercial paper (CP) market: many firms now rely on CP rather than bank loans
2895 Legal concerns such as fraudulent conveyance
2896
2897Loan Buyers
2898 Loan buyers
2899 Investment banks are predominant buyers of HLT loans
2900 Adept at the analysis required to value these types of loans
2901 Often are closely associated with the HLT borrower
2902 Vulture funds are specialized funds that invest in distressed loans
2903 Other domestic banks
2904 Traditional correspondent relationships are breaking down as markets get more competitive
2905 Counterparty risk and moral hazard have increased
2906 Barriers to nationwide banking have eroded and fewer smaller banks exist now than in the past
2907 Foreign banks - dominant buyer of US bank loans
2908 Insurance companies and pension funds buy long-term loans
2909 Closed-end bank loan mutual funds - buy US bank loans
2910 Nonfinancial corporations: predominantly financial service arms of the very largest companies
2911 Loan Sellers
2912 Money center banks - dominate loan sales
2913 Small regional or community banks sell loans to diversify community risks
2914 Foreign banks
2915 Investment banks and hedge funds sell HLT loans
2916 US govt and agencies
2917
2918LDC Debt
2919 In recent years three market segments of sovereign debt have emerged
2920 Sovereign bonds (government issued debt)
2921 Performing loans - sovereign loans that are collecting interest and principal
2922 Deep discount nonperforming loans which are sovereign loans that are not currently collecting interest and principal
2923 LDC loan-for-bond restructuring programs are called debt-for-debt swaps
2924 Developed under the US Treasury Brady Plan and under organizations such as the international monetary fund IMF
2925 A Brady Bond is a bond that is swapped for an outstanding loan to an LDC
2926 Once FIs loans are swapped for bonds, the bonds can be sold in the secondary market
2927 LDC bonds
2928 have much longer maturities than that have promised on the original loans
2929 have lower promised original coupons (yields) than the interest rates on the original loans
2930
2931Loan Securitization
2932 Securitization - process of transforming loans (or other debt instruments) into marketable securities
2933 About 50-60% of single family mortgages are securitized
2934 Pass-through mortgage securities "pass-through" promised payments by households of principal and interest on pools of mortgages created by FIs to secondary market investors holding an interest in these pools
2935 Each pass-through security represents a fractional ownership in a mortgage pool
2936 Pass-through securitization was original developed by government-sponsored programs to enhance the liquidity of residential mortgages
2937 Ginnie Mae (GNMA)
2938 Fannie Mae (FNMA)
2939 Freddie Mac (FHLMC)
2940
2941GNMA Pass-Through Security Creation
2942 Suppose 1000 mortgages for $100,000 each are originated by an FI
2943 As a result of the mortgages (and from having to fund the mortgages with deposits)
2944 The FI faces the regulatory burden of capital requirements, reserve requirements, and FDIC insurance premiums
2945 The FI is exposed to interest rate risk and liquidity risk
2946 The FI can avoid regulatory burden and risk exposure by securitizing the loans and thus removing them from the balance sheet
2947 1. Loans are packaged together into a mortgage pool
2948 2. Mortgage pool is removed from the balance sheet by placing it with a third-party trustee
2949 3. GNMA guarantees, for a fee, the timing of interest and principal payments associated with pool of mortgages
2950 4. The FI continues to service the pool of mortgages, for a fee, even after the mortgages are placed in trust
2951 5. GNMA issues pass-through securities backed by the mortgage pool
2952 6. Securities are sold to outside investors and the proceeds go to the originating FI
2953
2954Prepayment Risk
2955 Most mortgages are fully amortized
2956 Full amortization is the equal, periodic repayment on a loan that reflects part interest and part principal over the life of a loan
2957 Most mortgages are paid off prior to maturity because borrowers move or refinance their mortgages
2958 To prepay is to pay back a loan before its maturity
2959 Thus realized cash flows can deviate from expected cash flows
2960
2961Creation of a Three-Class CMO
