E6WnFE3Z

1When Theresa May began her address to the nation at 8.25pm on Wednesday, her former head of strategy, Chris Wilkins, was in Beirut — a city that has become a byword over four decades for internecine conflict and political warfare. Earlier that day a political operative said to him: “Goodness, your politics is screwed.”
2
3A chastened Wilkins flew home and as he landed he digested the fact that his old boss had just delivered a tub-thumping address down the barrel of a TV camera accusing MPs of seeking to thwart her Brexit deal. “Two years on, MPs have been unable to agree a way to implement the UK’s withdrawal,” she said. “As a result, we will now not leave on time with a deal on March 29.” To the voters she declared: “I am on your side.”
4
5For an embattled prime minister trying to win the support of MPs for her deal — which has twice been rejected by historically large margins — to take aim at those same MPs was quickly derided as not just counter-productive but evidence of a collapse in the prime minister’s judgment and proof that her government was no longer able to govern.
6
7“I think Wednesday was a tipping point,” Wilkins said. “There have been many mistakes and people have still stuck with her but I think that might be the statement that brought down the prime minister.”
8
9This weekend that judgment has gathered support across May’s cabinet and the party she has represented for more than 40 years. The speech was the capstone of a disastrous week — a culmination of flaws in the prime minister’s strategy and personality that have put her increasingly at odds with her ministers, MPs and parliament, presiding over a Downing Street team at war with itself, where key players are barely on speaking terms.
10
11This weekend, senior Tories see a prime minister who has used secrecy and stubbornness to survive but whose every decision now sparks consequences she cannot control and whose authority has eroded to the point where her premiership has dissolved into coffin full of dreams. How did it all go wrong?
12
13The Bercow bombshell
14
15Last weekend May’s aides were planning to publish an arrangement designed to woo her Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) allies to back her Brexit deal, which they hoped would give Jacob Rees-Mogg — the leader of the ERG group of hardline Eurosceptics — a route back to support her. Insiders say they may have been within 40 votes of victory.
16
17Then, on Monday afternoon, the Speaker of the Commons, John Bercow, dropped a political bombshell. Without giving the government notice, he announced that it would not be allowed to bring back the deal for a third “meaningful vote” unless it had changed substantially.
18
19Constitutional experts quickly suggested ways to circumvent the ruling — but in Downing Street there was panic. The sense of momentum was lost.
20
21“It was something we could have ignored,” a cabinet minister said. “There were several ways around it but we chose to be spooked by it.”
22
23Cabinet clashes
24
25When the cabinet met on Tuesday it wrestled with the options. Without a deal, May would have to go to the European Council meeting in Brussels on Thursday and request an extension to article 50, delaying Brexit. The question was whether it should be a short or long delay.
26
27Those who favour a no-deal Brexit, including Gavin Williamson and Liz Truss, argued for a short extension. They were backed by Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, who said that a long extension, which would entail fighting the European elections, would cause “indescribable pain for the party”.
28
29On the other side, remainers such as David Gauke, the justice secretary, who feared a short deadline and a no-deal Brexit, argued: “If you rule out a long extension, your deal is dead because the pressure will be off the ERG.”
30
31Ministers were quick to brief afterwards that May had seemed to have no personal views and sat like a “nodding dog” as others spoke. In fact she had given a clear direction of travel that suggested her priority was to keep up pressure on Brexiteers who feared a long extension.
32
33She said: “A short extension would be challenging given the risk of no deal. It is important that while the cabinet does support a short extension, we cannot do anything which provides any incentive not to vote for the deal.” She agreed to write to party members outlining why no deal was so difficult. Within 24 hours she had abandoned that position in a way that may have made her premiership implode.
34
35Brexiteers strike
36
37In retrospect the key intervention at cabinet came at the end from Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, who told May that she “might as well give up on the ERG because they are coming over too slowly”. He argued that May should switch the jeopardy in her Brexit policy to Labour MPs by turning her argument from “my deal or no Brexit” to “my deal or no deal”. And that meant a short extension.
38
39On Tuesday evening, the Brexiteers in the cabinet and those such as Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid, who have taken their side in debates on Brexit, gathered for a meeting of the cabinet’s so-called “pizza club”. The host, Andrea Leadsom, the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, and Fox all dropped heavy hints that they would resign if May asked Brussels for a long extension. “They made it very clear they would not be able to accept it,” said one of those present. Javid, the home secretary, agreed that Fox was right that there needed to be a pivot. “Andrea was particularly gung-ho.”