2962 CMOs are usually created by placing existing pass-through securities in a trust off-the-balance sheet
2963 The trust issues three different classes, each with a different level of prepayment risk
2964 Class A - CMO holders have the leas prepayment protection as all principal prepayments are first paid to this tranche until they have been paid off in full
2965 After all Class A are paid, Class B receive principal prepayment cash flows
2966 Class B - receive payment after all Class A have been retired
2967 Class C - has the most prepayment protection as they are last tranche to receive principal payments
2968 Each class also receives regular coupon (interest) payments
2969
2970Collateralized Mortgage Obligations
2971 Collateralized Mortgage Obligations CMOs are mortgage-backed securities issued in multiple classes or tranches to provide prepayment protection
2972 In a 'sequential pay CMO' tranches are differentiated by the order in which each class is paid off
2973 Each class has a guaranteed coupon payment buy prepayment of principal occurs sequentially to only one class of bondholder at a time
2974 Thus some classes of bondholders are more protected against prepayment risk than others
2975 Sum of prices at which CMO classes can be sold normally exceeds that of the original pass-through
2976 CMOs restructured prepayment risk makes each class more attractive to specific classes of investors
2977 CMOs with up to 17 different classes have been created
2978 CMOs often contain a Z-class that accrues, but does not pay interest (or principal) until all other classes that have been fully retired
2979 Another special CMO class is a Planned Amoritzation Class PAC
2980 Produces a constant cash flow within a band of prepayment rates
2981 Offers greater predictability of cash flows
2982 Has priority in receiving principal payments
2983 Most CMOs today are created as real estate mortgage investment conduits (REMICs)
2984 REMICs pass-through all interest and principal payments before taxes are levied
2985 Mortgage pass-through strips are a special type of CMO with only two classes
2986 Principal component of the pass-through is separated from the interest component
2987 Interest only IO strip is a CMO with claim to the interest
2988 Principal only PO strip is a CMO with claim to the principal
2989 Special features of IO strips
2990 When prepayment occurs
2991 The amount of interest payments the IO investor receives falls as the outstanding principal in the mortgage pool falls
2992 The number of interest payments the IO investor receives may also shrink
2993 Because the values of IO strips can fall when interest rates decline, IO strips are a rare security with negative convexity
2994 This unique feature makes IO strips useful as a portfolio-hedging device
2995
2996Mortgage Backed Bonds
2997 MBBs are bonds collateralized by a pool of mortgages
2998 MBBs differ from pass-throughs and CMOs
2999 Mortgages remain on the balance sheet
3000 Mortgages collateralize MBBs but are not directly related to the associated cash flows
3001 FIs usually back MBBs with excess collateral, which results in a higher investment rating for the MBB than for the issuing FI
3002 MBB costs
3003 MBBs tie up mortgages on the balance sheet for long periods of time
3004 FI is subject to prepayment risk on the underlying mortgages
3005 FI continues to face capital adequacy and reserve requirement taxes as the mortgages remain on the balance sheet
3006
3007Securitization of Other Assets
3008 The same securitization techniques applied to mortgages have been used to securitize other assets:
3009 Automobile loans
3010 Credit card receivables (CARDs)
3011 Small Business Administration guaranteed small business loans
3012 Commercial and industrial loans
3013 Student loans
3014 Equipment loans
3015 Junk bonds
3016 Time share loans
3017 Adjustable-rate mortgages
3018
3019Collateralized Debt Obligations CDOs
3020 The CDO originator purchases a pool of assets and using the pool as collateral, issues different claims or 'tranches' to CDO investors
3021 Tranches have different levels of security
3022 Senior tranches often had AAA ratings but were collateralized by mortgage-backed securities that turned out to be riskier than believed
3023 When mortgage markets collapsed, CDO claims could not be paid and tranche holders expected the CDO issuer, such as a bank, to continue to pay
3024 Many CDOs failed during the crisis and issuance fell from over $500 billion per year to around $8 billion in 2010
3025 If the primary assets are loans, the structure is termed a collateralized loan obligation CLO
3026
3027Costs and Benefits of Securitization (24-36 add)
3028
3029Final Words on Securization & Derivatives
3030 Using CDOs allowed banks to create more mortgages overall and more poorer credit quality
3031 As found out 07-08 banks still had responsibility for these mortgages, even though they were not required to hold capital to back them since they had been shifted off the balance sheet (now changed)
3032 Derivatives and securitization undoubtly made the financial crisis of 07-09 worse than it would have been otherwise and regulators and bank boards probably did not understand the risks involved
3033
3034
3035
3036
3037
3038
3039
3040
3041
3042
3043
3044
3045
3046
3047
3048
3049
3050
3051
3052
3053
3054
3055
3056
3057
3058
3059
3060
3061
3062Chapter 18 - Pension Funds
3063Pension Funds
3064 Pension Funds PFs offer savings plans through which participants accumulate tax deferred savings during their working years before withdrawing them in their retirement years
3065 Earnings on funds invested are excempt from current taxation (during working years)
3066 tax payments are not made until funds are withdrawn by participant (during retirement)
3067 PFs were first established in the US in 1759 to benefit widows/children of church ministers
3068 First corporate PF was American Express Co in 1875
3069 40s around 400 pfs existed (railroad, banking, public utilities)
3070 2013 - over 680,000 pfs exist
3071 34% of US households financial assets were PFs
3072 compared to 5% in 1950
3073 Financial crisis reduced global pension from $25 trillion to $20 trillion
3074 US retirement fell by $2 trillion causing many to postpone retirement and reduce spending
3075 Two distinct PF sectors
3076 Private PFs are funds administered by private corporations (insurance companies or mutual funds)
3077 Total financial assets 13 were $10423.8 billion
3078 Public PFs are funds administered by federal, state, or local governments (social security)
3079 Total financial assets 13 were $8312.8 billion
3080 Pension plan governs operation of pension fund
3081 Pension funds broadly classified into two categories:
3082 Definied Benefit plans - fund in which employer agrees to provide employee with a specific cash benefit upon retirement
3083 Flat benefit formula - PF pays a flat amount for every year of employment
3084 Flat benefit x # of years
3085 Career average formula - PF pays benefits based on employee average salary over entire period of employment
3086 Flat percentage of average
3087 Average salary over entire career x 60% average
3088 Flat percentage 4% average adjusted by years of service
3089 Average salary over entire career x 0.04 x number of years
3090 Final pay formula - PF pays benefits based on percentage of average salary during specified number of years at end of employee's career times number of years of service
3091 Variant: figure benefit based on percentage of average salary during specified number of years when employees earnings were highest times number years of service
3092 Flat percentage of 4% of last 5 years
3093 Final salary over last years x 0.04 x # of years
3094 Fully funded PF has sufficient funds available to meet all expected future payment obligations based on actuarial projections
3095 Underfunded PF does not have sufficient funds available to meet all future promised payments
3096 Overfunded PF has more than enough funds available to meet required future payouts
3097 Defined Contribution: PF is a fund which the employer agrees to make a specified contribution to the pension fund during the employee's working years
3098 fixed-income funds offer guaranteed rate of return
3099 variable-income funds- all profits and losses on underlying securities are passed through to the fund participants
3100 the PF shifts investment risk from employer to employee
3101 Most DC plans allow employee to select mix of investments
3102 Mutual funds allow for diversification
3103 Many require employer contribution to be invested in company stock (diversification risk)
3104 Requires investment sophistication most people do not have