40
41Their views were passed to the chief whip, Julian Smith. He was already receiving intelligence of an ERG meeting that had turned into a “bloodbath” for May, with only three speakers out of 20 failing to call for her head. Even they did not speak positively of the prime minister. Brexiteer sources suggested up to 15 Tory MPs were prepared to vote with Labour in a no-confidence motion to bring down the government if May pursued a long-term extension.
42
43Sir Henry Bellingham suggested that MPs sign a letter calling for May to quit with the hope of securing the backing of half the party. After an abortive coup to oust her last year, under Tory rules May cannot be challenged until December, but others suggested Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, should run a non-binding indicative vote on the leadership.
44
45Smith was concerned because he knew the discontent went wider. When the prime minister had called Richard Drax, the MP for South Dorset, the previous weekend he told May that she should stand down. One MP with whom Drax discussed the conversation said: “Richard told her to resign. She just went quiet. It was as if no one had ever said it to her directly before.”
46
47Drax refused to discuss his conversation with May but said: “We have given the country a solemn promise to deliver Brexit on March 29 and we cannot break our word. It would be utterly shameful. We’ve had two years of vacillation and capitulation. We need leadership and that’s what we do not have.”
48
49On the Monday, even as Bercow was scuppering her plans for another vote, May received Brady, who told her he had been contacted by a large number of MPs who wanted her to resign. Brady did not proffer an opinion, acting as a neutral conduit, but senior MPs say the leader of the “men in grey suits” is “at the end of his chain” and privately believes May’s time is coming to an end.
50
51Whip Abandons Ship
52
53Worse still for May, Smith knew his own team had lost confidence in the prime minister. Two weeks earlier the entire whips’ office had been to see her to listen to a pitch on her plans for domestic agenda. Paul Maynard, one of the senior whips who voted leave, said: “I’ve heard enough. When I was told that we would have to come over and talk to you I began to cry. I said, ‘I don’t want to go over and talk to that woman any more. She’s betrayed Brexit, destroying our party. I want her gone.’”
54
55May replied: “I’m sorry you feel that way . . .”
56
57Maynard then said he hadn’t finished and “continued to give her both barrels”, a source said. One of those present said: “I’ve never seen anything like it. She has lost all authority in the party and is totally deluded about her ability to govern.”
58
59When his colleagues backed up Maynard, one observer said: “It was like Murder on the Orient Express”, in which each character plunges in the knife.
60
61The first U-turn
62
63On the Wednesday morning, Downing Street briefed that May would only ask for a short extension until June 30. She used prime minister’s questions to twice explain that “as prime minister” she could not countenance a longer delay. ERG MPs who had felt under pressure were off the hook since no deal at the end of a short delay now seemed back on the cards. And that is where things really began to go wrong for May.
64
65May’s allies say she was not just bullied into the change of heart. “In her gut she did not think the public would stomach a long extension,” one said. “She was thinking that way from Tuesday morning.”
66
67Remainers Revolt
68
69On Wednesday afternoon ministers digested the news of May’s volte-face as they sat in a no-deal planning meeting contemplating what one called “the catastrophe” of departing without a deal.
70
71Greg Clark, the business secretary, expressed concern that ministers would face censure for allowing no deal to go ahead knowing what they did of the problems. He asked Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, “whether allowing no deal would be breaking the ministerial code because we know how bad it might be”.
72
73Another minister said: “We’re sitting there contemplating the length of queues and the size of the riots and the shortages of medicines and when we might deploy the army and the prime minister has just put no deal back on the table. There was visceral anger.”
74
75These ministers are also concerned that a future public inquiry into the government’s stewardship of Brexit could find that they put the interests of the party before those of the country. One source who has read last week’s cabinet minutes said: “They quote the prime minister saying not delivering Brexit ‘would be damaging to the Conservative Party’. There are references to the party needing to elect councillors in the local elections. If this all goes wrong it will be quite damning actually.”
76
77May losing support
78
79May’s position began eroding quickly on Wednesday. A meeting with opposition leaders descended into farce when Jeremy Corbyn walked out rather than share a room with Chuka Umunna of the Independent Group, who had defected from Labour last month.
80
81An attempt to woo Boris Johnson by dangling the prospect that the second phase of negotiations would see the Brexit department handed a new remit failed to impress the former foreign secretary. Amid rumours that some of May’s political team were plotting a last-ditch strategy to save her by calling a general election this week, Johnson pressed May repeatedly to rule out standing again.
82
83She stonily repeated her pledge not to run again in 2022 but on three separate occasions did not rule out calling a snap election in the coming weeks. As evening drew in on Wednesday, May was locked in a meeting with 20 Eurosceptics who had reluctantly switched to backing her Brexit deal on the second meaningful vote. She found that only a handful were still prepared to back her. Philip Davies and Ben Bradley both called for her to resign.