3105Pension Fund Administration
3106 Pension funds may be insured or noninsured
3107 Insured pension fund is administered by life insurance company
3108 noninsured pension is administerd by some other type of financial institution
3109 Private pension funds are created by private entities and administered by private corporations
3110 $10423.8 billion in totoal financial assets in 2013
3111
3112Private Pension Funds
3113 401k and 403b plans are employer-sponsored plans that supplement a firm's basic retirement plan
3114 allow for both employer and employee contributions
3115 401k plans offered to employees of taxable firms
3116 403b plans offered to employees of tax exempt employers
3117 contributions are made on a pretax basis
3118 most plans transferable if employee changes jobs
3119 participants generally make their choice of the allocation of assets from both employee and employer contributions
3120 young participants generally invest more in equitiyies while older participants generally invest more in fixed-income securities
3121
3122Calculating Return on 401k
3123 Employee gross contributution 1 = Salary * contribution
3124 Tax savings 2 = 1 * tax bracket %
3125 3 Employee net of tax contribution = 1 - 2
3126 Employer contribution 4 = Salary * company match * of first x%
3127 5 Total 401k plan investment at year start = 1 + 4
3128 One-year earnings = 5 * rate of return%
3129 7 total 401k investment at year-end = 1 + 4 + 6
3130 8 employee's one year return = (7 - 3)/3
3131 401k worth when retired = 5{[1+rate of return)^ years) - 1]/rate of return}
3132 Employee net of tax contributions = 3 * years
3133
3134Effect of Asset Allocation ADD SLIDE 18-21/22
3135
3136IRAs
3137 Individual retirement accounts IRAs are self directed retirement accounts set-up by employees who may also be covered by employer-sponsored pension plans
3138 contributions are made strictly by employee
3139 first introd in 81 to supplement employer-sponsored programs
3140 2013- max contributon 5500 per year
3141 Roth IRAs introd in 98
3142 08 max 5500 yearly contribution per individual
3143 contributions are taxed in the year of contributions while withdrawals are tax-free asl ong as tehy have been invested at least five years and account holders if 59 1/2 years old
3144 income test for availability
3145Pension funding problem 12-28 slide
3146Public Pension Funds
3147 State/local government pension funds
3148 "pay as you go" in the current employee contributions fund current retiree benefits
3149 because of an increasing number of retirees relative to workers, some funds current payments exceed current contributions
3150 Federal government pension funds
3151 Civil service funds cover all federal employees not in armed forces
3152 such employees not covered by social security
3153 Military pension fund covers career military personnel
3154 military personnel are also covered by social security
3155 military personnel are eligible after 20 years of military service
3156 Social security aka Old Age and Survivors Insurance Fund
3157 provides benefits to almost all employees and self-employed individuals in the US
3158 established 1935 provide minimum level of retirement income to all retirees
3159 funded on a "pay as you go" basis
3160 historically contributions have exceeded disbursements
3161 FICA contributions are 7.65% of the fire $115,500 earned in 2013 (matched by employer contribution of 7.65%)
3162 Self-employed individuals pay full 15.30%
3163 Social security disbursements exceeded contributions first time in 2010
3164 Excess contributions placed in social security trust fund
3165 system expected to run out by 2034 (benefits reduced)
3166 Contributions are invested in low risk and low-return US treasury securities
3167 coupled with slow population growth and increasing retirement, long-term viability of social security is in question
3168 Social security restructured in mid 90s
3169 Required contributions increased
3170 Benefits decreased
3171 Full retirement aged increased to 67 people born after 1959
3172 Dollar amount of income subject to FICA increases every year
3173 Future changes to Social Security slow to occur
3174 increasing contributions/decreasing benefits are unpopular with public
3175 economic downturn in the US has shifted spotlight away from SS
3176
3177Pension Fund Regulation
3178 Employee Retirement Security Act ERISA 1974 - focuses on 5 areas of reform
3179 Pension plan funding
3180 Prior to ERISA, regulation did not require PFs to be adequately funded
3181 ERISA established guidelines for funding and set penalties for fund deficiencies
3182 contributions must be sufficient to meet all annual costs and expenses
3183 PFs must fund any unfunded historical liabilities over 30 year period
3184 any new underfunding must be funded over 15-year period
3185 Vesting of benefits
3186 Vested employee is an employee who is eligible to receive pension benefits because he or she has worked for a stated period of time
3187 prior to ERISA, vesting could take 25 years
3188 ERISA set maximum of 10 years
3189 Fiduciary responsibilities of fund administrators
3190 PF fiduciary is a trustee or investment advisor that manages a PF
3191 ERISA requires that PF contributions be invested with the same diligence, skill, and care as a "prudent person"
3192 sole objective of PF management is to provide promised benefits of plan participants
3193 Pension fund transferability
3194 ERISA allows employees to transfer pension credits from one employer to another when switching jobs
3195 Pension fund insurance
3196 ERISA established Pension Benefit Guaranteed Corporation PBGC
3197 PBGC insures participants of defined benefit pension plans
3198 employers paid $1 in premiums per employee when PBGC created in 1974
3199 Due to chronic deficits the Retirement Protection Act of 94 attempted to strengthen PBGC
3200 by 2000 PBGC operated at surplus of 9.7 billion
3201 Large bankruptcies in early 2000s resulted in the agency posting a $23.3 billion deficit and a call for additional reform in 05
3202 Pension Protection Act of 06
3203 increased annual premiums from $19 to $30 per employee for fully funded firms, now as high as $49 in 2013
3204 underfunded plans now pay $9 per $1000 of underfunding
3205 gives companies 5 years to make up shortfalls in defined benefit pension plans
3206 requires companies to tell investors and employees well before plans become significantly underfunded
3207
3208
3209
3210
3211
3212
3213
3214
3215
3216
3217
3218
3219
3220
3221
3222
3223
3224
3225
3226
3227
3228
3229
3230
3231
3232
3233
3234
3235
3236
3237
3238
3239FINAL FORMULA SHEET
3240Ch22
3241The change in net interest income for any given bucket i(ΔNIIi) is measured as:
3242ΔNIIi= (GAPi)ΔRi= (RSAi– RSLi)ΔRi
3243where
3244GAPi = the dollar size of the gap between the book value of rate-sensitive assets and rate-sensitive liabilities in maturity bucket i
3245ΔRi = the change in the level of interest ratesimpacting assets and liabilities in the ith maturity bucket
3246
3247Common cumulative gap of interest to commercial bank managers is the one-year repricing gap estimate
3248ΔNII = (ΣRSAi - (ΣRSLi) ΔRi
3249where ΔNII is the cumulative change in net interest income from all rate-sensitive assets and liabilities that are repriced within a year given a change in interest rates ΔRi
3250
3251Bank balance sheet/repricing gap
3252Assets = Cash and due from + short-term consumer loans (1yr) + long-term consumer loans (2yr) + 3mo t bills + 6mo t notes + 3y t bonds + 10yr fixed-rate mortgages + 30yr floating-rate mortgaes + premises
3253Liabilities = 2yr time deposits + demand deposits + passbook savings + 3mo CDs + 3mo banker acceptances + 6mo commercial paper + 1yr time deposits + equity capital
3254
3255The spread effect is the effect that a change in the spread between rates on RSAs and RSLs has on net interest income as interest rates change
3256ΔNIIi= (RSAi x ΔRRSA) – (RSLi x ΔRRSL)
3257
3258Duration - measures interest rate sensitivity of an asset or liability's value to small changes in interest rates
3259D = - %Δ in the market value of a security / (ΔR / (1+R))
3260Duration for a fixed-income security that pays interest annually
3261Dur = {[(CFt x t) / (1+r)^t ] / P0 } = (PVt x t) / P0
3262P0= Current price of the security
3263t= 1 to T, the period in which a cash flow is received
3264T= the number of years to maturity
3265CFt= cash flow received at end of period t
3266r= yield to maturity or required rate of return
3267PVt= present value of cash flow received at end of period t
3268
3269Duration Model
3270Change in market value of asset portfolio for change in interest rates