84
85Bradley said May was the wrong person to lead the second phase of talks. “Having had 40-odd conversations with colleagues over the weekend, the key factor is not the deal but what happens afterwards,” he said. “They don’t have trust in you, prime minister, to re-establish cabinet responsibility and to have the right plans to get a better long-term relationship. The only way it is likely to get through is if you agree to leave in the summer.”
86
87The prime minister replied: “Hmmm.”
88
89The Statement
90
91That meeting meant that May missed the 8.15pm planned start of her statement to the voters. She might, in retrospect, have been better to miss it altogether. Having decided on a strategy of wooing Labour MPs rather than Brexiteers, May decided to insult them instead.
92
93The reaction was swift and brutal. Lisa Nandy, a Labour MP who the chief whip had been wooing for months, branded the speech “disgraceful”. Others warned that May would have blood on her hands if her “parliament v the people” theme led to violence. “Unlike her, we don’t all have police protection officers wandering around with us,” said one Eurosceptic. “We are alone on train platforms.”
94
95Gavin Barwell, May’s chief of staff, was seen in parliament’s Portcullis House shortly after the broadcast. “He looked like he was expecting people to come up to him and congratulate him and quite quickly he was surrounded by MPs saying: ‘What an earth have you done?’”
96
97In one of the Tory MP WhatsApp groups, Ross Thomson, the MP for Aberdeen South, said: “I have just finished a surgery. As a councillor, MSP and now MP I’ve never had any issues. Today for the first time ever I had people who were extremely aggressive and rude to me and my staff. The PM’s statement was not just ill-judged, it was downright reckless.”
98
99Most furious was Julian Smith who got a copy of the speech only “when it was too late to change it”. Smith was already at loggerheads with Barwell and now he went to war with Robbie Gibb, the director of communications, who oversaw the writing of the speech. One source said: “The chief and Barwell are no longer speaking to each other.”
100
101One Tory who agreed with Smith said: “Theresa bears the impression of the last person she speaks to. On Wednesday that person was Robbie.” Another said: “He’s spent too much time trying to deliver Brexit and not enough time trying to sell it, which is his job.”
102
103May on the edge
104
105Others saw in the speech a prime minister who had finally snapped after two years of pressure the like of which most prime ministers have never experienced. “I think the problem is that her decisions are now being made on an emotional response to parliament’s actions,” one aide said. “People beg for her to show some emotion. But she just plods one foot in front of the other. But she’s through with parliament and is reacting emotionally or irrationally.”
106
107Insiders say the prime minister was reduced to tears by her humiliation in the second meaningful vote and that a doctor was called to tend to her when she lost her voice in the midst of the crisis.
108
109The House of Commons authorities were so concerned about her wellbeing that — three sources have told The Sunday Times — the serjeant at arms took action.
110
111“They were so worried about her collapsing that they put a protocol plan in place. They had a plan if she fainted to get her out of there.” One cabinet minister was overheard before Christmas criticising May’s “lack of stamina” and blaming her ill health for her inability to govern.
112
113This weekend cabinet ministers have told this newspaper that the prime minister’s judgment was“erratic” and “haywire” — which has led most of the cabinet to the conclusion that she must promise to step down or face a wave of cabinet resignations and public demands for her head. One faction is seeking to install David Lidington, her de facto deputy, as caretaker prime minister.
114
115Those around her in Downing Street have lost faith in her ability to turn the situation around. “It’s pretty dysfunctional in there,” said one Tory. “I got a text from someone in No 10 last week just saying: ‘Let’s face it, it’s all f*****.’”
116
117There is frustration from some special advisers that May’s husband Philip continues to urge her to fight on. A ministerial aide said: “Philip May isn’t helping. He’s always telling her to fight on but at this stage in proceedings Denis Thatcher was saying, ‘Time’s up, old girl, time to call it a day.’”
118
119Tomorrow May will face a crunch cabinet meeting that could seal her fate and an attempt by MPs to seize control of the Commons agenda to allow indicative votes on Wednesday, which could pave the way towards a soft Brexit.
120
121A senior figure in the ERG compares the party now to the character played by James Caan in the film adaptation of Stephen King’s horror novel, Misery, in which an author is strapped to a bed and mutilated by his biggest fan. “She’s like Kathy Bates in Misery. She loves us so much that she’s holding us captive and she’s breaking every bone in our bodies. She is grinding miserably forward, breaking us all with her devotion to duty. There’s an old saying that when it looks like everyone else is out step, you have to realise that it is actually you that is out of step.”