3271ΔA = A x (-Da) x (ΔR / (1+R)
3272Change in market value of liability portfolio for change in interest rates
3273ΔL = L x (-Dl) x (ΔR / (1+R)
3274
3275A = L + E -> ΔA = ΔL + ΔE
3276Change in net worth = ΔE = -(Da - kDl) x A x (ΔR / (1+R))
3277
3278Leverage adjusted duration gap = (Da - kDl)
3279
3280ΔNet Int Inc = (RSA - RSL) (increase in interest rates)
3281
3282NII at current rates = Interest income - Intersest expense
3283Interest income = (floating rate mortgages * their current rate*) +(30yr fixed loans * their current rate)
3284Interest expense = (1 yr time deposits * current rate) + (3yr time deposits * current rate)
3285Future rates add the % to the current rate for floating rate mortgages & 1yr time deposits
3286
3287Chapter 18
3288Flat benefit pension formula = Flat amount x # of years served
3289Career average, flat % = average salary * % of average salary
3290Career average, flat% adjusted = average salary * lower% of average salary * # of years
3291Final pay = Final salary * lower% of salary * # of years
3292
3293Calculating Return on 401k
3294Employee gross contributution 1 = Salary * contribution
3295Tax savings 2 = 1 * tax bracket %
32963 Employee net of tax contribution = 1 - 2
3297Employer contribution 4 = Salary * company match * of first x%
32985 Total 401k plan investment at year start = 1 + 4
3299One-year earnings = 5 * rate of return%
33007 total 401k investment at year-end = 1 + 4 + 6
33018 employee's one year return = (7 - 3)/3
3302401k worth when retired = 5{[1+rate of return)^ years) - 1]/rate of return}
3303Employee net of tax contributions = 3 * years
3304
3305Impact of Asset Allocation on 401k
3306(Employee Contributions + Employer Contributions) = A
3307(A(% of equities){[(1+%allocation to equity)^years) - 1]/%allocation to equity}) + (A(% of bonds){[(1+%allocation to bonds)^years) - 1]/%allocation to bonds}) + (A(% of mms){[(1+%allocation to mms)^years) - 1]/%allocation to mms})
3308
3309Annual payment = Average Salary (increased by # of retire in years) * % per year * (Current years + Retire in years)
3310
3311Total investment = Your contribution (which is salary * 401k contributions) + (employer match% * your contribution)
3312Your Contribution - Tax Savings(tax bracket * your contribution) = AT cost
3313Investment earnings = ROI * total investment
3314Value at end of year = Total investment + investment earnings
3315Emp return = (Investment earnings +employer match + tax savings) / AT cost
3316Invest at retirement = FV(ROI;Yrs to retire;-Total investment)
3317
3318Ch15
3319Annuity Monthly Payment = (Policy Amount) / [(1-(1/[(1+(r/12))^#ofmonths] / (r/12) ]
3320=PMT(InterestRate/Pmtsperyr;# of years*pmtsperyr;-Amount invested
3321
3322Loss Ratio = Losses/Premiums
3323Expense Ratio = Expenses / Premiums
3324Dividend Ratio = Dividends
3325Comb ratio aft div = Loss Ratio + Expense Ratio + Div Ratio
3326Investment Ratio = Investment Income / Premiums
3327Operating Ratio = Combined Ratio - Investment Ratio
3328Overall profitability = 1 - Operating Ratio
3329NII Required = Expenses + Losses + (Dividends * Premiums) - Premiums
3330Nii Ratio Req = NII Req / Premiums
3331
3332Min Inv Ratio = Loss Ratio + Loss Adj Ratio + (Comm/Div) - Break even
3333
3334Chapter 16
3335
3336Proceeds = Shares * price
3337Bank profits = (Price to public - price to person) * shares
3338Best Efforts Proceeds = Best Effort Sales * (Price to person - best efforts commission per sale)
3339
3340After a rate increase
3341Interest payment = (Face value / pmts pr year) * coupon % rate
3342New rate = Coupon rate % * (rate change / 10000)
3343Mkt price = =PV(NewRate/Pmtspryear;term years*pmtsperyear;-interestpayment;-Facevalue
3344Loss or gain = difference of face and new mkt price
3345
3346Chapter 23
3347
3348Capital Loss (ΔP = -D x P x (ΔR / (1+r))
3349P = initial value of asset D = duration of asset R = interest rate
3350ΔE=-(DA-kDL) ×A×ΔR/(1 + R)
3351ΔE = change in FI's net worth
3352Da = duration of asset portfolio
3353Dl = duration of liability
3354k = ratio of an FI's liab to assets (L/A)
3355A = assets
3356ΔR/(1+r) = shock to interest rates
3357
3358Risk-minimizing future position
3359ΔF/F = -Df * ΔR/(1+R)
3360ΔF = -Df * (ΔR / (1+R)) * F
3361ΔF = change in $ value of future contracts
3362F = dollar value
3363Df = duration of bond to be delivered
3364ΔR = expected shock to interest rates
33651+R = 1 + current interest
3366
3367Cost of CAD = Loan Amount CAD * Spot$/CAD
3368Hedged Dollar = 6 mo future $/CAD * Loan amount CAD
3369Hedged - Cost of CAD = Gain or Loss
3370Interest CAD = (Rate*LoanAmountCAD)/2
3371Interest $ = Interest CAD * 6 mo future $/CAD
3372Earnings on loan = Gain or loss + Interest$
3373ROI = Earnings on loan / (Cost of CAD * 2)
3374
3375Price of Treasuries at time = (1+/- change in treasuries) * current price of treasuries contract
3376Proceed from sale of X contracts = Current price * X
3377Purchase cost at time = X * price of treasuries at time
3378Gain/loss on future contracts = proceeds from sale - purchase cost
3379Net impact of rate rise = Gain/loss on future contract +/- change in interest expense
3380Portion of cost hedged = Gain/loss on future contract / change in interest expense
3381
3382Nf = -(Da-kDl)A/Df*Pf
3383Nf =ROUNDDOWN(-((DurationAssets-k*DurationLiabilities)*Assets/Liabilities/(Df*Pf$100 /100;0)
3384ΔE = -DGAP[DR/(1+R)]A
3385Change in E aka Gain/Loss on interest change=-DGAP*((ChangeIntRatesBP/10000)/(1+MarketIntRate))*Assets
3386ΔBond Price = -Df * (%Δif *A)
3387Change in Bond Price = -Df*((ChangeIntRatesBP/10000)/(1+If))*Pf$100*FaceofContract/100
3388k = Liabilities / assets
3389DGAP =Asset Duration-K*LiabilityDuration
3390Gain/loss on contracts = Change in Bond Price * Nf
3391Net Gain = Gain/loss on contracts + Gain/loss on interest charge
3392ΔA = -Da*(ΔR/(1+R0)*Assets)
3393ΔL = -Dl*(ΔR/(1+R0L)*Liabilities)
3394ΔE = ΔA + ΔL ΔE = -DurGap*Assets*(ΔR/(1+R)) ΔE = ΔF*Nf
3395Nf = rounddown(-ΔE/ΔF;0) ΔF = Df*(ΔR/(1+R))*Pf*1000
3396
3397CD Interest = Deposit Value*DepositRate*(TermMonths/12)
3398CD Amount Due = CD Interest + Deposit Value
3399Bond SKr Interest = Bond Principal * (Bond Rate /2)
3400Bond SKR Due = Bond Principal + Bond SKr Interest
3401Bond with hedge$ = 6mofwd$/Skr * Bond SKr Due
3402Gain or Loss = BondwithHedge$-CDAmountDue
3403Spread/year = (GainorLoss*12/TermMos)/BondValue
34046mogain @given%ann spread = (Spread/yr given/2) * deposit value
3405Bond Int & princ @ fwd rate = CD Amount Due + 6MoGain
3406Fwd Rate = Bond Int / Bond SKR Due
3407
3408
3409
3410Chapter 24
3411Annual interest payment = Loan rate % * Principal
3412Sale proceeds WR = PV(Disct rate recourse;termyrs;-annual interst payment;-principal)
3413Sale proceeds WOR = PV(Disct rate wo recourse;termyrs;-annual interst payment;-principal)
3414Expected proceeds = Sale prceeds WR * (1-PDefault) If proceeds less than sale proceeds WR, sell with recourse
3415
3416Guarantee Fee = Guarantee BP / 10000
3417Servicing Fee = Servicing BP / 10000
3418Net to Investor = Coupon% - Guarantee Fee - Servicing Fee
3419Mo pmt to investor = PMT=(Nettoinvestor/12;Termyears*pmtsperyr;-Face)
3420PV of GNMA = PV(Market rate/pmtsperyear;Termyears*pmtsperyear;-Mopmttoinvestor;0)
3421
3422I&P on amort = PMT(Net to investor/12;termyrs*12;-Face/2;0)
3423Int pmt on unamort = Net to investor/Pmtperyr * Face/2
3424Mo pmt to investor (amoritzed) = I&P pmt on amort + Int Pmt on unamort
3425
3426Quarterly Payment = PMT(CouponRate/Pmtspryr;Termyrs*pmtspryr;Facevalue;0)
3427Quarterly Chart = Beginning Balance - > Int Payment - > Principal Pmt - Ending Balance (becomes new beg bal)
3428Int payment = Beginning balance * (Coupon rate / Pmts pr year)
3429Principal Pmt = Quarterly Pmt - Int pmt
3430End balance = Beg balance - Principal pmt
3431
3432Tranche 1st int pmt = (TrancheRate%/Pmtspryr)*TranchePrincipal
3433
3434Equity Funding Captital Requirement = New loans*Req Cap Asset% * Capital coverage of commercial loans (100%?)
3435Depository Funding = New loans - equity funding
3436Deposits Needed = Depository funding / (1 - reserve requirement ratio)
3437
3438Annual payment = PMT(Loan rate%;Loanratematurity;-Loan value)
3439Rate to investor = Loan rate% - (basis points / 10000)
3440Annual payment = PMT(Ratetoinvestor;Loanratematurity;-Loan value)
3441
3442Monthlypayment = PMT(LoanRate%/Pmtspryr;LoanMaturity*Pmtsperyr;-Loanvalue)
3443Yield = LoanRate%-[(GNMA basispts + Serving basispts)/10000]
3444Monthly Rate = Yield/12 Monthly payment with monthly rate replaced
3445Month 1 servicing or ins fee = (Servicing fee or ins fee/10000)/12 * Loanvalue
3446
3447Da = (Dcash*weightcash) + (D current loans * weight current loans) + (D new loan * weight new loan